DislikedJust closed some more as we are now under SMA... Check your oxygen tubes we will be soon under the water...Ignored
- #522
- Edited 11:12pm Apr 13, 2020 10:49pm | Edited 11:12pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
{quote} Good morning; yes I closed all the longs, are you thinking this as a start of bearish signal (zero )?
Well your question comes a bit later... as my answer, sorry, I was sleeping, it's still only 5h45 am in center Europe...
But yes, I anticipated a bearish signal but the following hours proved that it was all fake, we got everything, cross of the trend line and SMA and finally also the signal but it only lasted one bar! And the price rebounded from there, and from there we got a fresh new long signal and more than that, the price traveled back above our previous trend line which forced me to close my anticipated shorts and enter a new long to be in sync again with the trend.
Bororo was asking previously if we were going to have our first failure, well this was it !
Regarding my failure, I still think that my anticipation was OK, we can't know in the beginning how things will unfold. What I think I did wrong this time was the timing, I entered additional lots too late after the London close and also late in the NY session and it's not the first time it happens so from now I will avoid to enter at those times even if I have to miss the signal, there is always a wave 1 to enter. This will be my lesson for future trades...
Now, I haven't a clear view of the duration of the remaining of the current trend but I think that by the end of the week we will be fixed. I will keep my entry as long as the trend remains valid but won't add more to it and just wait for the next signal. After a failure I think it's convenient to be prudent and I'm still green for the month and have to protect that.
Updating with a chart.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #523
- Edited 1:09am Apr 14, 2020 12:47am | Edited 1:09am
In my short experience, there has not been a 100% working strategy! But with proper management a 70% working strategy will pay you. This strategy has close to a 90% or more chance to succeed "if it is followed!"
I salute you broketrader! I salute all who have been following!
P.s the last signal occurred while I was asleep!
Edited
Added the chart I see this morning
I salute you broketrader! I salute all who have been following!
P.s the last signal occurred while I was asleep!
Edited
Added the chart I see this morning
Rise or fall....a better me!
- #524
- Apr 14, 2020 2:36am Apr 14, 2020 2:36am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
In my short experience, there has not been a 100% working strategy! But with proper management a 70% working strategy will pay you. This strategy has close to a 90% or more chance to succeed "if it is followed!" I salute you broketrader! I salute all who have been following! P.s the last signal occurred while I was asleep!
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
But yes, I anticipated a bearish signal but the following hours proved that it was all fake, we got everything, cross of the trend line and SMA and finally also the signal but it only lasted one bar! And the price rebounded from there, and from there we got a fresh new long signal and more than that, the price traveled back above our previous trend line which forced me to close my anticipated shorts and enter a new long to be in sync again with the trend.
Bororo was asking previously if we were going to have our first failure, well this was it...
Hello Broketrader,
In my opinion it isn't a failure if you draw your trendline with the candle's wick instead of the closing price. In that case you will see that the closing price at your signal was still a little bit over the trendline. And more surprisingly, as seen in my screenshot, you will also see the price has rebounded at almost the same time on a longer red trendline that I still have on my chart with daily price peaked in the 9th march and 27th march. Nevertheless I did not took into account these trendlines and was convinced the price will be bearish, and so I took a selling trade !! Hopefully, after this big mistake the 1h trendline continued during today to act as a big support.
- #527
- Apr 15, 2020 12:30am Apr 15, 2020 12:30am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #529
- Apr 15, 2020 12:56am Apr 15, 2020 12:56am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
{quote} Hello Broketrader, In my opinion it isn't a failure if you draw your trendline with the candle's wick instead of the closing price. In that case you will see that the closing price at your signal was still a little bit over the trendline. And more surprisingly, as seen in my screenshot, you will also see the price has rebounded at almost the same time on a longer red trendline that I still have on my chart with daily price peaked in the 9th march and 27th march. Nevertheless I did not took into account these trendlines and was convinced...
I think that choosing the wicks instead of closing prices is more personal than any other thing, personally I consider that everything below 1h is noise, that's why I draw my trend lines using the close and also because it gives you an exact moment to declare if things are wrong or not, that moment being the closing of the candle so no problem to anyone to chose how he draws the lines.
That said, I see 2 flaws in your analysis:
1. Using the trend line you draw, above your arrow where you state "wrong signal as closing price is still above the trendline" there is that green candle that follows which goes well beyond your line, and if you draw trendlines using the wicks, you expect the price never going beyond it, so now, after the fact you say closing price because that arranges you because at the moment the price was there, below the trend, you couldn't know that it was going to rebound, it could very well have traveled 30 pips more downside.
2. If you use wicks to draw trendlines, why you ignore the one at the beginning of the trend ? I think that's wrong and the trend line would have been like this instead...
And you see that this trendline gets broken as well.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #530
- Apr 15, 2020 3:01am Apr 15, 2020 3:01am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #532
- Apr 15, 2020 5:50am Apr 15, 2020 5:50am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #533
- Apr 15, 2020 6:37am Apr 15, 2020 6:37am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #537
- Apr 15, 2020 9:06am Apr 15, 2020 9:06am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
EURUSD sell confirmed! chart {image}
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #538
- Apr 15, 2020 11:25am Apr 15, 2020 11:25am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
