Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2466 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #49,301
  • May 31, 2020 3:18am May 31, 2020 3:18am
Iddd.
Cable 15 minute bar break.

Below we have the 08-00 bar, with high/low and a range of 14
Attached Image


Below.... the Low broke, But for how many pips, We do not know???? But good odds of making +5.
Attached Image


Below, and price kept dropping to approx +40
Attached Image


Soooooo, what happened then????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 15 D.png Size: 18 KB

Back up it went... people would of been busted , people would of gained.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,302
  • May 31, 2020 3:25am May 31, 2020 3:25am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} I went as far back as my MT4 would allow me. I changed the max bars to 250k and everything. I didn't know what else to do. My MT4 allowed me to go as far back as August 26th 2019. I also decided to remove the BE's from my stats and go ahead and count them as Losses. I did this because I didn't remember to accurately keep track of how many times my TP's would have gotten stopped out. I wanted my stats to be as accurate as possible. I also kept track of the Max Pips traveled from trigger to see what was the most possible pips you could have...

Here's a more in depth breakdown of "pips traveled after trigger"


20 - 25 Range........8 times price traveled less than 20 pips
5 times price traveled between 20-30 pips
2 times price traveled between 30-40 pips
12 times price traveled more than 40+ pips


25.1 - 30 Range...... 6 times price traveled less than 20 pips
4 times price traveled between 20-30 pips
0 times price traveled between 30-40 pips
6 times price traveled more than 40+ pips

30.1 - 35 Range.......1 times price traveled less than 20 pips
0 times price traveled between 20-30 pips
0 times price traveled between 30-40 pips
3 times price traveled more than 40+ pips

35.1 - 40 Range......1 times price traveled less than 20 pips
0 times price traveled between 20-30 pips
0 times price traveled between 30-40 pips
2 times price traveled more than 40+ pips
  • #49,303
  • May 31, 2020 3:28am May 31, 2020 3:28am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} I went as far back as my MT4 would allow me. I changed the max bars to 250k and everything. I didn't know what else to do. My MT4 allowed me to go as far back as August 26th 2019. I also decided to remove the BE's from my stats and go ahead and count them as Losses. I did this because I didn't remember to accurately keep track of how many times my TP's would have gotten stopped out. I wanted my stats to be as accurate as possible. I also kept track of the Max Pips traveled from trigger to see what was the most possible pips you could have...
Hi Bo, what you are doing is excellent.
What i would NEVER EVER DO, is average pips. ADR is an exception as is the Daily Pivot
That is where Frequency Distribution Stats come into play.

without contradicting my self.
Look at chart below, cable daily . lets look at the 5 day adr (lets pretend they are 6 08-00 open 15 min bars)
The last candle on right will throw the stats.because it is averaged into the next adr stats..
The fd stats will be more true, but we do need a bigger survey
Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,304
  • May 31, 2020 3:29am May 31, 2020 3:29am
Here's everything I came up with all in one post...........

08-15 GU using a Minimum Range of 20 and a Maximum Range of 40 and a TP of 10 pips. ( No Trade when price opens less than 1 pip from a trigger)


8/26/19 - 5/31/20

20 - 25 Range...... 20 TP's 7 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 48.6

25.1 - 30 Range...... 11 TP's 5 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 41.0

30.1 - 35 Range...... 3 TP's 1 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 41.7

35.1 - 40 Range...... 3 TP's 0 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 48.3



Here's a more in depth breakdown of "pips traveled after trigger"


20 - 25 Range........8 times price traveled less than 20 pips
5 times price traveled between 20-30 pips
2 times price traveled between 30-40 pips
12 times price traveled more than 40+ pips


25.1 - 30 Range...... 6 times price traveled less than 20 pips
4 times price traveled between 20-30 pips
0 times price traveled between 30-40 pips
6 times price traveled more than 40+ pips

30.1 - 35 Range.......1 times price traveled less than 20 pips
0 times price traveled between 20-30 pips
0 times price traveled between 30-40 pips
3 times price traveled more than 40+ pips

35.1 - 40 Range......1 times price traveled less than 20 pips
0 times price traveled between 20-30 pips
0 times price traveled between 30-40 pips
2 times price traveled more than 40+ pips




I went as far back as my MT4 would allow me. I changed the max bars to 250k and everything. I didn't know what else to do. My MT4 allowed me to go as far back as August 26th 2019. I also decided to remove the BE's from my stats and go ahead and count them as Losses. I did this because I didn't remember to accurately keep track of how many times my TP's would have gotten stopped out. I wanted my stats to be as accurate as possible. I also kept track of the Max Pips traveled from trigger to see what was the most possible pips you could have gotten from each trade. I then divided this total by the number of trades to see what the "average" pips traveled after trigger. I know this is an "average" but it is broken down per category.
  • #49,305
  • May 31, 2020 3:35am May 31, 2020 3:35am
Quoting bojack34
Here's everything I came up with all in one post........... 08-15 GU using a Minimum Range of 20 and a Maximum Range of 40 and a TP of 10 pips. ( No Trade is when price opens less than 1 pip from a trigger) 8/26/19 - 5/31/20 20 - 25 Range...... 20 TP's 7 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 48.6 25.1 - 30 Range...... 11 TP's 5 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 41.0 30.1 - 35 Range...... 3 TP's 1 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 41.7 35.1 - 40 Range...... 3 TP's 0 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 48.3 Here's a more in depth...
my original stats went back many many years, but i realise now the stats do not have to go that far back.
For instance, stats over years and year show the 2 hour bar is not consistent, but if you narrow the time span, the 2 hour bar shows good results.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,306
  • May 31, 2020 3:46am May 31, 2020 3:46am
While i am at it,

