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Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

  • #681
  • Apr 9, 2020 10:56am Apr 9, 2020 10:56am
Trading doesn't have to be hard. Sheep will be sheep. Check out the sheep index -


So what we have here is retail Shorts are INCREASING as price moves up.

And we have retail LONGS decreasing.

This is the herd mentality. For some reason it is UNNATURAL for retail traders to just trade in the direction price is moving.

There is an urge for the sheep to go opposite the move.

The crystal ball called this move long before it happened.

And while the sheep increase short - price will continue to take their over leveraged liquidity.

Week after week.

Trading doesn't have to be hard.

You just need directional bias (provided by retail sentiment shifts and extremes) and patience to let it play out.
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  • #682
  • Apr 9, 2020 5:14pm Apr 9, 2020 5:14pm
Quoting SentiFX
Trading doesn't have to be hard. Sheep will be sheep. Check out the sheep index - So what we have here is retail Shorts are INCREASING as price moves up. And we have retail LONGS decreasing. This is the herd mentality. For some reason it is UNNATURAL for retail traders to just trade in the direction price is moving. There is an urge for the sheep to go opposite the move. The crystal ball called this move long before it happened. And while the sheep increase short - price will continue to take their over leveraged liquidity. Week after week. Trading...
What is the difference between the light and thick red?
How is the bubble indicator involved and doing in all this?
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #683
  • Edited 4:42am Apr 10, 2020 4:27am | Edited 4:42am
Quoting skyf
{quote} What is the difference between the light and thick red? How is the bubble indicator involved and doing in all this?
Light Red/Blue = Actual Positioning

Dark Red/Blue = Net Positioning

The Sentiment Analysis Tool (bubble indicator) shows the same thing as both of these Sentiment Indicators - it's just a different way to view it.

The bubbles shifting across the Y axis is the same as relative change shifting in the mt4 indicator. The Sentiment Analysis Tool has additional features like basket analysis so you can see how sentiment ranks for a particular currency against all other currencies.

Does that make sense?
  • #684
  • Apr 12, 2020 12:42pm Apr 12, 2020 12:42pm
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} Light Red/Blue = Actual Positioning Dark Red/Blue = Net Positioning The Sentiment Analysis Tool (bubble indicator) shows the same thing as both of these Sentiment Indicators - it's just a different way to view it. The bubbles shifting across the Y axis is the same as relative change shifting in the mt4 indicator. The Sentiment Analysis Tool has additional features like basket analysis so you can see how sentiment ranks for a particular currency against all other currencies. Does that make sense?
Yes little by little.
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #685
  • Apr 13, 2020 1:53pm Apr 13, 2020 1:53pm
Current Currency Strength Readings
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  • #686
  • Edited 12:51pm Apr 14, 2020 11:51am | Edited 12:51pm
Check This Out: Sentiment and Market Structure is a HUGE edge no matter how you trade

Today I used the Sentiment Indicators and...

Took 4 day trades using a method that I had discovered 6 years ago.

The method from 6 years ago was only lacking one thing - strong directional bias. Other than that - it was a perfect market map.

Using Sentiment and Market Structure as a directional guide - I was able to have a 75% win rate and almost 3:1 reward to risk.

Going to experiment with using that system along with directional bias from Sentiment and Market Structure.

It's not really about which method you trade - it's more about the directional edge that using Sentiment and Market Structure provide that is very important.

It's the missing piece.
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  • #687
  • Apr 14, 2020 1:24pm Apr 14, 2020 1:24pm
The Markets aren't Manipulated and no one can predict ...They Say....

Knowing this one edge from a week ago would have made the last 5-7 trading days easy.

