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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #6,221
  • Apr 23, 2020 7:21am Apr 23, 2020 7:21am
Thank you Alan for your explanation and details about mm
  • #6,222
  • Apr 23, 2020 6:32pm Apr 23, 2020 6:32pm
Quoting Nala66
Just a little bit of scary information... Since the beginning of FEB I have made 4842% I don't really like to post these things but here I make the exception to show how powerful this is.
By my calculations you have taken a $1,000 account to $4,864,000 or maybe you are trading a 10k account and it's now sitting at $48,640,000.Absolutely incredible stuff,why do you waste your time on this thread?
  • #6,223
  • Apr 23, 2020 9:08pm Apr 23, 2020 9:08pm
Quoting edge540
{quote} By my calculations you have taken a $1,000 account to $4,864,000 or maybe you are trading a 10k account and it's now sitting at $48,640,000.Absolutely incredible stuff,why do you waste your time on this thread?
Not really. My buddy Kiwi Kev gave me a scare at the beginning of the year so I withdrew the bulk of my account leaving just $100 in it.

It is this $100 account that is now worth $4952. My mistake on the % but still pretty good hey!

Had I not done that then this would be far higher than just adding a zero.

Doesn't matter though because I can't spend it... The pubs are shut, can't go fishing. Petrol is very cheap but can't drive anywhere.

Been watching heaps of movies and working in the garden,
  • #6,224
  • Apr 23, 2020 10:01pm Apr 23, 2020 10:01pm
Ok I just past the 5k mark $5096

What I should do now is withdraw 4k and use the 1k as my target. However I am not going to do that since I can't spend it anyway so I will just pretend I have done that.

So at 1k I am at 509.6% and 1K is my daily target
  • #6,225
  • Apr 23, 2020 11:43pm Apr 23, 2020 11:43pm
I just finished reading all the threads here......However Alan, why you start with $100 only and not $1000 that you used to advocate to be efficiency in term of time and your pushing type of money management?
  • #6,226
  • Apr 24, 2020 12:33am Apr 24, 2020 12:33am
Quoting limth
I just finished reading all the threads here......However Alan, why you start with $100 only and not $1000 that you used to advocate to be efficiency in term of time and your pushing type of money management?
I just told you that I withdrew my money in January because there was a little problem between the broker and ASIC so I was just playing safe and left $100
  • #6,227
  • Apr 24, 2020 1:09am Apr 24, 2020 1:09am
Quoting Nala66
Ok I just past the 5k mark $5096 What I should do now is withdraw 4k and use the 1k as my target. However I am not going to do that since I can't spend it anyway so I will just pretend I have done that. So at 1k I am at 509.6% and 1K is my daily target
Well done Nala66, but do you really mean 1K in a day?
  • #6,228
  • Edited 2:15am Apr 24, 2020 1:29am | Edited 2:15am
Alan

Re post 6212

Very useful to see what you did yesterday compared to what i did and where i pulled the trigger

Many thanks
  • #6,229
  • Apr 24, 2020 8:17pm Apr 24, 2020 8:17pm
Quoting kofix11
{quote} Well done Nala66, but do you really mean 1K in a day?
Yes that is my new target.

Don't misunderstand this I cannot and do not achieve this all the time, it is a target and I sometimes miss.

Usually I will keep trading until I get it. This may mean several trades have to be taken to make up the balances.
  • #6,230
  • Apr 24, 2020 9:22pm Apr 24, 2020 9:22pm
This was difficult to trade yesterday (Fri 24th)
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  • #6,231
  • Apr 24, 2020 9:50pm Apr 24, 2020 9:50pm
Quoting Nala66
This was difficult to trade yesterday (Fri 24th) {image}
Hello,
Just wondering but have I drawn this abcd correctly because you did not mention it in your 1h?

