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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #82,601
  • May 6, 2020 9:02am May 6, 2020 9:02am
Quoting JayBag
{quote} Did you say free fall? Lol Please don't crack me up so early
Jay... out of curiosity. How does laughing at someone's views LIFT them... as you rise?
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,602
  • May 6, 2020 9:02am May 6, 2020 9:02am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Looking at the major indices, we seem to be in opposition to them. The Dow, and Nasdaq both had good weeks. Once that is over we will rise. Sometimes UJ and the indices dance together. Sometimes they are in opposition. This is leaning towards a dive in the indices soon which makes sense as I think it is overbought. I have yet to hear one economist who has a confirmed reason why we are on a tear higher in the midst of an epidemic lockdown. For now I see us visiting 105.1 area. It is the 38 percent fib off the recent highs and lows. If you look at...
Well said. I totally agree. In Terms of wish trading we all have been there. That usdjpy is not showing any appetite to go long. This is tooooo heavy. Unless it will change mind soon
  • #82,603
  • May 6, 2020 9:17am May 6, 2020 9:17am
Small lots to the downside until I see the majors turn over.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,604
  • May 6, 2020 9:22am May 6, 2020 9:22am
Luke, my puffer fish, expects the stock indices to continue to rise in a choppy manner, following the rising channel they have formed over the last month or so. And rising channels tend to end in a blow-off top above the channel.

As for U/JPY, Luke is not sure. Which is why he's trading indices for now.

This is me, trying to restrain him from buying up all the indices! But it's too late! He's already long FTSE
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  • #82,605
  • May 6, 2020 9:29am May 6, 2020 9:29am
If the U/JPY is following a channel just like the indices have been doing, then potentially it's on its way to 104. And descending channels tend to eventually end in spikes below their floor so, even lower than 104 later

But a channel on the USD/JPY is not yet as well-defined as in the stock indices, so this pair might do smth else. It tends to have a mind of its own even in normal periods!
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  • #82,606
  • May 6, 2020 9:42am May 6, 2020 9:42am
the channels also suggest today may be your last chance to buy the Dow targeting 3000 pips higher, if you trade that market. But being the Dow, it can still dip another 350 pips and still respect the rising channel. Who wants to buy with 350 pips stop loss?
  • #82,607
  • May 6, 2020 9:53am May 6, 2020 9:53am
USD?JPY has gone mad. No sign of recovery, although the dollar is very strong today. That could be a sign for a long term down trend, unless we start breaking levels on the upside and the big boys change their minds.
  • #82,608
  • May 6, 2020 10:21am May 6, 2020 10:21am
On the larger time frames I dont see a bullish reversal sign. On the hourly, the last 3 hourly bars point at potential exhaustion of this bearish move for now. It might just consolidate and chop-chop a bit
  • #82,609
  • May 6, 2020 1:06pm May 6, 2020 1:06pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Looking at the major indices, we seem to be in opposition to them. The Dow, and Nasdaq both had good weeks. Once that is over we will rise. Sometimes UJ and the indices dance together. Sometimes they are in opposition. This is leaning towards a dive in the indices soon which makes sense as I think it is overbought. I have yet to hear one economist who has a confirmed reason why we are on a tear higher in the midst of an epidemic lockdown. For now I see us visiting 105.1 area. It is the 38 percent fib off the recent highs and lows. If you look at...

The Dow has opened up in the positive and faded it's way down to JUST above the open the past few days. Any tennis players on here? Volley right.. Volley right.. Volley right.. SLAM left.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,610
  • May 6, 2020 1:21pm May 6, 2020 1:21pm
The pair has managed to sell every pull back. In the minute chart for todays date it has managed to sell at the 50day MA the 200MA and at double tops with no sign reversal. Therefore, my trade plan is to buy every time it breaks.

Buy1 @ 106.21
Buy2 @ 106.45
Buy 3 @ 106.96
Buy 4 @ 107.70

If the downtrend continues i am looking to buy around 104.50-105.00 area.

hopefully that would work
  • #82,611
  • May 6, 2020 3:24pm May 6, 2020 3:24pm
the USD/JPY has stopped falling over the last 4 hours, but it's not like it's started rising either.

On the other hand, the Dow is at a really attractive level after today's drop IMO, so I bought right at the close. Still no set up for me to long the USD/JPY
  • #82,612
  • Edited 3:51am May 7, 2020 2:29am | Edited 3:51am
Long usdjpy 106,33

Will add more as we go down

Reasons below

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Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #82,613
  • May 7, 2020 2:32am May 7, 2020 2:32am
Quoting kuroro001
Long usdjpy 106,33 Will add more as we go down Reasons below 3627783 {image} {image}
I knew you'd join me on the bull side..

Welcome

SS
  • #82,614
  • May 7, 2020 2:51am May 7, 2020 2:51am
Quoting dimadono
USD?JPY has gone mad. No sign of recovery, although the dollar is very strong today. That could be a sign for a long term down trend, unless we start breaking levels on the upside and the big boys change their minds.
Don't be the bag holder. Assets managers are looking for someone to hold their JPY longs

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #82,615
  • May 7, 2020 3:17am May 7, 2020 3:17am
Long on USD JPY? What is the target?
  • #82,616
  • May 7, 2020 4:14am May 7, 2020 4:14am
Quoting JayBag
{quote} Any H1 close above 106.3845 kicks off the journey to 500pips bull move .... Don't Miss it because you stuck within the 'Assumption' circle SS
there we have it... The bulls are activated.

Sellers? You may wanna run for cover at this point...

SS
  • #82,617
  • May 7, 2020 5:22am May 7, 2020 5:22am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Don't be the bag holder. Assets managers are looking for someone to hold their JPY longs {image}
Hi Kuroro. I would like to ask if where can I find that chart or what do we called it ?? It seems very helpful .




____________
Still Learning
  • #82,618
  • May 7, 2020 5:49am May 7, 2020 5:49am
Quoting 60629435
{quote} Hi Kuroro. I would like to ask if where can I find that chart or what do we called it ?? It seems very helpful . ____________ Still Learning
Hello,

I made it through excel, but you can find the datas here : cftc.gov

Its called the COT report (commitment of traders report)

If you are too lazy to check the datas, here are a few sites
cotunchained.com
barcharts.com
freecotdata.com
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #82,619
  • May 7, 2020 5:50am May 7, 2020 5:50am
So this pair finally gave a bullish set up on the 1-hour charts, right at the end of yesterday. Could have bought as price broke abive the high of the highlighted hourly candle, at 106.10- 106.11 with stop loss just below the low of that candle, say 105.98 or 12-13 pips, targeting 2X or 3X that. The price has now risen to meet that 3X target. I didnt take the trade as ultimately I saw much better opportunities elsewhere, as per my journal.

USD.JPY still hasn't given me a bullish setup on higher timeframe charts, like the daily or even the 4Hour. Until that happens, I dont see me taking a trade on this pair.
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  • #82,620
  • May 7, 2020 5:56am May 7, 2020 5:56am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Don't be the bag holder. Assets managers are looking for someone to hold their JPY longs {image}
I hope they are asset managers and not just ASS managers xD
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