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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #6,281
  • May 5, 2020 10:36pm May 5, 2020 10:36pm
Hi Alan and all. Over the last several weeks I studied and have just completed reading the thread, all associated documents created from it and journalling notes (lockdown has its benefits lol). I wanted to say thank-you Alan and long-time contributors, for sharing your experience and knowledge for the benefit of others like myself. Some of the concepts - particularly the ABCD and AB=CD had me re-reading several times over but I made headway in understanding in the end, I would recommend anyone struggling with the targeting concepts to go back over the material a few times, it managed to get into my foggy brain eventually so.... :-). No doubt when I start live trading again, events will unfold leading to questions, I hope this forum continues to thrive so that I can table them and get involved. Best wishes Alan et al and thanks again from across the ditch in sunny New Zealand. J
  • #6,282
  • May 5, 2020 10:38pm May 5, 2020 10:38pm
Alan - I have a question that I cannot answer from reviewing the study material in my journal.

In post 3803 you demonstrate a money mgt principle that highlights the application of the hedging process and that is clear and understandable to me. Then in post 4239, you set out a strategy for loading positions which used the idea of loading in an opposing direction to the perceived/analysed target. The mantra for this was… “load in the opposite direction you are expecting price to go and hedge it in the correct direction”.

Many moons later, in post 5040 you set out some rules for trade mgt which begins with “Trades go with the trend ….scalp or hedges go against it”.

Can I assume that both these last 2 posts are not in conflict and my query is just based on semantics of my understanding of what the moves are described as in terms of hedges and scalps? Or did I miss a change away from the opposing loading idea? Cheers J
  • #6,283
  • May 5, 2020 11:10pm May 5, 2020 11:10pm
Hi again Alan, I promise to shut up after 3 posts in a row, so last query for now. As mentioned, I am in NZ and trading windows have sometimes challenged me. I am all for working in line with your recommendations to have a focused, but not long winded, session and in trying to effect a good life/family work balance I have tried on many occassions in the past to trade markets that provide a workable trading session during my kiwi daytime. Early in the thread (sorry don't have ref) you commented that this method could be applied to any instruments but understandably argued against the idea of folks trying to manage multiple markets.

Instruments that move in Tokyo/Sydney and NZ open therefore appeal greatly to me - if they can provide a workable income from your teachings.

In a later post discussing the multi instrument subject and the AJ you mentioned....

" I find it very difficult to lose any money at all on this pair and the lot cost is half that of the GU. So for me here is Australia it is a handy way to make a few bucks in the morning. However these are not normal times, volatility is very high so normally I would not even bother. The method I use on the AJ does not work on the GU."

So it looks like this method should not be applied to AJ and that something else needs to be done or perhaps there isn't, in your opinion anything workable/consistent I could apply your method to in our shared daytime hours? Would be very interested in your experienced thoughts as this potential would be huge for my family/life balance. Many thanks and sorry for cluttering the thread with 3 in a row. Paul.
  • #6,284
  • May 6, 2020 1:23am May 6, 2020 1:23am
Hi Paulnz57 lots of loaded questions there within the context of what you speak of.

Let's deal with the pairs. The GU is a far greater mover than the others you list which I also trade from time to time.

From the appropriate time i.e. the 108 it is very common for the market to move well over 40 pips in a single direction and by compounding our entries we can exploit this fact to our advantage. We cannot get it right all the time so we have a money management plan to limit the risk.

So far we have the pair, the time and the money management. We still need the entry and the target which I have gone to a great deal of explanation in an attempt to cover it.

So it is a process of many parts in which we have options.

If we attempted to apply this to the AJ we would find it takes many hours to make 40 pips or so, which is fine to keep the risk smaller but has the opposite effect of keeping the profits smaller also. Profit is always welcome no matter what the size of it is and we can certainly build a nice account over time. It is this time factor that makes a heck of a difference to the efficiency equation. Why would we not like to achieve in a couple of hours what would otherwise takes many weeks?

I don't know from one day to the next which way I am going to trade or if I will reach my target, all I know for sure is if I don't try I definitely will not succeed so I stick to the same routine and if I can't envisage the action I wait for another day where I can.

I also use a different method for the AJ/AU and certainly the cost is half so we can load more with a smaller pip target say 25pips. Many of the aspects I use to trade the GU are present but the targets differ making the money management a tad different See the charts below there was not 40 pips in it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,285
  • May 6, 2020 7:26am May 6, 2020 7:26am
Thanks for such prompt feedback Alan and nice to meet you. Yes I take your point about the efficiency aspect of achieving targets, maybe my approach can be that I do the best I can with the day market AJ and whatever is left to achieve, I work on in my evenings with the preferred GU. Maybe some days I will have reduced my target from the day results to enable a shorter evening session and see the family :-). I'll need to think this idea through properly, relative to your trade/money mgt teachings.

