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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #49,281
  • May 29, 2020 11:59pm May 29, 2020 11:59pm
Quoting lddd
Hey, From Post 1 3... CABLE 08-00 15 MINUTE BAR BREAKOUT Where to find instructions for it?
Hi Iddd,
hello and welcome.
Lem will gladly answer your question. yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,282
  • May 30, 2020 12:07am May 30, 2020 12:07am
Quoting lddd
Hey, From Post 1 3... CABLE 08-00 15 MINUTE BAR BREAKOUT Where to find instructions for it?
Hi Iddd,
Regarding 15 minute Breakout method,
1st Google ,,,Forex Breakout Methods? or better still, UK Open, Breakout Methods.

Breakout method is a very old style and i have perfected it for when it Fails.
You need a bank Roll to cover trades/margin and stats, experience.

We learn how to trade just like going to school and retaining information.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,283
  • May 30, 2020 6:10am May 30, 2020 6:10am
Quoting lddd
Hey, From Post 1 3... CABLE 08-00 15 MINUTE BAR BREAKOUT Where to find instructions for it?
Between Billy's ears.
  • #49,284
  • May 30, 2020 6:21am May 30, 2020 6:21am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Between Billy's ears.
Seriously though, read up on candle breaks as Billy says. That, at its heart, is all that it is, as is the EJ Daily, The Frankenbreak, The Dead Zone and Claudia's Little Blue Box.

The thing about this thread is that it's not really a "system" thread. It's more a place for us to let ideas and concepts grow organically out of one another's spitballin'.

Then a hefty chunk of hard-wired and battle-hardened techniques are layered on top.

It's all simple - just not easy.

Anyway, if that's not enough to put you off, perhaps Bo or Mr Green can share their packages of excellent notes they both put together when they too were learning what the hell goes on in here.

That's up to them. Ask nicely.
  • #49,285
  • May 30, 2020 7:19am May 30, 2020 7:19am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Seriously though, read up on candle breaks as Billy says. That, at its heart, is all that it is, as is the EJ Daily, The Frankenbreak, The Dead Zone and Claudia's Little Blue Box. The thing about this thread is that it's not really a "system" thread. It's more a place for us to let ideas and concepts grow organically out of one another's spitballin'. Then a hefty chunk of hard-wired and battle-hardened techniques are layered on top. It's all simple - just not easy. Anyway, if that's not enough to put you off, perhaps Bo or Mr Green can share...
Ah okay. Well I got some personal message to have a look at this thread which might could help me to improve in my trading.

I tried all kind of systems/strategies over the years but could not find any one leading to consistent results so far.

I mostly tried trend following methods based on indicators but found out most of them can’t help me and probably have a higher tendency to work at all only in trending markets and applying them to higher time frames.

Also most of them required to scan a lot of multiple markets every day for possible setups which for now is still a overkill for me and probably one of the reasons I could not find longer term success.

What I am looking for is a starting point of any method/strategy/system that most likely doesn’t need anything else than a naked candle stick chart and a fixed amount of time per day.

My preferred trading times would be Frankfurt Open until London Close and my goals are short term based (at least not having to hold positions over night).

Dream scenario would be just having to follow up with one market every day, that could be an currency pair, any index or what else that would make sense.

Now M15 breakout uk, this could mean all kind of things to me, I will for sure google and try to get more informations

If anyone is willing to help me finally get into the real direction to learn how to trade, I would highly appreciate any help.

regards and have a nice weekend.
  • #49,286
  • May 30, 2020 7:47am May 30, 2020 7:47am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Ah okay. Well I got some personal message to have a look at this thread which might could help me to improve in my trading. I tried all kind of systems/strategies over the years but could not find any one leading to consistent results so far. I mostly tried trend following methods based on indicators but found out most of them can’t help me and probably have a higher tendency to work at all only in trending markets and applying them to higher time frames. Also most of them required to scan a lot of multiple markets every day for possible...
Grand. To be honest it does sound like you might be in the right place - you certainly seem ready to be able to listen to what you will be told here.

As I said, perhaps the best point to start would be via Bo and/or Mr G's notes. So for now, maybe wait to see if you get a response from them.

Following that, it would probably be possible to give a quick rundown of what we do per the main method, which is The Billy Bar.

The main problem will be the fact that we use counter trading techniques here and those cannot be recommended for new traders.

However, that being said, Bo also developed his own take on this, as he was not keen on counters. So again, reading his thoughts would be helpful.

To sum up, if you are willing to put in the work, I can see that you could get something going here, or at the very least see if it is for you.

