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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #6,241
  • Apr 26, 2020 9:24pm Apr 26, 2020 9:24pm
Quoting Andy1501
{quote} Good afternoon! I have been following this thread for a while and I think there is a lot of valuable information for traders of all skill levels . However , claims of such enormous profits are usually seen in the marketing of fake EAs , online courses etc. , but it is clear that this is not your intention and I truly believe you just want to share your knowledge which I respect. The reason I'm writing this is because I'm at an earlier stage of my journey and I'm looking for some clarification. If you continue with these profits ,by next...
Well Andy there is probably a very thick book to be written on answering this. Let's not get ahead of ourselves using telephone numbers as examples.

There are just 137 subscribers to this thread, let's guess that a whopping 50% comprehend and practice it. So we are looking at a possible 60/70 people so I think making the strategy redundant is highly unlikely amidst the millions who trade alternative methods. I never set out to make my fortune but rather a steady income I can live on and this to will differ from person to person, this thread is simply an explanation of what I do to achieve this and have done for a long time.

What prompts me to write this stuff is that I see people making the same mistakes over and over and losing their hard eared money, as you pointed out there are a lot of people out there selling notions and potions and probably make a better living from that than they do trading. Then there are the so called professional traders in institutions trading billions, my question would be 'if they are so good then why do they work for somebody else?'.

I don't understand what you mean by how do I achieve such profits, haven't I gone to a great deal of trouble explain this aspect.

The methods of chart plotting you mentioned, harmonics etc are price based whereas I trade the average swings and the various structures that happen within these swings to make the swings happen at a time when it is most likely to make it efficient in terms of time.

I could write about this stuff all day but it has nothing to do with the actual practice of trading so I will leave the philosophy and psychology for others more expert in the field.

I am not here to change your opinion, if it works for you then stick to it. If it doesn't then maybe you can take something from this thread and profit from it. I am always happy to discuss stuff because I to learn from discussion.

Thanks for the query Andy
  • #6,242
  • Apr 26, 2020 10:02pm Apr 26, 2020 10:02pm
Quoting Nala66
Ok I just past the 5k mark $5096 What I should do now is withdraw 4k and use the 1k as my target. However I am not going to do that since I can't spend it anyway so I will just pretend I have done that. So at 1k I am at 509.6% and 1K is my daily target
Turning $100 into $5096 represents a 4,996% return which is absolutely phenomenal.For the life of me I can't understand why you don't put 5k into your account and trade yourself to financial freedom,you will never have to work again and you certainly won't have to maintain this thread on the FF.
  • #6,243
  • Apr 27, 2020 12:17am Apr 27, 2020 12:17am
I can't speak for Alan or anybody else, but my best month was 700% green. There I came to an account size which apparantly fits to who I am. Letting it grow makes me nervous, which causes problems. So I stick to the account size that fits my brain and heart, withdraw the profits and go on.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #6,244
  • Apr 27, 2020 12:41am Apr 27, 2020 12:41am
Quoting edge540
{quote} Turning $100 into $5096 represents a 4,996% return which is absolutely phenomenal.For the life of me I can't understand why you don't put 5k into your account and trade yourself to financial freedom,you will never have to work again and you certainly won't have to maintain this thread on the FF.
That is funny edge540 I think I am well past my use by date for working and I am financially free.

I am an old man now, been trading for 20 years and retired for 10.

As for this thread....gee can't a bloke have a hobby?
  • #6,245
  • Apr 27, 2020 12:55am Apr 27, 2020 12:55am
Take note of what Jazz just said... PAY YOURSELF

I read a lot of threads and most miss out this important aspect.