A while ago I did some sleep studies and experimented with 2 x 4hr sleep sessions per day, waking for the US morning sessions, between 1am and 3am, was a bit ambitious of me, might have been ok when I was in my 30's but despite the science, I didn't fare so well being in my 60's and couldn't sustain it and remain healthy :-).
  • #6,286
  • May 6, 2020 10:02am May 6, 2020 10:02am
Quoting Paulnz57
Thanks for such prompt feedback Alan and nice to meet you. Yes I take your point about the efficiency aspect of achieving targets, maybe my approach can be that I do the best I can with the day market AJ and whatever is left to achieve, I work on in my evenings with the preferred GU. Maybe some days I will have reduced my target from the day results to enable a shorter evening session and see the family :-). I'll need to think this idea through properly, relative to your trade/money mgt teachings. A while ago I did some sleep studies and experimented...
Well I'm in my seventies and have problems with eye strain and the resulting headaches. Sometimes I stay clear of the PC for a while, it certainly isn't healthy at all to stare at bars all day.

It doesn't really matter what your targets are as long as you achieve them and don't give back all you make.

At 60 if you doubled your account just once a year then by the time you are my age you will be very wealthy.
  • #6,287
  • May 6, 2020 9:54pm May 6, 2020 9:54pm
I will go away and play with the numbers from your money mgt sections relative to the AJ movement potential Alan, thanks.

A short while back you posted a reference to the returns you had made between Feb and April with that $100 account (approx 4.8k from memory). Seeing the negative responses in other threads to performance claims, I understood why you were cautionary about sharing that but thank you for doing so, because it did highlight the potential of the sum of all parts of this method you have created.

When you look at that level of potential and compare it to 10 yrs worth of returns at 100% per year, it surely must offer glimmers of hope to even the most cautious risk averse traders and when one has been battling, a bit of hope is often the only kick in the butt we need to get moving. :-).
  • #6,288
  • May 7, 2020 3:29am May 7, 2020 3:29am
Have to say very interesting price action this morning. Made the quota with all the up and down moves despite missing the initial spike up from the Frankfurt Open.

Reminded me of Tuesday earlier in the week. Made the quota in a roundabout fashion that morning as well. Enjoyable trading.

All credit to Alan's system though, being able to read the moves even if you miss the boat initially.

Anyhow, just some thoughts. Hope you all caught some pips this morning
  • #6,289
  • May 7, 2020 9:11am May 7, 2020 9:11am
Hello Everyone
I Just wanted to leave a message saying Thank you to Alan for really changing my trading life and to everyone else who has contributed in sharing knowledge and experience to this group. I have been silently reading this forum for a while now trying to learn this system and i am improving day by day in the methods you teach. I am 24 and have been trading for 2 years very inconsistently i may add (naked charts, PA, etc) and this has really helped me change that and i'm confident this will have a huge impact on changing the rest of my life so thank you.
  • #6,290
  • May 7, 2020 12:57pm May 7, 2020 12:57pm
Quoting des_b
Hi Alan et al, As requested an option to display Target Prices etc, In addition I have modified the Indicator to allow the indicator to analyse as many bars back as you want (please be careful of resources as I cannot guarantee the efficiency of the code) Cheers...Des {file}
Hello des
A big thank you for your indicator
Now I identify the triangles
But sorry I understand nothing to the recrangles, how they work ???!
Should be great to explain me a bit
Sorry for that
Thanks a lot again
Chris
  • #6,291
  • May 8, 2020 9:56am May 8, 2020 9:56am
I downloaded your indicator too Des, so thanks very much from me also. Happy hunting :-)
  • #6,292
  • May 8, 2020 10:52am May 8, 2020 10:52am
Quoting Elsaloon
{quote} Hello des A big thank you for your indicator Now I identify the triangles But sorry I understand nothing to the recrangles, how they work ???! Should be great to explain me a bit Sorry for that Thanks a lot again Chris
Hi Elsaloon/Paulnz57,

Glad you find the indicator useful, however I only coded what Alan had described so the real credit resides with Alan. With regard to the rectangles they relate to a previous post in which Alan had shown a "waterfall" of trades as the EMA cascaded up or down and he described a rectangle as a useful tool for entry. To be honest after putting these in the application I am not sure if it merely adds to confusion and suggest it may be wiser to stick to Alan's core strategy. I personally have not used them as I am focusing on getting as best as I can with diversion/EMA etc etc which is more than enough for me to concentrate on