I would suggest however, that till either if those guys get back here in reply, that you at least speed read as much of the threads you can over the weekend. It's important that you get some kind of idea of how all this came about and the DNA that we build on.

Hope you stick around.
  • #49,287
  • May 30, 2020 5:12pm May 30, 2020 5:12pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} The main problem will be the fact that we use counter trading techniques here and those cannot be recommended for new traders.
By the way that’s what I hear and read often, but why actually is that? As far as I can say from my own experience trading with the trend seems to me not any easier.

That might be because I could not grasp how a „past“ trending market I may see from a chart after analyzing it should help me to reach a higher probability of success by going with the trend where every single time frame again could have his own trend.

I really actually find this „trade with the trend“ „the trend is your friend“ very hard to understand. Also what I see most of the times watching the currency markets, there is rarely an clear trending structure to spot, especially not from a intraday perspective.

So therefor such open range break out might require less subjectivity chart analyse.

But after searching the web for open range breakout strategies on UK open, there is so many information to find it’s impossible for me to know what really works and what is just written by some self claimed professionals only want me to sign up for their high priced trading courses.

So right now I actually would need to have a starting point no matter what that looks like leaving out as much as subjectivity, doesn’t require a lot of skipping through tons of different markets or to many different time frames every day, because that’s where I don’t get any routine with it and i feel hard to understand actually any real trader making this for a living is doing it in such complicated subjective way like from what i read on 90% of the FF threads under systems.
  • #49,288
  • May 30, 2020 5:25pm May 30, 2020 5:25pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Seriously though, read up on candle breaks as Billy says. That, at its heart, is all that it is, as is the EJ Daily, The Frankenbreak, The Dead Zone and Claudia's Little Blue Box. The thing about this thread is that it's not really a "system" thread. It's more a place for us to let ideas and concepts grow organically out of one another's spitballin'. Then a hefty chunk of hard-wired and battle-hardened techniques are layered on top. It's all simple - just not easy. Anyway, if that's not enough to put you off, perhaps Bo or Mr Green can share...
Attached File(s)
File Type: txt 04-00 Break UPDATED NOTES.txt   44 KB | 223 downloads
  • #49,289
  • May 30, 2020 5:30pm May 30, 2020 5:30pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} By the way that’s what I hear and read often, but why actually is that? As far as I can say from my own experience trading with the trend seems to me not any easier. That might be because I could not grasp how a „past“ trending market I may see from a chart after analyzing it should help me to reach a higher probability of success by going with the trend where every single time frame again could have his own trend. I really actually find this „trade with the trend“ „the trend is your friend“ very hard to understand. Also what I see most...
Counter trading is nothing to do with trend trading or not. It is a technique which involves a second trade taken in the opposite direction to your initial entry should that one turn against you. A kind of hedge trade.

So, for instance, in the case of the Billy Bar trade (the range break of GU 15 min bar that opens at 08:00 UK time)...

Should you enter Long and you don't hit your +5, then price retraces against you, you would enter Short at the opposite end of the bar (the Low). That locks in whatever negative you have and you then wait for the next main trigger to begin to unwind that floating loss.

Billy and I work that part slightly differently, as I will enter the counter earlier, as price crosses the upper boundary of the body of the candle (either the Open or Close, depending on which is higher).

I also now operate a directional Bias, as does Sheppy.

We all have taken Billy's base method of entry but worked the trade management in slightly different ways. As noted earlier, Bo uses a hard stop, no counter at all.

Billy has his huge depth of frequency distribution stats to back his way of doing things and so you can trust that by running it as he intended, you are onto a winner.

Billy does have some secret sauce that he can't share but don't worry about that, you'll be fine without it. The mix will be a bit blander but will still taste better than pretty much anything out there.

As you say, because this is a constant and daily repeatable trade set up, it will certainly take all the other stresses and distractions out of your trading and most days you will be free to do whatever else you want with your day well before 09:00.
  • #49,290
  • May 30, 2020 5:32pm May 30, 2020 5:32pm
I see that as I was writing the above post, Bo has given you access to his awesome notes.

Many thanks due there.
  • #49,291
  • May 30, 2020 6:06pm May 30, 2020 6:06pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} {file}
Thanks a lot, will study it the next days.
  • #49,292
  • May 30, 2020 11:28pm May 30, 2020 11:28pm
Man i'm getting old. I can't stay awake like I used to. I'm in process of doing some manual backtesting of the 08-15 GU using a Minimum Range of 20 and a Maximum Range of 40 and a TP of 10 pips. I'm currently at Oct 24th 2019 and I'm at 30 TP and 6 SL and 1 No Trade ( No Trade is when price opens less than 1 pip from a trigger). I'm going to continue back testing until Jan 1 2019. That will give me 17 months of stats.

