every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
- #1,182
- May 4, 2020 9:07am May 4, 2020 9:07am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 10,704 Posts
Laura -in view of the higher time frames ( 5 -15-30mins) being bearish/below 200ma line, I have behaved myself and not shouted "long at at 2:48pm when price crossed channel -so would we look for a short now price approaches 200 ? {image}
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
- #1,183
- May 4, 2020 9:24am May 4, 2020 9:24am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 10,704 Posts
{quote} I got the answer from Mrs market
Laura -the big thrust long pulled back to where I have the little arrow. Is that a suitable point to get Long ( price pulled back to lower part of band -green candle) ?
Edit : 15 min shows big gap down in the recent past ( 23600) and recent price has bounced off 23500 -should one factor that in ?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
- #1,184
- May 4, 2020 9:47am May 4, 2020 9:47am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Daylight Roadmapper | 1,371 Posts
- #1,185
- May 4, 2020 10:17am May 4, 2020 10:17am
Hey guys,
I finished my trade with a preemptive Stop loss as shown in the chart below.
I originally wanted to wait till the price hit ADR low, but was not sure whether that was the right take profit,
Any insights on the below trade?
Was this a good trade?
Should I have waited?
Could I have looked at something else for a better tp?
Thanks
I finished my trade with a preemptive Stop loss as shown in the chart below.
I originally wanted to wait till the price hit ADR low, but was not sure whether that was the right take profit,
Any insights on the below trade?
Was this a good trade?
Should I have waited?
Could I have looked at something else for a better tp?
Thanks
- #1,186
- May 4, 2020 10:29am May 4, 2020 10:29am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Daylight Roadmapper | 1,371 Posts
Hey guys, I finished my trade with a preemptive Stop loss as shown in the chart below. I originally wanted to wait till the price hit ADR low, but was not sure whether that was the right take profit, {image} Any insights on the below trade? Was this a good trade? Should I have waited? Could I have looked at something else for a better tp? Thanks
Why was your stop there? Were you trailing the position?
If your target was ADR Low, why didn't you allow it to travel there?
You might have a very good reason for getting out early but consider whether you are giving your trades enough breathing room. I didn't see any reason to exit when you did.
- #1,188
- May 4, 2020 11:04am May 4, 2020 11:04am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Daylight Roadmapper | 1,371 Posts
LauraT I have to add my cu-do's to your thread along with all the others excellent work. I also love the way you respond to the set ups the others show you. Very respectful and informative. Like others here I have been lurking at FF for a while and have not found a current thread worth following till now. I hope to learn this system as well as the others seem to have. I do have a question in regards to which session most people are using. It looks to me like most of the examples are the london session as I don't seem to see them developing in the...
I'm sure others based in North America will chime in with their experiences but, personally, I do trade the US session (some days at least) and tend to switch to Oil and US Indices. I find that a lot of the currency moves are played out by the time London closes.
- #1,190
- Edited 12:12pm May 4, 2020 11:54am | Edited 12:12pm
- Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Trader | 5,146 Posts
- #1,192
- May 4, 2020 12:14pm May 4, 2020 12:14pm
{quote} Hi
Yes, I was trailing the trade, Thanks for the insight I will let the trade breath next time.
And you were correct it did eventually go and hit the ADR low,
Thanks for sharing the system, my first trade got me 14 pips profit.
I am looking forward to learning a lot more here.
Also, if someone could help with the template issue, it will be great
Thanks.
- #1,193
- May 4, 2020 12:19pm May 4, 2020 12:19pm
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Daylight Roadmapper | 1,371 Posts
- #1,196
- Edited 1:06pm May 4, 2020 12:52pm | Edited 1:06pm
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,113 Posts
Just wanted to air some thoughts — LauraT, or anybody else, please tell me whether I'm on the right track or not. Many thanks.
Buying at candle (1) in the screenshot (when price reaches the lower channel boundary) meets the rules, but I would describe it as a more brave and aggressive entry than waiting to buy at (2), after price has closed above the channel (this entry also has yesterday's high as possible turncoat support). More aggressive gets us in on the right side of the channel, and at a better price, but runs the risk (as in this case) that price will simply follow the lower channel boundary downward, putting the trade into significant drawdown. The more conservative entry at (2) happens to work out better in this instance, but in theory we're paying a premium, by buying above the channel. As always, there's no free lunch, there are pros and cons to both approaches. As with every strategy, it comes down to whether we decide to wait for some kind of confirmation, or simply take the plunge ("catching the falling knife". There may be other reasons that make an aggressive entry safer, but they're not part of Laura's strategy, hence I won't mention them). Much of this I expect is nuanced and contextual and comes with experience. Perhaps after a long move, from (3) to (1), some kind of correction (caused in part by traders taking their profits) might be anticipated, suggesting caution. Laura, I see your comment about possibly waiting for confirmation in some situations (post 1184).
