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  • #501
  • May 12, 2020 2:52am May 12, 2020 2:52am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Manipulated by who? Who has enough money to manipulate a 5 trillion a day market.
Central Banks...and other large actors acting in confluence (Look up Bank Traders rigging the FIX)
  • #502
  • May 12, 2020 2:53am May 12, 2020 2:53am
Ps. FX is neither random nor efficiently priced..
  • #503
  • May 12, 2020 4:43am May 12, 2020 4:43am
Quoting Thoughts
{quote} Central Banks...and other large actors acting in confluence (Look up Bank Traders rigging the FIX)
When you see it, BET big.
  • #504
  • May 12, 2020 5:57am May 12, 2020 5:57am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote}
This knowledge is Forex 101 basics, although I'd expand the list to include national treasuries, too. Among other things.
  • #505
  • May 12, 2020 6:22am May 12, 2020 6:22am
The big banks make the price of a currency go up when they buy it and down when they sell it. Supply and demand, cause and effect. The bg banks might want currency to go a certain way but that will be part of the competition they run all the time with the other big banks. They don't even notice us.

Private retail traders talking about manipulation of our market (which is not the same as the big banks') sounds like belief in a deliberate conscious and intelligent decision to push price one way or the other for the sake of fleecing all the private retail traders in the world. The brokers we trade through simply aren't big enough even if acting together (and why should they?) to push the retail market.

In fact, private retail traders are generally so poor at this job that brokers don't need to take the risk or make the effort to fleece them - they will wipe themselves out if left to their own devices anyway.
  • #506
  • May 12, 2020 7:10am May 12, 2020 7:10am
Quoting Rennaissance
A trade explorer. 6 months minimum.
Never heard of a trade explorer.

I never post full details of trades I'm in or have been in and never offer up any financial details. But I always post details of strategies I am using or trialling. Anybody experienced looking over those would be able to see very rapidly whether they have profit-making potential.
  • #507
  • May 12, 2020 9:38am May 12, 2020 9:38am
Quoting tomorton
Private retail traders talking about manipulation of our market (which is not the same as the big banks') sounds like belief in a deliberate conscious and intelligent decision to push price one way or the other for the sake of fleecing all the private retail traders in the world.
To be clear, when I talk about manipulation, I am referring to the deliberate, conscious and intelligence decision of a nation's government or central bank to set or direct the value of their currency. As long as banks rationally perform their activities within the range set for them by central banks, all is well. In addition, and within the set range, the banks manipulate (again, a deliberate, conscious and intelligent set of decisions) the market nearly every day, especially in the NY session. But the bank manipulation is very predictable and obvious, if you understand what is going on. Good trading tomorton.
  • #508
  • May 12, 2020 10:31am May 12, 2020 10:31am
Quoting tomorton
The big banks make the price of a currency go up when they buy it and down when they sell it. Supply and demand, cause and effect. The bg banks might want currency to go a certain way but that will be part of the competition they run all the time with the other big banks. They don't even notice us. Private retail traders talking about manipulation of our market (which is not the same as the big banks') sounds like belief in a deliberate conscious and intelligent decision to push price one way or the other for the sake of fleecing all the private...
Excellent posts tom, wow I'm tired of giving you likes.




Attached Image


p.s. hope this image is not copyrighted, it was originally posted by simnz
  • #509
  • May 12, 2020 12:50pm May 12, 2020 12:50pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Excellent posts tom, wow I'm tired of giving you likes. {image} p.s. hope this image is not copyrighted, it was originally posted by simnz
I prefer taking the stance each morning that I don't know why these things move up or down. It keeps my ego and desire to be right in check. cheers!
When you see it, BET big.
  • #510
  • May 13, 2020 12:26am May 13, 2020 12:26am
I would rather focus on trades and how we can tell apart a series of trades from a sequence of coin toss? the probability of getting 111111 in coin toss game is equal to probability of getting any other 7-digit sequence of 0 and 1 if we assume that outcomes are equally likely in every toss and every trial is independent from others. Anybody knows statistical tests for that?
  • #511
  • May 13, 2020 5:24pm May 13, 2020 5:24pm
Quoting bottomhigh
I would rather focus on trades and how we can tell apart a series of trades from a sequence of coin toss? the probability of getting 111111 in coin toss game is equal to probability of getting any other 7-digit sequence of 0 and 1 if we assume that outcomes are equally likely in every toss and every trial is independent from others. Anybody knows statistical tests for that?
What you mention is a binomial probability. So Standard Deviation of binomial probability is:

StDev = Sqrt( P * Q * N)
P = Probability of winning
Q = Probability of losing (1-P)
N = Number of Trials