20-25 Range....17-3
25.1-30 Range....9-3
30.1-35 Range....2-0-1
35.1-40 Range....2-0


To Be Continued......
  • #49,293
  • May 31, 2020 12:11am May 31, 2020 12:11am
[quote=lemercenaire;12973178]{quote} Counter trading is nothing to do with trend trading or not. It is a technique which involves a second trade taken in the opposite direction to your initial entry should that one turn against you. A kind of hedge trade. So, for instance, in the case of the Billy Bar trade (the range break of GU 15 min bar that opens at 08:00 UK time)... Should you enter Long and you don't hit your +5, then price retraces against you, you would enter Short at the opposite end of the bar (the Low). That locks in whatever negative you have and you then wait for the next main trigger to begin to unwind that floating loss. Billy and I work that part slightly differently, as I will enter the counter earlier, as price crosses the upper boundary of the body of the candle (either the Open or Close, depending on which is higher). I also now operate a directional Bias, as does Sheppy. We all have taken Billy's base method of entry but worked the trade management in slightly different ways. As noted earlier, Bo uses a hard stop, no counter at all. Billy has his huge depth of frequency distribution stats to back his way of doing things and so you can trust that by running it as he intended, you are onto a winner.

Billy does have some secret sauce that he can't share but don't worry about that, you'll be fine without it. The mix will be a bit blander but will still taste better than pretty much anything out there.
Is it baking now, as well as gnomes, wine, gardening, newts .bees more wine, horses I thought Mary Berry had wandered in lol
Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,294
  • May 31, 2020 12:13am May 31, 2020 12:13am
Quoting bojack34
Man i'm getting old. I can't stay awake like I used to. I'm in process of doing some manual backtesting of the 08-15 GU using a Minimum Range of 20 and a Maximum Range of 40 and a TP of 10 pips. I'm currently at Oct 24th 2019 and I'm at 30 TP and 6 SL and 1 No Trade ( No Trade is when price opens less than 1 pip from a trigger). I'm going to continue back testing until Jan 1 2019. That will give me 17 months of stats. 20-25 Range....17-3 25.1-30 Range....9-3 30.1-35 Range....2-0-1 35.1-40 Range....2-0 To Be Continued......
Bo, hope your well.

your 20-25 range ,,,17-3 that is 17 wins 3 losses???
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,295
  • May 31, 2020 12:14am May 31, 2020 12:14am
[quote=lemercenaire;12973178]{quote} Counter trading is nothing to do with trend trading or not. It is a technique which involves a second trade taken in the opposite direction to your initial entry should that one turn against you. A kind of hedge trade. So, for instance, in the case of the Billy Bar trade (the range break of GU 15 min bar that opens at 08:00 UK time)... Should you enter Long and you don't hit your +5, then price retraces against you, you would enter Short at the opposite end of the bar (the Low). That locks in whatever negative you have and you then wait for the next main trigger to begin to unwind that floating loss. Billy and I work that part slightly differently, as I will enter the counter earlier, as price crosses the upper boundary of the body of the candle (either the Open or Close, depending on which is higher). I also now operate a directional Bias, as does Sheppy. We all have taken Billy's base method of entry but worked the trade management in slightly different ways. As noted earlier, Bo uses a hard stop, no counter at all. Billy has his huge depth of frequency distribution stats to back his way of doing things and so you can trust that by running it as he intended, you are onto a winner. Billy does have some secret sauce that he can't share but don't worry about that, you'll be fine without it. The mix will be a bit blander but will still taste better than pretty much anything out there. As you say, because this is a constant and daily repeatable trade set up,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,296
  • May 31, 2020 12:20am May 31, 2020 12:20am
[quote=billytt;12973345][quote=lemercenaire;12973178]{quote} Counter trading is nothing to do with trend trading or not. It is a technique which involves a second trade taken in the opposite direction to your initial entry should that one turn against you. A kind of hedge trade. So, for instance, in the case of the Billy Bar trade (the range break of GU 15 min bar that opens at 08:00 UK time)... Should you enter Long and you don't hit your +5, then price retraces against you, you would enter Short at the opposite end of the bar (the Low). That locks in whatever negative you have and you then wait for the next main trigger to begin to unwind that floating loss. Billy and I work that part slightly differently, as I will enter the counter earlier, as price crosses the upper boundary of the body of the candle (either the Open or Close, depending on which is higher). I also now operate a directional Bias, as does Sheppy. We all have taken Billy's base method of entry but worked the trade management in slightly different ways. As noted earlier, Bo uses a hard stop, no counter at all. Billy has his huge depth of frequency distribution stats to back his way of doing things and so you can trust that by running it as he intended, you are onto a winner. Billy does have some secret sauce that he can't share but don't worry about that, you'll be fine without it. The mix will be a bit blander but will still taste better than pretty much anything out there.

