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Forex is random

  • #481
  • May 6, 2020 9:30pm May 6, 2020 9:30pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Yeah, just want to warn people. Especially because when I started no even told me about randomness in the markets. Was just trying to get better, it never crossed my mind that I might be involved in a fruitless pursuit.
Screenshot from your Trade Explorer, that should be enough proof that the market is not random.
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  • #482
  • May 6, 2020 9:34pm May 6, 2020 9:34pm
Quoting Dmh
{quote} Screenshot from your Trade Explorer, that should be enough proof that the market is not random. {image}
Proofs nothing.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #483
  • May 6, 2020 9:47pm May 6, 2020 9:47pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} What is low and what is High?
Start from M1 and study the action around order flow and particularly study what occurs at the turn points. Learn to spot the difference between swings and exhaustion on that time frame first or you have little chance on higher time frames.
You ask what is high or low?
Its the most recent high or low within the current sequence of either a grind or a spike.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #484
  • May 6, 2020 10:05pm May 6, 2020 10:05pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Start from M1 and study the action around order flow and particularly study what occurs at the turn points. Learn to spot the difference between swings and exhaustion on that time frame first or you have little chance on higher time frames. You ask what is high or low? Its the most recent high or low within the current sequence of either a grind or a spike.
Thanks, will study. One thing that is clear to me is that as a new trader I wasn't well oriented. I read a lot of non sense stuff and wasted so much time perfecting trend following approaches. I should have focused more on buying weakness and selling strength.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #485
  • May 6, 2020 10:11pm May 6, 2020 10:11pm
I keep believing that the markets are not random. Because price go up or down based on human behavior and not some closed deterministic system. But until I see consistent profits flowing into my account, I have no reason of believing they aren't. Cheers guys! Keep studying.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #486
  • May 7, 2020 1:23am May 7, 2020 1:23am
Just because something is hard to understand and predict does not mean its random. The markets show elements of both deliberate and random behaviour. Just because some behaviour is deliberate, it does not mean there is a unique intelligence behind the price actions visible and that the subsequent price actions were intended.

Absolutes are unnecessary to make a profit. No TA feature must be 100% reliable to make a profit. Some TA features lead to probable future price action sufficiently frequently that a profit can be made. In addition, the level of profit can be magnified by acknowledgement of some TA features and use of a suitable strategy to take advantage of the possibility of excess profits.

This is TA-based trading.
  • #487
  • May 7, 2020 9:25am May 7, 2020 9:25am
Quoting tomorton
Just because something is hard to understand and predict does not mean its random. The markets show elements of both deliberate and random behaviour. Just because some behaviour is deliberate, it does not mean there is a unique intelligence behind the price actions visible and that the subsequent price actions were intended. Absolutes are unnecessary to make a profit. No TA feature must be 100% reliable to make a profit. Some TA features lead to probable future price action sufficiently frequently that a profit can be made. In addition, the level...
Any proof? Or atleast trade explorer. I just realize the vast majority of traders refuse to accept their fate even when history should prove them otherwise. It's all cause of hope, or I should say false hope which will eventually be met with disappointment.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #488
  • May 7, 2020 10:12am May 7, 2020 10:12am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Any proof? Or atleast trade explorer. I just realize the vast majority of traders refuse to accept their fate even when history should prove them otherwise. It's all cause of hope, or I should say false hope which will eventually be met with disappointment.

What sort of proof would be accepted?
  • #489
  • May 7, 2020 10:27am May 7, 2020 10:27am
A trade explorer. 6 months minimum.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #490
  • May 7, 2020 11:59am May 7, 2020 11:59am
It depends on the situation of the market I think.
  • #491
  • May 7, 2020 8:25pm May 7, 2020 8:25pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} What is low and what is High?
There is no high or low, if anything you should not buy a falling market nor sell a rising one. Contrarian trading is not recomended unless you have insider info that you're sure will flip the market.
i lose money for a living
  • #492
  • May 7, 2020 9:47pm May 7, 2020 9:47pm
Quoting tylerbose
{quote} There is no high or low, if anything you should not buy a falling market nor sell a rising one. Contrarian trading is not recomended unless you have insider info that you're sure will flip the market.
There is a high and low on M1, you just need to spare a couple of years there learning to understand how it works.
Price is fixed and Is only allowed to move a certain distance on each leg. Once you know it’s spec’s, trading is incredibly easy.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #493
  • May 7, 2020 11:28pm May 7, 2020 11:28pm
Quoting tylerbose
{quote} There is no high or low, if anything you should not buy a falling market nor sell a rising one. Contrarian trading is not recomended unless you have insider info that you're sure will flip the market.
You are right. Agree, even if you have info, wait for price before entering.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #494
  • May 9, 2020 2:40pm May 9, 2020 2:40pm
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/one...owed-9-million

Mingary, is this you?
  • #495
  • May 11, 2020 3:31am May 11, 2020 3:31am
Hi.
It seems like this thread is "Oh my God this is a conspiracy theory. Everything is against us. The market is the same."
Guys it can't be. I really agree with those who say a lot influences on the formation of the market.
  • #496
  • May 11, 2020 11:31am May 11, 2020 11:31am
Quoting Errrrr
Hi. It seems like this thread is "Oh my God this is a conspiracy theory. Everything is against us. The market is the same." Guys it can't be. I really agree with those who say a lot influences on the formation of the market.
We are not saying there is any conspiracy theory, quite the opposite. We are simply suggesting that markets are efficiently priced. Not by men behind the scene, but by the collective sum of investors.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #497
  • May 11, 2020 12:10pm May 11, 2020 12:10pm
During the past 18 months or so I have been (and still) studying the works of Richard D Wyckoff, Steve Mauro (BTMM), George_AUS, Michael Huddleston (ICT), Tom Williams (VSA) and Anna Coulling (VPA) and I came to a conclusion that the Forex market cannot be random.

I have done some back-testing and applied the knowledge that I have been acquiring (on a live account) and the way the algos, the market maker or whoever is controlling or moving the price is too good to the pipette. I do not see any randomness about it. The price moves to a particular direction for a reason and it does not follow a heads or tails game.
  • #498
  • May 11, 2020 1:06pm May 11, 2020 1:06pm
Quoting GEfx
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/one...owed-9-million Mingary, is this you?
Just another foolish attempt at "price discovery"
  • #499
  • May 11, 2020 1:36pm May 11, 2020 1:36pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} We are not saying there is any conspiracy theory, quite the opposite. We are simply suggesting that markets are efficiently priced. Not by men behind the scene, but by the collective sum of investors.
I agree with the first statement: there is no conspiracy underway here. I disagree with the statement, "Not by men behind the scene". The Forex is absolutely manipulated, although not behind the scene, rather, right in front of you.
  • #500
  • May 11, 2020 11:53pm May 11, 2020 11:53pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I agree with the first statement: there is no conspiracy underway here. I disagree with the statement, "Not by men behind the scene". The Forex is absolutely manipulated, although not behind the scene, rather, right in front of you.
Manipulated by who? Who has enough money to manipulate a 5 trillion a day market.
When you see it, BET big.
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