We all reach our comfort levels and besides when you put big bucks on you have to wait until the order is filled and this causes slippage, a few pips or so can be very costly and sends your heart into overdrive.
  • #6,246
  • Apr 27, 2020 1:45am Apr 27, 2020 1:45am
Shorted the 5 min div but no ZOO on the hour... so just a scalp

Slow as a wet week so far
  • #6,247
  • Apr 27, 2020 1:49am Apr 27, 2020 1:49am
Looks like the hour is making for the 2465
  • #6,248
  • Apr 27, 2020 2:26am Apr 27, 2020 2:26am
Quoting Nala66
Looks like the hour is making for the 2465
Alan would you be taking the 4hr ABCD 50% it bounced off in to consideration at this point
  • #6,249
  • Apr 27, 2020 5:24am Apr 27, 2020 5:24am
not much movement in the cable so far...

very slow
  • #6,250
  • Apr 27, 2020 5:32am Apr 27, 2020 5:32am
No
Nada
  • #6,251
  • Apr 27, 2020 9:29am Apr 27, 2020 9:29am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Well Andy there is probably a very thick book to be written on answering this. Let's not get ahead of ourselves using telephone numbers as examples. There are just 137 subscribers to this thread, let's guess that a whopping 50% comprehend and practice it. So we are looking at a possible 60/70 people so I think making the strategy redundant is highly unlikely amidst the millions who trade alternative methods. I never set out to make my fortune but rather a steady income I can live on and this to will differ from person to person, this thread...

Thank you for the detailed reply! I guess I was just curious what limitations exist when a trader makes such impressive profits , which might limit the long term reliability of trading the forex market, but I think I will find that out as time passes.

This method is actually the one I trade in a more conservative way, using the principles outlined here , for which I thank you. What I haven't clearly understood yet , however , is your exact criteria for identifying the bull/bear support on the 5 minute chart. Perhaps you could briefly describe it once more if you have the time ?
  • #6,252
  • Apr 27, 2020 10:43pm Apr 27, 2020 10:43pm
[quote} Thank you for the detailed reply! I guess I was just curious what limitations exist when a trader makes such impressive profits , which might limit the long term reliability of trading the forex market, but I think I will find that out as time passes. This method is actually the one I trade in a more conservative way, using the principles outlined here , for which I thank you. What I haven't clearly understood yet , however , is your exact criteria for identifying the bull/bear support on the 5 minute chart. Perhaps you could briefly describe...[/quote]

No worries. I cannot answer what would happen when trading with telephone numbers because I generally withdraw lump sums on a monthly basis to pay myself. However since we are in lockdown (here in Yatala) I can't spend it so I will let it run longer and let you know what happens say in a months time.

As for the bull and bear supports... Here on the AJ we have both examples so I'll use this chart.

First we put the word FINDS in front of the word support. So when the price crosses the EMA we need to see the bull or bears FIND support.

I take this to be the first pull back after crossing where the opposition fails to get back across the EMA. If they do get back across then they have failed to FIND support for their continued move. The support point is the actual top or bottom of the bar (wick)

See in the chart below where they both FIND support to continue the move and how the opposition cannot close across this support.

Hope this is clear...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 51 KB

Now look at the previous bear support it only held for a short time so the price get's back across the EMA and the process is reset.

Remember we are looking at that EMA making a LL and prices dragging it there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,253
  • Edited Apr 28, 2020 12:05am Apr 27, 2020 11:53pm | Edited Apr 28, 2020 12:05am
Hi Alan,
Please forgive such a basic question, but today, are we looking for signals that lead price to head towards the ema turns at either 1.2487 or 1.2341? I don't see a bias yet, although, it has been going up [on H1] and is now in a holding pattern so if forced to choose I would say it's time for a retrace down, but.......

