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Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

  • #2,061
  • May 26, 2020 11:28am May 26, 2020 11:28am
GBPAUD trade from earlier today. The 2nd entry was not pre-planned, it was an after thought when the price moved up the 1st TL and could not breach the HL from the previous upward move in when monitored on M1 chart. Original TP at 1 was missed when the price came close to it, but I didn't account for the spread and it is an average 4-5 pip spread. Missed 2nd exit as I was waiting to see if it will get back to #1 point, however it started forming series of LH's and on the next bottom got out 3/4 of overall size, left the 1/4 running with SL at Daily open. Closed half of 1/4 when price bounced back from nearest low and closed the last half of 1/4 when price bounced back from the absolute low at that point in time. It did continue to fall further after that and started retracing half way through now. I'm happy when I got out.

Both entries combined should had been a total of 70 pip or 35/Avg (25+35 pip) because the TP1 was missed, I ended up with a total 44 or 22/Avg, thanks to partial exits to an extent last partial which was about 25% of 2nd entry raked in almost as much as 100% of the 1st entry.

Laura - Thank you for keep reminding and posting about the partial exits.

Older chart with number markings:
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Final chart after all partials are closed.
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  • #2,062
  • May 26, 2020 11:34am May 26, 2020 11:34am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} And the short above the 200?
Broke consolidation to the LEFT sitting on 9510. plus bounce up into channel (doji) and down. Profit around 9490 at level of similar low on the LEFT.

While I'm here and not trading; see price has dropped below 9488 - the target low of my last trade ( Look LEFT) short has been broken, 200 ma crept closer and -guess what - Price broke 200 ma and returned to bounce off making a short which hit the previous high (blue line).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,063
  • May 26, 2020 12:54pm May 26, 2020 12:54pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Turnip, Where the channel meets the SMA, you will get fresh crosses but this is also where you will get the majority of losing trades. You are right, taken in isolation you had three trades that were either not triggered (I like your filter of candle high/low being taken out) or leading to a loss, before it picked a direction and delivered a profit. Have you tried using Freeman's study for TradingView? I believe he's also added CompRSISelect recently and that would give you an extra tool in addition to simply using channel and SMA. Hopefully...
This be the one Laura ?
Do I have to alter settings or simply leave it alone ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,064
  • May 26, 2020 1:05pm May 26, 2020 1:05pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} This be the one Laura ? Do I have to alter settings or simply leave it alone ? {image}
That looks right, yes

I'm not sure if the author of the study has enabled you to change the CompRSISelect settings but, if so, change them to 15/60/0/0 (1m settings).
  • #2,065
  • May 26, 2020 1:17pm May 26, 2020 1:17pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} That looks right, yes I'm not sure if the author of the study has enabled you to change the CompRSISelect settings but, if so, change them to 15/60/0/0 (1m settings).
Unfortunately no - the settings are standard and available settings are H1,H4,D,W,M.
  • #2,066
  • May 26, 2020 1:50pm May 26, 2020 1:50pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Triple-bullet entry short on Nasdaq. All 3 positions closed in profit.

I used 3 retracement lines to time my first two entries (and then later applied a trendline to time my final entry).
  • #2,067
  • May 26, 2020 2:05pm May 26, 2020 2:05pm
Quoting karun
{quote} Unfortunately no - the settings are standard and available settings are H1,H4,D,W,M.
Oh bother !
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,068
  • May 26, 2020 2:10pm May 26, 2020 2:10pm
Quoting LauraT
{image} Triple-bullet entry short on Nasdaq. All 3 positions closed in profit. I used 3 retracement lines to time my first two entries (and then later applied a trendline to time my final entry).
Fantastic trade Laura! Where would your stop/stops have been placed on this one after first entry etc. and how did you decide to exit at the 9442 level?

Cheers
  • #2,069
  • May 26, 2020 2:13pm May 26, 2020 2:13pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Oh bother !
To be clear, you can enable / disable either of those, it is just that it does not have M15 which is one of the TF for Composite RSI for indices/Oil. I have just set it up with just H1, not exactly the same as what Laura uses, but somewhere in between.
  • #2,070
  • May 26, 2020 2:14pm May 26, 2020 2:14pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Turnip, Where the channel meets the SMA, you will get fresh crosses but this is also where you will get the majority of losing trades. You are right, taken in isolation you had three trades that were either not triggered (I like your filter of candle high/low being taken out) or leading to a loss, before it picked a direction and delivered a profit. Have you tried using Freeman's study for TradingView? I believe he's also added CompRSISelect recently and that would give you an extra tool in addition to simply using channel and SMA. Hopefully...
Oh yes - see Post 2062.
I am a good student Laura
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,071
  • May 26, 2020 2:20pm May 26, 2020 2:20pm
Quoting LauraT
{image} Triple-bullet entry short on Nasdaq. All 3 positions closed in profit. I used 3 retracement lines to time my first two entries (and then later applied a trendline to time my final entry).
Similar entry / exit , 2nd entry was not ideal - only reason was that the expectation that the TL will hold, if the channel had gone above the TL - would have closed the trades. Closed the 2nd entry much earlier.
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  • #2,072
  • May 26, 2020 2:24pm May 26, 2020 2:24pm
Quoting Nik
{quote} Fantastic trade Laura! Where would your stop/stops have been placed on this one after first entry etc. and how did you decide to exit at the 9442 level? Cheers
Hi

My entries were 9455.5, 9471.25 and 9465.5. My disaster stops were up at 9500 initially and were later moved to 9480 and then 9470.