So for the coin toss example, number of tails (or heads) for 30 trials the formula becomes
StDev = Sqrt(0.5 * 0.5 * 30) = 2.7386

So you would expect according to significant Z-Scores
1 StDev =15+2.7386=17.7386
1.96 Stdevs = 15+(2.7386 * 1.96) = 20.36
2.58 Stdevs = 15 + (2.7386 * 2.58) = 22.06

So in 30 tosses you can expect max of 22.06 heads with %99 certainty

Hope this helps...
  • #512
  • May 13, 2020 7:49pm May 13, 2020 7:49pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Excellent posts tom, wow I'm tired of giving you likes. {image} p.s. hope this image is not copyrighted, it was originally posted by simnz
Nice image with all those issues we need to consider when trading but do all these issues really matter. Perhaps traders believe this game is far more complicated than it really is.
It’s actually not and quite a very easy game to play.

On a chart ahead of price, there is a wall on passive limit orders which gets targeted by aggressive market orders. If the density of aggressive orders is thin, it just bounces and pulls back.
If the aggressive orders are very dense in quantity, it will break through and move higher or lower to the next level.
That’s it, not hard really in the end.
So if we study the order flow on M1, we can determine if the wall of limit orders will hold or collapse by studying the shape of the attack.
If we trade H1/ H4 or higher we really are blind.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #513
  • May 14, 2020 12:07pm May 14, 2020 12:07pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Nice image with all those issues we need to consider when trading but do all these issues really matter. Perhaps traders believe this game is far more complicated than it really is. It’s actually not and quite a very easy game to play. On a chart ahead of price, there is a wall on passive limit orders which gets targeted by aggressive market orders. If the density of aggressive orders is thin, it just bounces and pulls back. If the aggressive orders are very dense in quantity, it will break through and move higher or lower to the next level....

If you mean stop hunting, definitely, I talked about it several years ago on FF and I still assume it's one of the main things that move price. I don't think you are completely crazy.

however, liquidity is not unlimited, too many "predators" out there.... IMO
  • #514
  • May 14, 2020 1:15pm May 14, 2020 1:15pm
Just to make an example, based on personal experience.

slippage occurs when liquidity is low, right ?

well, I got slipped almost every time and I didn't make any money.

so I thought "maybe I'm using too tight stops ?"

MAYBE. I'll let you know!
  • #515
  • May 14, 2020 4:03pm May 14, 2020 4:03pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} If you mean stop hunting, definitely, I talked about it several years ago on FF and I still assume it's one of the main things that move price. I don't think you are completely crazy. however, liquidity is not unlimited, too many "predators" out there.... IMO
Hi HeyYou

That is the issue, the marker makers know the exact size of the liquidity pools when they approach them.

If they want to hold back price on a bullish move to create a fake resistance area, they attack the pool with orders that will be absorbed into the market but not enough to clear out all orders and break through. The rules of Thin Liquidity proves price will collapse and pull back into the gap they have just created every time.
When price collapses back into this gap, retail traders think resistance is real and will add further SELL limit orders into this liquidity pool.
Its a game the market players perform to accumulate large positions before they destroy the pool and those traders.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #516
  • May 14, 2020 5:37pm May 14, 2020 5:37pm
So if we l looking at the M1 chart, we can see the action occurring when price hits these pools of limit orders in the form of four different shape grinds.
Aggressive A & B or Passive A & B.
I normally trade against passive A or B grinds because these moves normally result in low drawdown reversal setups which provides me a nice income and easy pips.
Stress free money every day without fail by trading price mechanics instead of price action.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #517
  • May 15, 2020 6:01am May 15, 2020 6:01am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} honestly, I think stop hunting is done by hedge funds and they expose themselves to risk. not by market makers... that would be illegal to say the least.
Stop hunting doesn't exist, just a made-up thing so retailers can blame their loss on someone else.
  • #518
  • Edited 8:26am May 15, 2020 6:32am | Edited 8:26am
What is perceived as stop hunting is this:

The market will invariably move in the direction that causes the greatest financial damage to the largest number of accounts.
This is the essence of any price move, more losers than winners is what drives a price move.
  • #519
  • May 15, 2020 6:33am May 15, 2020 6:33am
Quoting AmmaBoss
{quote} Stop hunting doesn't exist, just a made-up thing so retailers can blame their loss on someone else.
Without stop loss hunting, we couldn't trade because price would almost never move.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #520
  • May 15, 2020 7:44am May 15, 2020 7:44am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Without stop loss hunting, we couldn't trade because price would almost never move.
Well I guess it depends on the "context"
Stop hunting as in what most retailers believe it represents does not exist.
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