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  • #6,232
  • Apr 24, 2020 10:30pm Apr 24, 2020 10:30pm
Just to clarify I currently have two abcd triangles with different points for c and c1, I think they are both valid and price seems to be respecting both of them. This has been mentioned previously in this thread(the multiple values). The interesting part is that the difference in this range is quite big.
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  • #6,233
  • Apr 24, 2020 11:05pm Apr 24, 2020 11:05pm
Quoting CptOrlando
{quote} Hello, Just wondering but have I drawn this abcd correctly because you did not mention it in your 1h? {image}
Not quite correct and by using candles and no 1period sma you are making things difficult for yourself to see stuff.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Look at mine here below how clean it is to see the stuff beginning with the div at the bottom. Candles clutter charts
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Unless you have a specific reason for using candles I would stick to electricity.
  • #6,234
  • Edited 11:17pm Apr 24, 2020 11:07pm | Edited 11:17pm
Quoting CptOrlando
Just to clarify I currently have two abcd triangles with different points for c and c1, I think they are both valid and price seems to be respecting both of them. This has been mentioned previously in this thread(the multiple values). The interesting part is that the difference in this range is quite big. {image}
No! your smaller one is the valid one... The other is just hanging around in the range

Look at post 6230 The green ABCD was hit to the short side . Then a new signal (red) was given when the line of sight came into view (RSI) price was still in div with A on opposite sides of the EMA so we have a new ABCD.

Actually on the 1 hour chart (6233) that larger green triangle of the left was another of these situations. Came into line of sight on the RSI
  • #6,235
  • Apr 25, 2020 1:21am Apr 25, 2020 1:21am
Quoting Nala66
OK here goes with the 15 min. ABC forms the CON/DIV but we have 3 possible C's. This gives us a range of levels to aim for i.e. 1, 2, 3 {image}
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Glad to hear you are getting the hang of it. Keep plotting the charts though to keep in practice and after a while you will spot things automatically. {image}
Sorry, just not sure how the one's I made are different from what you did in the above? Both of the above quotes you drew ranges on your abcd?

This is something you posted later on so is this the reason we stop drawing ranges? go with the smaller targets and look at something else later once it completes?
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Yes but I always take the smaller more reliable target first. I can look at other options later down the track. {image}
Thanks
  • #6,236
  • Apr 25, 2020 4:17am Apr 25, 2020 4:17am
Quoting Nala66
This was difficult to trade yesterday (Fri 24th) {image}
Thanks Alan for that comment, i also found it difficult, we had two rsi hooks on the 5 minuet chart with divergence, at 7.10 am and 8.10 am, the one hour rsi was over sold so i was buying at these 5m divergences, they also coincided with previous one hour lows.

The first hook I got stopped out for a loss, infact i had a few losses for being inpatient and frighted i will miss the boat, this is a bad habit and something i am trying to curb in my trading, thankfully i eventually bought the low so made good, did you have the low of 1.22969 marked on your chart if so, could you show me how you obtained it.
Thanks
  • #6,237
  • Apr 25, 2020 9:33pm Apr 25, 2020 9:33pm
Quoting CptOrlando
{quote} {quote} Sorry, just not sure how the one's I made are different from what you did in the above? Both of the above quotes you drew ranges on your abcd? This is something you posted later on so is this the reason we stop drawing ranges? go with the smaller targets and look at something else later once it completes? {quote} Thanks
No need to be sorry it is probably my fault anyway. I was exploring the possibility of the ABCD forming a range of D target values as I was trying to work out what was happening and have since found that a new value does not happen until a prior one has been executed.

What I mean by range is that the price stays roughly between the two 50% levels for a time.

Bad idea by me to use the term range in two different situations this can only lead to confusion. Anyway I have dropped the notion of D being multiple targets.

I note the example you use for the 15 min chart. I have actually drawn this wrong also, the C point was the bar to the left (the first to close across the EMA) this means that on that example the price hit the target D on the short side. (I think)

So to explain why your chart was in error, your C point was not the first close across the EMA but rather several bars later.

Now having said that we get situations where it is not the first closing cross because there is no direct line of sight on the RSI.