Did Lem or Iddd post about Trend.????

the Trend is your friend only if you have a winning trade.
i honestly do not believe in it <<<<<<< odd thing to say.

Do we live/trade on past direction or do we trade today.?????????
chart below, Cable daily
Trend is short, how many times would the bears. shorters of been busted?????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend .png Size: 17 KB
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,307
  • May 31, 2020 3:48am May 31, 2020 3:48am
Rant over, now try and get on the beach if there is room lol.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,308
  • May 31, 2020 4:43am May 31, 2020 4:43am
Hi guys
new to the thread here myself (followed turnip over from Laura’s thread) I’m only a couple of hundred pages in so far but looking forward to catching up.
Many thanks Bojak for your notes. Gives me a head start!
cheers
Nick
  • #49,309
  • May 31, 2020 7:52am May 31, 2020 7:52am
Quoting billytt
{quote} my original stats went back many many years, but i realise now the stats do not have to go that far back. For instance, stats over years and year show the 2 hour bar is not consistent, but if you narrow the time span, the 2 hour bar shows good results.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cg9JqLo.png Size: 31 KB


Thanks for your help, will do my stat from tomorrow
  • #49,310
  • May 31, 2020 8:53am May 31, 2020 8:53am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} I went as far back as my MT4 would allow me. I changed the max bars to 250k and everything. I didn't know what else to do. My MT4 allowed me to go as far back as August 26th 2019. I also decided to remove the BE's from my stats and go ahead and count them as Losses. I did this because I didn't remember to accurately keep track of how many times my TP's would have gotten stopped out. I wanted my stats to be as accurate as possible. I also kept track of the Max Pips traveled from trigger to see what was the most possible pips you could have...
Hi Bo - not sure if you've tried downloading extra data in the history center menu option (not at screen so can't remember which menu it is)....it might then allow you to scroll back a bit further in the chart window.
  • #49,311
  • May 31, 2020 9:03am May 31, 2020 9:03am
Quoting stu
{quote} Hi Bo - not sure if you've tried downloading extra data in the history center menu option (not at screen so can't remember which menu it is)....it might then allow you to scroll back a bit further in the chart window.
Click on f2 takes to history center. Should be able to go back a lot further. Anyway he's done a good job with the posts he's made.
  • #49,312
  • Edited 12:05pm May 31, 2020 9:47am | Edited 12:05pm
Quoting billytt
Iddd. Cable 15 minute bar break. Below we have the 08-00 bar, with high/low and a range of 14 {image} Below.... the Low broke, But for how many pips, We do not know???? But good odds of making +5. {image} Below, and price kept dropping to approx +40 {image} Soooooo, what happened then???? {image} Back up it went... people would of been busted , people would of gained.
Hello.

Thanks for the charts and explanations so far, I did also read through the notes member BO posted.

I will have to read through more of your posts guys and also go through these notes again for a few more times.

It looks like many of you here trading for a long time already and the techniques used are the results of a huge foundation of experience gained over the time.

The notes as example somehow seems to start in the middle or at least depends on some very good understanding of the basics of trading.

From the charts you posted and the notes (what i understand so far) is the following.

1.) You enter a trade by the high or low of the 00:00 4H or 08:00 M15 bar formed at that time

Question: How do you execute the order? I guess by setting a pending buy/sell order at the high and low of the bar? And then simply wait which order gets triggered, removing the other one and aim for a fixed TP of 5? If it gets hit, trade done, if not open a counter trade at the opposite end of the bar where it retraces back to gets open as the recovery.

If only aiming for +5 I guess a SL of let’s say 20 would only makes sense if the tendency of a winning trade is very high otherwise a few winning trades would probably not compensate for a few more trades stopped out at 20 :-)

2.) Is that all? It actually sounds to simple/good to work out / give consistent profitable results by the end of a month by just doing that like a robot.

Which leads me to

3) So the ADR is kind a the only „filter“ here I would have to check before placing a trade?

Range of that bar is to small = no trade
Range of that bar is to big = no trade
Range of that bar is „ok“ = trade.

So I would simply do that every day for GBP/USD as example at 8 or 0 UK time (M15 or H4).

So at a perfect example where the range would be ok for 20 active trading days I would have done a 20 trades for one bar, either got me a +5 or what?

