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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #82,881
  • Edited 8:59am Jun 4, 2020 8:47am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting tehnoob
{quote} Hmm, this is more of what I was seeing. You had the tight yellow range, part of the narrow range we 've been seeing for the last several days, and the bigger context was my "deja-vu"/history rhymes expectation that there would be a spike UP from that range. So I was biased for a break long from the range. But I wanted to buy at the bottom of the range. Then, we saw the scary, accelerating run to the bottom of the range. In my experience, when we are trapped in a well defined narrow range like that and you get a SUDDEN, SCARY run from one...

I think we are about to see a 4hr bear flag. Let's see. The opening flag seems to compliment the closing one so... Watching. If so I will get in at 109.16 area going back to 107. The FOMC statement is next week. I have niticed the trend towards those decisions start the thursday before it. Meaning tonight we should start in the direction it will take after the decision.

None of the time frames show the flag, so.. andiamo.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,882
  • Jun 4, 2020 9:06am Jun 4, 2020 9:06am
I think I see an old friend... That first move down being the FIRST part of the expansion. Meaning mentally turn the second pic upside down.

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,883
  • Jun 4, 2020 12:03pm Jun 4, 2020 12:03pm
Hey traders, first time posting here.
UJ H4 idea imho

Cheers
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whether you think you can or can't either way you are right
  • #82,884
  • Jun 4, 2020 1:28pm Jun 4, 2020 1:28pm
109.4 on deck it looks like.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,885
  • Jun 4, 2020 1:35pm Jun 4, 2020 1:35pm
Quoting joyride
Hey traders, first time posting here. UJ H4 idea imho Cheers {image}
Be careful. I smell a bull trap coming. I think it will form that "support" you have been waiting for and then dip back to 107. Looking left you see where it did simiilarly before. USD had bad news today yet we are going up. Only way that makes sense to me is the hedge funds are selling, which creates bullish intent as sellers decrease in amount, and those selling hold out for higher prices. They already signaled that with the 9am EST. bearish candle.
Oh.. and no humble opinions allowed her. Only bold and proud ones. Just kidding. Welcome!!!
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,886
  • Edited 2:23pm Jun 4, 2020 1:47pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} I think we are about to see a 4hr bear flag. Let's see. The opening flag seems to compliment the closing one so... Watching. If so I will get in at 109.16 area going back to 107. The FOMC statement is next week. I have niticed the trend towards those decisions start the thursday before it. Meaning tonight we should start in the direction it will take after the decision. None of the time frames show the flag, so.. andiamo. {image}
4hr flag didn't show up. No flags on any time frames yet. Thought a 1hr one was showing, up but NOT. We did however see a nice Bear trap at the 109.16 area. I think we are due for a nice rip to 109.4 which will hurt anyone who jumped in at 109-109.16 area. If it happens it will also engage bulls to go long just in time to hit that 109.4 area and turn around. This falls in line with the puffer fish's rhyming forcast as well. If it does so by 5pm EST. (00:00 zulu), and closes there we will have a nice bear flag. Edit. The volume makes it seem more likely it will happen during Asian market though..

Trade carefully.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,887
  • Jun 4, 2020 2:32pm Jun 4, 2020 2:32pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Be careful. I smell a bull trap coming. I think it will form that "support" you have been waiting for and then dip back to 107. Looking left you see where it did simiilarly before. USD had bad news today yet we are going up. Only way that makes sense to me is the hedge funds are selling, which creates bullish intent as sellers decrease in amount, and those selling hold out for higher prices. They already signaled that with the 9am EST. bearish candle. Oh.. and no humble opinions allowed her. Only bold and proud ones. Just kidding. Welcome!!!...
Based on the completed bat pattern, I am looking for short set ups. with tp1 107.95, tp2 107.19
Cheers
whether you think you can or can't either way you are right
  • #82,888
  • Jun 4, 2020 3:10pm Jun 4, 2020 3:10pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} 4hr flag didn't show up. No flags on any time frames yet. Thought a 1hr one was showing, up but NOT. We did however see a nice Bear trap at the 109.16 area. I think we are due for a nice rip to 109.4 which will hurt anyone who jumped in at 109-109.16 area. If it happens it will also engage bulls to go long just in time to hit that 109.4 area and turn around. This falls in line with the puffer fish's rhyming forcast as well. If it does so by 5pm EST. (00:00 zulu), and closes there we will have a nice bear flag. Edit. The volume makes it seem...

US Market closed at 109.16. Back on day's highs. Dow rallied at the end to close with a small gain. 60 minutes to Daily candle close. (hmm just relalized I haven't pulled up a Daily chart.).. and BOOM. There goes the flag I was looking for. Level was set end of March. Adjusting tp to 109.32. Previous daily bear flag was just shy of 109.4.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,889
  • Jun 4, 2020 3:12pm Jun 4, 2020 3:12pm
Quoting joyride
{quote} Based on the completed bat pattern, I am looking for short set ups. with tp1 107.95, tp2 107.19 Cheers
I agree with you. Just be careful. Gonna see some red before green. Or stack them racks!
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,890
  • Jun 4, 2020 3:25pm Jun 4, 2020 3:25pm
Quoting tehnoob
{quote} Have you got a couple chart examples of what you noticed?
Today's Daily chart is actually a better and cleaner example of what I mean...
Here look. End of March. Daily has a nice bear flag in the form of an engulfing Bullish candle. This flag set the level. Now today we return to that same level... Yet no flag. In fact the opposite. The candles actually do the opposite and start going smaller. So, what I think I am seeing is that once the level is set... another flag is not required to signal a reverse. Simply wait for price to hit the level again, and it turns without presenting the bearish flag like it did previously. So in this case the flags MIGHT be on the lower time frames, as we are too close for the typical one. What lends this credibility is that S/R levels usually require more of a "running start" to be broken, and there is no room for that on the 4hr chart. There may however be on the lower time frames. Am I making sense?