Good post, it isnt as though i have a secret, i have posted everything thing i do,. but excluded a couple of things. lol
At one time i would not of posted about the daily range, as this is a huge aid.
I use stats, and as i always post, If the example, 08-00 fails ,i fix off the 00-00.
What if there is another bar/area too??????.
i always want better odds/percentages
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,297
  • May 31, 2020 12:48am May 31, 2020 12:48am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Bo, hope your well. your 20-25 range ,,,17-3 that is 17 wins 3 losses???
Correct
  • #49,298
  • May 31, 2020 12:56am May 31, 2020 12:56am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks a lot, will study it the next days.
Hi Iddd ,
I realise i should of posted the 08-00 15 minute bar break,
BUT, i am showing the 00-00 4 hour bar, AND FOR FREE yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay. so no one else look.

Chart below is Cable, 00-00 to -4-00 bar UK Time. the 4 hour bar. With a High and a Low.and 21 range
attach]fri 29 5.png;3650895[/attach]

Chart below, The High broke so i entered Long. BUT FOR HOW MANY PIPS???????
After the event it is easy to say. HIGH BROKE FOR APPROX+30))
Attached Image


Chart below, Then Retrace to Break the Low.. BUT FOR HOW MANY PIPS?? Low Broke for approx 15 pips.
Attached Image


Lets see what happened with chart below.
Attached Image

Fri was approx my 4th/5th best trading opportunity but i still nailed it.
A lot of people would of made ££££££ but s lot more would of failed and mainly due to greed.
Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,299
  • May 31, 2020 1:02am May 31, 2020 1:02am
Quoting bojack34
Man i'm getting old. I can't stay awake like I used to. I'm in process of doing some manual backtesting of the 08-15 GU using a Minimum Range of 20 and a Maximum Range of 40 and a TP of 10 pips. I'm currently at Oct 24th 2019 and I'm at 30 TP and 6 SL and 1 No Trade ( No Trade is when price opens less than 1 pip from a trigger). I'm going to continue back testing until Jan 1 2019. That will give me 17 months of stats. 20-25 Range....17-3 25.1-30 Range....9-3 30.1-35 Range....2-0-1 35.1-40 Range....2-0 To Be Continued......
so people, as you can see the best stats are the 20-25 range with 17 wins and 3 losses.
What i would now do is trade looking for 10 to 15 pips, or even 10. ......
But to increase my odds/percentages even more, i look for 5 Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay
good post Bo.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,300
  • May 31, 2020 1:11am May 31, 2020 1:11am
Quoting bojack34
Man i'm getting old. I can't stay awake like I used to. I'm in process of doing some manual backtesting of the 08-15 GU using a Minimum Range of 20 and a Maximum Range of 40 and a TP of 10 pips. I'm currently at Oct 24th 2019 and I'm at 30 TP and 6 SL and 1 No Trade ( No Trade is when price opens less than 1 pip from a trigger). I'm going to continue back testing until Jan 1 2019. That will give me 17 months of stats. 20-25 Range....17-3 25.1-30 Range....9-3 30.1-35 Range....2-0-1 35.1-40 Range....2-0 To Be Continued......
I went as far back as my MT4 would allow me. I changed the max bars to 250k and everything. I didn't know what else to do. My MT4 allowed me to go as far back as August 26th 2019. I also decided to remove the BE's from my stats and go ahead and count them as Losses. I did this because I didn't remember to accurately keep track of how many times my TP's would have gotten stopped out. I wanted my stats to be as accurate as possible. I also kept track of the Max Pips traveled from trigger to see what was the most possible pips you could have gotten from each trade. I then divided this total by the number of trades to see what the "average" pips traveled after trigger. I know this is an "average" but it is broken down per category.

8/26/19 - 5/31/20

20 - 25 Range...... 20 TP's 7 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 48.6

25.1 - 30 Range...... 11 TP's 5 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 41.0

30.1 - 35 Range...... 3 TP's 1 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 41.7

35.1 - 40 Range...... 3 TP's 0 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 48.3
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