Imaging to leave out the recovery counter trade, aiming for a +5, where would I set a reasonable SL?

4) That’s it as the very core? No other filters needed to pre-filter out a potential trade for the day? No need to make any further analyses in advance than checking the ADR and placing my buy/sell order at the high and low of the bar and wait to get either +5, the SL or recovery trade triggered in case of a retrace before hitting that TP.

Now I guess you will think I am a complete newbie, yes probably you are right :-)
  • #49,313
  • May 31, 2020 1:04pm May 31, 2020 1:04pm
[quote=lddd;12973627]{quote} Hello. Thanks for the charts and explanations so far, I did also read through the notes member BO posted. I will have to read through more of your posts guys and also go through these notes again for a few more times. It looks like many of you here trading for a long time already and the tec


Hi Iddd,
Breakout trading is very simple and a very old proven method.
We mainly use the adr to fix a failed trade, every pair has a daily range and we ideally need a volatile pair.
I think you might be too bright to understand the simplicity of it.

On paper what i do is not what the money management guys profess.
But it works.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,314
  • May 31, 2020 1:05pm May 31, 2020 1:05pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} my original stats went back many many years, but i realise now the stats do not have to go that far back. For instance, stats over years and year show the 2 hour bar is not consistent, but if you narrow the time span, the 2 hour bar shows good results.
Power of work there from Bo. Nice.

One quick question re that for Billy.

Is the 20 minimum pip for the 15 min bar actually pretty big? I get that to get the numbers Bo was looking for - and the less likelihood of a counter having to be used - then that is no doubt the reason for the figure. However, it seems like you'd lose our on a heck of a lot of trades.

Just curious.
  • #49,315
  • May 31, 2020 1:08pm May 31, 2020 1:08pm
Too simple to work?

Just do what the other 97% of traders do then...oh wait...
  • #49,316
  • May 31, 2020 1:29pm May 31, 2020 1:29pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Power of work there from Bo. Nice. One quick question re that for Billy. Is the 20 minimum pip for the 15 min bar actually pretty big? I get that to get the numbers Bo was looking for - and the less likelihood of a counter having to be used - then that is no doubt the reason for the figure. However, it seems like you'd lose our on a heck of a lot of trades. Just curious.
Hi Lem, i do not understand the question sorry
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,317
  • Edited 1:52pm May 31, 2020 1:30pm | Edited 1:52pm
Quoting lemercenaire
Too simple to work? Just do what the other 97% of traders do then...oh wait...
another one Lem, i do not understand, lol


sorry Lem, i get the question lol. i re read the post.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,318
  • May 31, 2020 1:33pm May 31, 2020 1:33pm
[quote=billytt;12973808]
Quoting lddd
{quote} Hi Iddd, Breakout trading is very simple and a very old proven method. We mainly use the adr to fix a failed trade, every pair has a daily range and we ideally need a volatile pair. I think you might be too bright to understand the simplicity of it. On paper what i do is not what the money management guys profess. But it works.
Ok. Understand, so do you have some stats like how many percentage of the time a UK open 8:00 M15 bar broke to hit your TP compared to how many times it doesn‘t for let’s say May 2020?

I will make some backtest my self the next days but would be interested to hear from you.

Yes it sounds all pretty simple and straight forward, I don’t know about money management here, so that’s why I asked.

It looks to me that setting a fixed SL is not needed? And you do that by a counter trade, so my questions was more like if I would like to set a SL instead because I am not experienced yet to do that counter trade thing, if if then still works.

Some words about brokers would also be cool, I trade on a ECN account where I pay commission and and a variable spread (most between 0,3-1 Pips on GBP/USD) is that fine to trade this method?

If you say TP +5 I guess you mean excluding spread and commission so I would probably more like have to set a +10 target so i am still making a profit.

regards
  • #49,319
  • May 31, 2020 1:52pm May 31, 2020 1:52pm
Quoting lddd
Quoting billytt
{quote} Ok. Understand, so do you have some stats like how many percentage of the time a UK open 8:00 M15 bar broke to hit your TP compared to how many times it doesn‘t for let’s say May 2020? I will make some backtest my self the next days but would be interested to hear from you. Yes it sounds all pretty simple and straight forward, I don’t know about money management here, so that’s why I asked. It looks to me that setting a fixed SL is not needed? And you do that by a counter trade, so my questions was more like if I
...
I had stats for 20 years, i have stats of stats.
Using a stop can be used but it is then a different game.
Brokers i cannot comment on, mainly because i do not know.

You need to start watching charts, look at breaks, see if a break carries on, or retraces
What happens if it retraces to Fail????? Plan B, the daily range.
It is simple method but you need to know the method.
Just keep watching.studying charts.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,320
  • May 31, 2020 2:12pm May 31, 2020 2:12pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Lem, i do not understand the question sorry
Bo based the "best" stats on a minimum range of 20 pips. What I was asking was isn't 20 pips a pretty big range for the 15 min bar?
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