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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,891
  • Jun 4, 2020 4:18pm Jun 4, 2020 4:18pm
For my part I am completely undecided. I've been looking for a fat AJ short and fortunately TP 2 small trades yesterday. Such a bull week UJ too. I like pivots but pivots have limitations bet there's some DD for pivoteers on these yen pairs. It's Friday. Normally I consider Friday's range days but after a big week will it continue or will it retrace ??? TBH I will probably just scalp volatility on hour changeover of Asian session , 5 pips here and there..
  • #82,892
  • Jun 5, 2020 12:20am Jun 5, 2020 12:20am
daily resistance has capped gains for now, still a strong market, will look for a reason to get long today...
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Get the Lag out
  • #82,893
  • Jun 5, 2020 4:43am Jun 5, 2020 4:43am
#USDJPY / H4 & H1
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  • #82,894
  • Jun 5, 2020 5:20am Jun 5, 2020 5:20am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Now today we return to that same level... Yet no flag. In fact the opposite. The candles actually do the opposite and start going smaller. So, what I think I am seeing is that once the level is set... another flag is not required to signal a reverse. {image}
Yes, if you see the same set up as in a prior decline/rise form the same level, then it is more likely a trap, not a signal that the same action will repeat itself.

Atm, after the 200pip spike up from 107, I have no opinion on what's next here. If I have a bias, it's more short at around this level, only because the stock markets seem to have gone berserk over the past few days, so might be due a drop.

But I don't know what kind of news would cause such a drop. I'm sure the news will present themselves right when it's time. Maybe a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, or news of a second virus wave?
  • #82,895
  • Jun 5, 2020 7:28am Jun 5, 2020 7:28am
Quoting tehnoob
{quote} Yes, if you see the same set up as in a prior decline/rise form the same level, then it is more likely a trap, not a signal that the same action will repeat itself. Atm, after the 200pip spike up from 107, I have no opinion on what's next here. If I have a bias, it's more short at around this level, only because the stock markets seem to have gone berserk over the past few days, so might be due a drop. But I don't know what kind of news would cause such a drop. I'm sure the news will present themselves right when it's time. Maybe a Chinese...
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,896
  • Jun 5, 2020 8:00am Jun 5, 2020 8:00am
Watching 109.8 for a 108 bounce
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,897
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:23am Jun 5, 2020 10:23am
Quoting tehnoob
{quote} Yes, if you see the same set up as in a prior decline/rise form the same level, then it is more likely a trap, not a signal that the same action will repeat itself. Atm, after the 200pip spike up from 107, I have no opinion on what's next here. If I have a bias, it's more short at around this level, only because the stock markets seem to have gone berserk over the past few days, so might be due a drop. But I don't know what kind of news would cause such a drop. I'm sure the news will present themselves right when it's time. Maybe a Chinese...

As far as bad news I am watching June 12th-15th. 14 days after the first protests. I will truly be convinced if we are near 111 or 112 around that day. I am looking for a close up here around 109.8 for the weekend. The news was just too euphoric. Over the weekend we have OPEC meetings, as well as JPY news that could help the small drop to 108 along with the general "overbought" sentiment. From there. 111-112 area just in time for more pandemic news, or the FOMC statements. I have little trust in the FOMC though as he has been supporting things.

Fundamentals are the gas that move technical vehicles. Just my thoughts.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,898
  • Jun 6, 2020 7:20pm Jun 6, 2020 7:20pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ication-error/

This may help Bears.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,899
  • Jun 6, 2020 7:29pm Jun 6, 2020 7:29pm
Quoting hellsbells
For my part I am completely undecided. I've been looking for a fat AJ short and fortunately TP 2 small trades yesterday. Such a bull week UJ too. I like pivots but pivots have limitations bet there's some DD for pivoteers on these yen pairs. It's Friday. Normally I consider Friday's range days but after a big week will it continue or will it retrace ??? TBH I will probably just scalp volatility on hour changeover of Asian session , 5 pips here and there..
I think will go more high yet.

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  • #82,900
  • Jun 6, 2020 7:41pm Jun 6, 2020 7:41pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} As far as bad news I am watching June 12th-15th. 14 days after the first protests. I will truly be convinced if we are near 111 or 112 around that day. I am looking for a close up here around 109.8 for the weekend. The news was just too euphoric. Over the weekend we have OPEC meetings, as well as JPY news that could help the small drop to 108 along with the general "overbought" sentiment. From there. 111-112 area just in time for more pandemic news, or the FOMC statements. I have little trust in the FOMC though as he has been supporting...
Not often I actually see someone on FF thinking like a strategist
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