Chart below might help explain why I exited where I did (with hindsight, I was too early but happy enough with profit).

I expected a reaction at previous low (short blue line) and was also seeing price move down in a channel. Price was at the bottom of the channel when I exited.

Hope this helps.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,073
  • May 26, 2020 3:20pm May 26, 2020 3:20pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi My entries were 9455.5, 9471.25 and 9465.5. My disaster stops were up at 9500 initially and were later moved to 9480 and then 9470. Chart below might help explain why I exited where I did (with hindsight, I was too early but happy enough with profit). I expected a reaction at previous low (short blue line) and was also seeing price move down in a channel. Price was at the bottom of the channel when I exited. Hope this helps. {image}
Hi Laura, what was the reason for not exiting the trade at a loss when the channel crossed back over the 200SMA? Had you just decided to give the trade more room for error given the longer term downtrend and composite RSI?
Also, is your compRSI different to RSI2/RSI9 due to using the same CompRSI settings as you've previously stated you're testing for 1m Oil chart?

Many Thanks

James
  • #2,074
  • May 26, 2020 4:56pm May 26, 2020 4:56pm
Gold short trades from earlier today taken in 1min, Gold was already moving below 200sma in 1H-30min HTF indicating Lower levels , first trade was taken after 1min 200sma was broken and price retraced up nearing 200sma, price then advanced lower moving below DOL and below 5/15min 200sma ,and then retraced to a confluence zone of DOL-5/15min 200sma, as soon as it broke the DOL and resistance TL down again, I enetred the second trade, exit was at previous swing low level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,075
  • May 26, 2020 7:46pm May 26, 2020 7:46pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi My entries were 9455.5, 9471.25 and 9465.5. My disaster stops were up at 9500 initially and were later moved to 9480 and then 9470. Chart below might help explain why I exited where I did (with hindsight, I was too early but happy enough with profit). I expected a reaction at previous low (short blue line) and was also seeing price move down in a channel. Price was at the bottom of the channel when I exited. Hope this helps. {image}
thanks for taking the time to reply much appreciated and great trading!
  • #2,076
  • May 26, 2020 8:48pm May 26, 2020 8:48pm
Hello all
My first stab at this with AUDUSD. Target is yesterday's high.

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  • #2,077
  • May 26, 2020 9:32pm May 26, 2020 9:32pm
Exited this position for -16 after channel close below 200 SMA and close below trendline.
  • #2,078
  • May 26, 2020 11:53pm May 26, 2020 11:53pm
Quoting LauraT
{image} Triple-bullet entry short on Nasdaq. All 3 positions closed in profit. I used 3 retracement lines to time my first two entries (and then later applied a trendline to time my final entry).
This is not a criticism but just an observation:
AND: You don't need me to tell you this:
All your short entries worked out but made less profit than long entries would have produced (mean-reversion trading).
This is a flaw in your roadmap that - sooner or later - should be fixed.
Your approach is convincing and - as you can see in your thread - extremely popular, and rightly so.
That is: as long as the trades away from SMA200 are concerned.
The ones back to the SMA200 (mean-reversion trading) are tackled by less convincing methods (ADR, lows, highs etc).
I think simpler and more coherent would be:
long SMA - trade away from MA
opposite direction: follow the movement of a short MA (but you know all this, of course, and probably tried it already)
  • #2,079
  • May 27, 2020 1:17am May 27, 2020 1:17am
Hi all, would like to share 2 successful trades that i had made yesterday.

AUDUSD M15, CompRSI was above 70, relevant MTF all in green, entered the trade at the first retracement to the lower of the 8EMA at 0.6562. Entry not perfect, caught it in the middle of the channel rather than bottom. The trade moved passed the most recent unbroken high at 0.6615 and i considered closing the trade there, however as CompRSI and MTF was still showing positive signs, I decided to manually monitor the trade and I closed the trade at 0.06639 when the price closed right below the lower 8EMA and also I didnt want to leave the trade open overnight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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USDCAD M15, CompRSI was below 30 and relevant MTF all in red, enter trade late under the lower of 8EMA at 1.39648. The trade moved passed the ADR low, hence I manually monitored the trade till the first touch of the higher 8EMA at 1.3862. Similarly, I didnt want to leave the trade open overnight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Question: What do you do if you are not able to manually monitor the trade overnight? would you close of the trade since it has gone pass the profit target? or move the stoploss closer to secure profits and allow the trade to continue to run?
  • #2,080
  • May 27, 2020 3:04am May 27, 2020 3:04am
Quoting bgy2jd
{quote} Hi Laura, what was the reason for not exiting the trade at a loss when the channel crossed back over the 200SMA? Had you just decided to give the trade more room for error given the longer term downtrend and composite RSI? Also, is your compRSI different to RSI2/RSI9 due to using the same CompRSI settings as you've previously stated you're testing for 1m Oil chart? Many Thanks James
Hi

Because it was a multi-bullet entry, I always intended to add a third bullet as long as the move beyond SMA looked like a retracement (hence the retracement line and then the trendline).

Yes, using the 1m settings for CompRSI.
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