The aggressive entry at (3) works well. The overall move is less mature, we are getting in earlier. In this case we wouldn't take the conservative entry at (4) (i.e. waiting for price to close outside the channel) because the candle is too big. The aggressive trader might enter at (3) and take some partial profit and/or move SL to BE at (4).
I see three possible reasons for taking the first setup after the EMA(8) channel crosses the SMA(200):
By getting in earlier, it's (usually) going to be a better price.
We are entering earlier into the possible move. The later we leave it, the greater the risk of reversal.
There is less risk, because by being nearer to the SMA(200) our loss (assuming we exit when the EMA(8) channel crosses the SMA(200)), will be smaller. Bigger potential profit + smaller potential loss both = better RR.
I wonder about the possibility of using the idea of price closing below the channel as some kind of final profit exit. For example, if we enter at (3) and take partial profit at (4) (and possibly again after some other large candles that close well above the channel), but delay taking final profit until price closes below the channel at (5), which in this case happens to capture the entire move.
I also wonder if a sharp momentum-based breakout (like candle (6)), especially after the channel has been falling for a while, is a good indication that momentum is shifting, and hence a good entry (although buying above the channel is breaking the basic rules). Whereas (if scalping) I would see something like (7) as more of a possible profit taking candle, as price has been outside the channel for longer. All of this is assuming that we weren’t so near to the end of the week.
Offsetting much of this is that the RSI composite will have a lower value at (6), it's highest value at (5), and will fall away again toward (2). This suggests that an extremely high RSI doesn't necessarily mean a better buying opportunity (vice versa for selling).
Of course things don't always play out as they did in the screenshot. Anyway, I'd be interested in any feedback. I've posted this publicly in that it might include some questions that other members are also thinking about asking. Thanks in advance.
Buying at candle (1) in the screenshot (when price reaches the lower channel boundary) meets the rules, but I would describe it as a more brave and aggressive entry than waiting to buy at (2), after price has closed above the channel (this entry also has yesterday's high as possible turncoat support). More aggressive gets us in on the right side of the channel, and at a better price, but runs the risk (as in this case) that price will simply follow the lower channel boundary downward, putting the trade into significant drawdown. The more conservative entry at (2) happens to work out better in this instance, but in theory we're paying a premium, by buying above the channel. As always, there's no free lunch, there are pros and cons to both approaches. As with every strategy, it comes down to whether we decide to wait for some kind of confirmation, or simply take the plunge ("catching the falling knife". There may be other reasons that make an aggressive entry safer, but they're not part of Laura's strategy, hence I won't mention them). Much of this I expect is nuanced and contextual and comes with experience. Perhaps after a long move, from (3) to (1), some kind of correction (caused in part by traders taking their profits) might be anticipated, suggesting caution. Laura, I see your comment about possibly waiting for confirmation in some situations (post 1184).
The aggressive entry at (3) works well. The overall move is less mature, we are getting in earlier. In this case we wouldn't take the conservative entry at (4) (i.e. waiting for price to close outside the channel) because the candle is too big. The aggressive trader might enter at (3) and take some partial profit and/or move SL to BE at (4).
I see three possible reasons for taking the first setup after the EMA(8) channel crosses the SMA(200):
By getting in earlier, it's (usually) going to be a better price.
We are entering earlier into the possible move. The later we leave it, the greater the risk of reversal.
There is less risk, because by being nearer to the SMA(200) our loss (assuming we exit when the EMA(8) channel crosses the SMA(200)), will be smaller. Bigger potential profit + smaller potential loss both = better RR.
I wonder about the possibility of using the idea of price closing below the channel as some kind of final profit exit. For example, if we enter at (3) and take partial profit at (4) (and possibly again after some other large candles that close well above the channel), but delay taking final profit until price closes below the channel at (5), which in this case happens to capture the entire move.
I also wonder if a sharp momentum-based breakout (like candle (6)), especially after the channel has been falling for a while, is a good indication that momentum is shifting, and hence a good entry (although buying above the channel is breaking the basic rules). Whereas (if scalping) I would see something like (7) as more of a possible profit taking candle, as price has been outside the channel for longer. All of this is assuming that we weren’t so near to the end of the week.
Offsetting much of this is that the RSI composite will have a lower value at (6), it's highest value at (5), and will fall away again toward (2). This suggests that an extremely high RSI doesn't necessarily mean a better buying opportunity (vice versa for selling).
Of course things don't always play out as they did in the screenshot. Anyway, I'd be interested in any feedback. I've posted this publicly in that it might include some questions that other members are also thinking about asking. Thanks in advance.