Ooops, forgot a chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,254
  • Apr 28, 2020 3:19am Apr 28, 2020 3:19am
Quoting Trade.Time
Hi Alan, Please forgive such a basic question, but today, are we looking for signals that lead price to head towards the ema turns at either 1.2487 or 1.2341? I don't see a bias yet, although, it has been going up [on H1] and is now in a holding pattern so if forced to choose I would say it's time for a retrace down, but....... Ooops, forgot a chart {image}
Don't try to out guess the chart just stick with the signals
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 125 KB


See the one hour printed ABCD and we had the div on the five min. Price has shot to the R! daily pivot taking out all the ABCD's on the way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 73 KB
  • #6,255
  • Apr 28, 2020 3:21am Apr 28, 2020 3:21am
The 1 hour is now in a bear div suggesting back to the EMA so we close the longs. I am waiting to see this div fail or not.
  • #6,256
  • Apr 28, 2020 7:35am Apr 28, 2020 7:35am
Quoting Nala66
[quote} Thank you for the detailed reply! I guess I was just curious what limitations exist when a trader makes such impressive profits , which might limit the long term reliability of trading the forex market, but I think I will find that out as time passes. This method is actually the one I trade in a more conservative way, using the principles outlined here , for which I thank you. What I haven't clearly understood yet , however , is your exact criteria for identifying the bull/bear support on the 5 minute chart. Perhaps you could briefly describe...
No worries. I cannot answer what would happen when trading with telephone numbers because I generally withdraw lump sums on a monthly basis to pay myself. However since we are in lockdown (here in Yatala) I can't spend it so I will let it run longer and let you know what happens say in a months time. As for the bull and bear supports... Here on the AJ we have both examples so I'll use this chart. First we put the word FINDS in front of the word support. So when the price crosses the EMA we need to see the bull or bears FIND support. I take this to be the first pull back after crossing where the opposition fails to get back across the EMA. If they do get back across then they have failed to FIND support for their continued move. The support point is the actual top or bottom of the bar (wick) See in the chart below where they both FIND support to continue the move and how the opposition cannot close across this support. Hope this is clear... {image} Now look at the previous bear support it only held for a short time so the price get's back across the EMA and the process is reset. Remember we are looking at that EMA making a LL and prices dragging it there. {image}[/quote]


So you just focus on the first pullback , without considering factors like distance from ema or the actual structure of the bar ( length of wick etc. ) . I understand now. Do you think it would be practical to take just one entry once support is found for a less aggressive approach ( provided the other criteria is met on the 1 hour) ?

Also, do you always consider a 1 hour pullback to the ema a potential entry provided no divergence occurs?

Thank you
  • #6,257
  • Apr 28, 2020 8:56pm Apr 28, 2020 8:56pm
[/quote] So you just focus on the first pullback , without considering factors like distance from ema or the actual structure of the bar ( length of wick etc. ) . I understand now. Do you think it would be practical to take just one entry once support is found for a less aggressive approach ( provided the other criteria is met on the 1 hour) ? Also, do you always consider a 1 hour pullback to the ema a potential entry provided no divergence occurs? Thank you[/quote]

I would never consider just one entry because this works out to win one lose one and so on making little profit..

Consider the charts below..
The one hour is in div so we look to the 5 min for a long entry.
Now to do as you say wait for the bulls to FIND support it works like illustrated.
At this stage on the 1 hour I am expecting the EMA to make the HH (A) and thus price to reach the next level (B)
Note I could have taken another trade on the 5min at the dashed line but this would mean the stop would be below two entries, I don't like that. Better to move the stops instead and lock in more profit.
Note how the 5 min is in a bear div but the 1 hour has not made B yet so we may or may not get stopped out for a tidy profit.
If we don't get stopped out we move the stops again and take another trade at the top. Just keep going until stopped out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,258
  • Apr 28, 2020 9:10pm Apr 28, 2020 9:10pm
I made a mistake in the drawing... The blue dashed line should be just a red line stop as below. It was a stop move rather than another entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 74 KB


Also we cannot take another trade at the top because the stop would be in the same place it is now. This would mean just giving money back.
  • #6,259
  • Apr 29, 2020 6:51am Apr 29, 2020 6:51am
Money for old rope today. Click and collect
  • #6,260
  • Apr 29, 2020 9:20pm Apr 29, 2020 9:20pm
Following on from yesterdays chat about supports...

Look at this 5 min chart and notice how it takes a bull support to take out a bear support and vice versa.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 74 KB
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