Cheers....Des
  • #6,293
  • May 8, 2020 11:10am May 8, 2020 11:10am
Thanks a lot Des
i’ve seen the Alan’s post but did’t understand. May be Alan can explain a little bit.
Otherwise, it should be very kind from you to code an indicator for the divergences especialy HD and RSI (Alan divergences)
I admit i miss some
Thanks again
Chris
  • #6,294
  • May 8, 2020 11:18am May 8, 2020 11:18am
I think I folow all the rules, but it is dificult for me to make money,
Now I succed to not loose, better!
Thanks to all posting here
When I’ll be successfull, I’do my best to help
Chris
  • #6,295
  • May 9, 2020 9:32pm May 9, 2020 9:32pm
I have had little chance to get to the PC this week.

Not being here at the right time has resulted in what I would term gamble trading and lost as a result. I had 1300 in the account now it is at 770 (I have withdrawn 10K though so this is not a problem for me,)

This is what I mean by trading when ones mind is somewhere else. My son in law is once again undergoing Kemo causing mental stresses I can well do without.

One thing after another and I suspect this is a bad year for many with the Covid virus. Fortunately I am in Australia where it has been managed very well.

It looks like the school runs will begin again on Monday which just happens to be on bar 108 so I will have to work around that.
  • #6,296
  • May 10, 2020 5:10am May 10, 2020 5:10am
Quoting Nala66
I have had little chance to get to the PC this week. Not being here at the right time has resulted in what I would term gamble trading and lost as a result. I had 1300 in the account now it is at 770 (I have withdrawn 10K though so this is not a problem for me,) This is what I mean by trading when ones mind is somewhere else. My son in law is once again undergoing Kemo causing mental stresses I can well do without. One thing after another and I suspect this is a bad year for many with the Covid virus. Fortunately I am in Australia where it has been...
Hello Alan
Yes it is a bad year for many people
I’ loosing my business
Hope the cable swings will save me
You have a fantastic small group of friends folowing you and you have the satisfaction to help them.
Cheers
Chris
  • #6,297
  • May 10, 2020 6:53pm May 10, 2020 6:53pm
Alan sorry to read about your Son in Law. The last few weeks was a stressful one in my family too, the situation made worse by the Covid restrictions, so I have much empathy for you and your family in this situation. Kind of you to share some lessons from the experience given the circumstances. I hope all goes well, very best wishes.
  • #6,298
  • May 11, 2020 1:04am May 11, 2020 1:04am
Quoting Nala66
I have had little chance to get to the PC this week. Not being here at the right time has resulted in what I would term gamble trading and lost as a result. I had 1300 in the account now it is at 770 (I have withdrawn 10K though so this is not a problem for me,) This is what I mean by trading when ones mind is somewhere else. My son in law is once again undergoing Kemo causing mental stresses I can well do without. One thing after another and I suspect this is a bad year for many with the Covid virus. Fortunately I am in Australia where it has been...
Sorry to hear about your son in law's health problem. Hope he will recover and your daughter (and kids?) receive enough strength to go through this. Same for you.

Regarding your losing trades, do you mind to post a chart with these trades plotted and a comment on that trading?

I myself am on hold regarding trading, recovering from a serie hart attacks. Just doing an additional trading study. Hope to be back in a month.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #6,299
  • May 11, 2020 2:49am May 11, 2020 2:49am
Guys

Thanks for sharing the difficult time you and family are going through in health , business and trading.

My thoughts are with you and family.

Blessings to you all
  • #6,300
  • May 11, 2020 3:15am May 11, 2020 3:15am
Quoting Nala66
I have had little chance to get to the PC this week. Not being here at the right time has resulted in what I would term gamble trading and lost as a result. I had 1300 in the account now it is at 770 (I have withdrawn 10K though so this is not a problem for me,) This is what I mean by trading when ones mind is somewhere else. My son in law is once again undergoing Kemo causing mental stresses I can well do without. One thing after another and I suspect this is a bad year for many with the Covid virus. Fortunately I am in Australia where it has been...
Hi Alan,

Sorry to hear that your son in law is having to undergo Chemo again, I am sure this is a stressful time for your family and I hope that your daughter and son in law are coping well. Obviously I don't know any of the circumstances surrounding your son in law, however my wife is a cancer nurse specialist and often tells me that many of her patients learn to manage the disease and she has many examples of patients who have been managing the disease successfully on a chronic basis for many years. Fingers crossed your son in law falls into this camp.

Kind Regards

Des
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