When retail were piling in long dollar on pairs.... well.... somebody has to lose.
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  • #688
  • Apr 15, 2020 1:20am Apr 15, 2020 1:20am
Quoting SentiFX
Check This Out: Sentiment and Market Structure is a HUGE edge no matter how you trade Today I used the Sentiment Indicators and... Took 4 day trades using a method that I had discovered 6 years ago. The method from 6 years ago was only lacking one thing - strong directional bias. Other than that - it was a perfect market map. Using Sentiment and Market Structure as a directional guide - I was able to have a 75% win rate and almost 3:1 reward to risk. Going to experiment with using that system along with directional bias from Sentiment and Market...
This result shows there is some edge here. Hope the 6byear old system is simpler and more empirical than market structure analysis.
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #689
  • Apr 15, 2020 6:29am Apr 15, 2020 6:29am
Quoting skyf
{quote} This result shows there is some edge here. Hope the 6byear old system is simpler and more empirical than market structure analysis.
What do you find challenging or most difficult with Market Structure Analysis?
  • #690
  • Apr 15, 2020 9:11am Apr 15, 2020 9:11am
USD Current Situation

The USD has shifted to the upside. Price pushed to fill the Liquidity Gap to the left and quickly retreated to a key BUY area.

The expectation at this point is for the USD to continue upward.

Relative Sentiment is showing confirmation across pairs that retail is starting to SHORT heavily which is a good indication that price is going to continue upward.
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  • #691
  • Apr 15, 2020 11:42am Apr 15, 2020 11:42am
Price is pulling back deeper than expected here. But until the low of 98.80 is broken for DXY then the directional bias is UP as far as Market Structure is concerned.

Looking at pairs with Sentiment where Retail is trying to short the Dollar the most (using relative sentiment).
  • #692
  • Apr 15, 2020 6:06pm Apr 15, 2020 6:06pm
Sentiment + Market Structure = Crystal Ball
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  • #693
  • Apr 16, 2020 8:05am Apr 16, 2020 8:05am
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} What do you find challenging or most difficult with Market Structure Analysis?
It doesn't seem to be empirical and understandable to mainly experts.
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #694
  • Apr 16, 2020 8:31am Apr 16, 2020 8:31am
The Magic Crystal Ball for Forex

Price was around 99.67 at the time. Expectation was for price to break up to target as mentioned previously in these posts.

DXY headed there now. You could have easily made money with just the directional bias of Market Structure that I mentioned before.

But the easiest money was using Sentiment along with the previous analysis.

Needless to say, you don't have to capture the whole move. You just need a directional bias that Market Structure and Sentiment give you - then you can take all that you want from the market. Every.... single.... week.
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  • #695
  • Apr 16, 2020 8:51am Apr 16, 2020 8:51am
Funny how the USD direction was "unclear" by news an hour ago but crystal clear 24 hours ago to us.
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  • #696
  • Apr 16, 2020 9:47am Apr 16, 2020 9:47am
3 Ticks. Can it do it?

The USDX came within 3 ticks of hitting the target area.

Can it reach it?
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  • #697
  • Apr 16, 2020 9:56am Apr 16, 2020 9:56am
Basket Analysis shows USDCAD has been a strong buy for last two days.

Most pairs are clustered on the buy side (left of Y axis) and the best opportunities are closer to the Strong BUY area.

How is basket analysis done?

It looks at all pairs as USD/XXX for instance to compare all other pairs to the USD.

If the bubbles cluster on the left side of Y axis, USD is a buy.

If the bubbles cluster on the right side of the Y axis, USD is a sell.

The further to the bottom left the bubbles are - the stronger the BUY signal and the further to the top right of the quadrant - the stronger the SELL signal.

You'll notice USDJPY and AUDUSD are the highest bubbles up there - and look at the charts. They are the weakest movers in respect to the USD move.


Could you have made money trading USDCAD?
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  • #698
  • Apr 16, 2020 10:26am Apr 16, 2020 10:26am
NZD is a great example for Basket Analysis

NZD as a WHOLE is in the sell/Strong Sell area.... and market structure is aligned with it.

Traders - This is an easy opportunity if you sell any NZD rallies.
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  • #699
  • Apr 16, 2020 3:18pm Apr 16, 2020 3:18pm
Dont like the PA in the hour after NY close for NU.

Plus being a Friday trading day... not the best time to enter a swing on this.

No trade for me.
  • #700
  • Apr 17, 2020 2:22am Apr 17, 2020 2:22am
Quoting SentiFX
Dont like the PA in the hour after NY close for NU. Plus being a Friday trading day... not the best time to enter a swing on this. No trade for me.
In myfxbook NZDUSD is not below 25 as the bubbles indicator says.
?

Is longs increasing in relative sentiment indi yo call short?
So you would have sold if not for today being Friday?
I wish they would allow me click like in your post that's understood.
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
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