Complicated huh! This is why I try to stick to the simple ones.

I hope this helps and appreciate your questions because they bring resolutions.
  • #6,238
  • Apr 25, 2020 10:39pm Apr 25, 2020 10:39pm
Quoting logic38
{quote} Thanks Alan for that comment, i also found it difficult, we had two rsi hooks on the 5 minuet chart with divergence, at 7.10 am and 8.10 am, the one hour rsi was over sold so i was buying at these 5m divergences, they also coincided with previous one hour lows. The first hook I got stopped out for a loss, infact i had a few losses for being inpatient and frighted i will miss the boat, this is a bad habit and something i am trying to curb in my trading, thankfully i eventually bought the low so made good, did you have the low of 1.22969 marked...
Actually this brings up the question of persistence.

We should not be discouraged by stop outs and if we use a good money management practice they should have little effect on our bottom line.

If we keep to the notion of losing a little but winning a lot and our entries are based on good probabilities of being right we should be OK.

Now for that low and why we had so much trouble.

The fast RSI was way down low but this can also mean momentum but we both seem to have taken it as oversold (for want of a better term) and took the 5 min div.

This div (marked as wrong div) did return and cross the EMA but the bulls did not find support and it formed an ABCD (green 5 min)

Price hit the D target on the short side and then formed another bull div after the target was hit. I find these are the better divs.

Again we take the bull div but as yet we can't see the target. This forms later (magenta) when the line of sight comes into view on the RSI and on the price they points are still on opposite sides of the EMA. Once the bulls eventually found support it ran straight to the target D.

I know this is messy and this is why it was hard to trade. However as I said persistence pays, I wasn't persistent and quit too early.

That was the logic Logic38 I hope that was logical.

Whoops forgot the picture... Here it is.
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  • #6,239
  • Apr 26, 2020 8:52am Apr 26, 2020 8:52am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Actually this brings up the question of persistence. We should not be discouraged by stop outs and if we use a good money management practice they should have little effect on our bottom line. If we keep to the notion of losing a little but winning a lot and our entries are based on good probabilities of being right we should be OK. Now for that low and why we had so much trouble. The fast RSI was way down low but this can also mean momentum but we both seem to have taken it as oversold (for want of a better term) and took the 5 min div....
Ha Ha yes very logical, thank you Alan for sparing your time, and giving me your insight on this.

Steve
  • #6,240
  • Apr 26, 2020 2:52pm Apr 26, 2020 2:52pm
Quoting Nala66
Just a little bit of scary information... Since the beginning of FEB I have made 4842% I don't really like to post these things but here I make the exception to show how powerful this is.
Good afternoon! I have been following this thread for a while and I think there is a lot of valuable information for traders of all skill levels . However , claims of such enormous profits are usually seen in the marketing of fake EAs , online courses etc. , but it is clear that this is not your intention and I truly believe you just want to share your knowledge which I respect. The reason I'm writing this is because I'm at an earlier stage of my journey and I'm looking for some clarification. If you continue with these profits ,by next year you should technically be a billionaire. So I guess my question is, what limitations are there to this ? Is it just a matter of using small lots ( something you couldn't replicate with larger profits ) ? Basic micro economics teaches us that if such hypernormal profits are accessible to the Average Joe , more people would join this market and compete with you for liquidity which changes the entire market structure , rendering your strategy redundant ( especially if you're sharing it online ) . Given the tools we have available as retail traders , different strategies are just different expressions of the same fundamental principles . I have developed and tested many trading systems and I have found that regardless of whether the system is based on harmonic geometry, statistical calculations , volume analysis etc. , the triggers to buy/sell occur and approximately the same points. So assuming that you don't have any technological edges or you're not exploiting the biggest loophole in the forex market , I'm just wondering how you achieve such profits, if it's really the case.

I sincerely hope you don't interpret this the wrong way, it's just a way for me to gain some more information to add to the puzzle , and for the simple fact that you are dedicating time to share your findings I wish you all the best.

Thank you,
Andy
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