Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Hi Parisboy
Thanks for your contributions on this site.
I am a break even trader being dabbling for the last 10 years just new to this site.Mainly price action at support and resistance areas.I have been attracted to Jenkins techniques by the claims of many on and off this forum.

I am curious as to why you think Jenkins work is not easily tradeable ?Is it because you trade a 1 minute chart and it does not suit your style?
Or is the envelope system more to your liking due to more triggers.Indeed your pip win rate looks awesome.
Forgive my ignorance but isnt it hard being profitable with the 1 minute chart.

I have received this message today and will answer progressively the various points.

a) I am curious as to why you think Jenkins work is not easily tradeable ?

As Jenkins is a "Gann inspired trader or mentor" , I was interested in him some years ago long before DiamondMiner opened his dedicated thread on FF.

Roughly Jenkins does not use or build a "comprehensive" System but much more a collection of tools more or less efficient.
Following this path Jenkins is a real continuator of Gann, because Gann proceeded exactly in the same way.

What are the real questions ?

Have you a system or not ? Bollinger has not a trading system he offers an indicator.

If you have a "system" to trade , is it free or commercial ?

If you make money mostly selling your system , you have to disclose part of it to attract and satellize customers, but you keep the main part for paying customers (if this part really exists) moreover to keep and assure the maintenance of your customer basis, you need to feed this customer basis with "new" methods, tools etc.

hence the most complicated it is, the best. Because your customer basis needs explanations , translations you give to your customer basis under the form of paying books, seminars, webinars, access to your "trading room " etc.

As for Jenkins, look at the famous "6 H 30 Trading Video" , it is just a huge collection of tools and recipes of variable practical value.

Whatever the interest of the content, It is mainly a "commercial", a marketing tool. The most tools and recipes you display, the most prospects, the most guys can be interested in.

But can you remember and apply all the tools in your trading? - no
Can you remember all the recipes , trading advices etc in your trading practice - no

As for me I could not remember and apply but I am old and negative minded say some guys!

That is the trick. You flood your customers this way, you look like a great guy , a great trading mentor but nobody is able to summarize efficiently the Jenkins method (or the Gann method) because there is none.

Look at Support and resistance Levels - how many possibilities have you from a top (whicb kind of Top) or a low (which kind of Low)

according to your taste you can use Diagonal Support and Resistance - Jenkins secret Angle - why "secret" ?

or Horizontal Levels - which one ? Jenkins "natural" Levels - why "natural", Square Root Levels, Square Root of Square Root Levels, fibonacci levels, Octave levels

Hence the most "levels" horizontal, vertical or diagonal, you use, the most you are able to show results. and efficiency at least visible for newbies and customers, but on the same financial support ? on long term ?

No, I only glanced over whatever text/publications I could pin down online.

(My impression is that these guys over complicate everything. I already trade quite profitably with an extremely high success rate using my system as is, so I might look into what other traders have done or are doing out of curiosity, but I have absolutely no interest in altering what I do based on strategies I have not personally seen in action, or have no first-hand verified documentation can generate better returns than what I am now experiencing [which traders from another forum have diligently tried to convince me is impossible.])

Since "Centered Moving Averages," "Phasing Analysis," "Cyclic model," and "Valid Trend Lines" sounds akin to some of the tools I use, I imagine Millard, who you indicate does not include them, would have little to offer me. In checking out "Future Lines of Demarcation," I saw something that was a red flag for me which discouraged me from looking into them more deeply. If Hurst died a billionaire, I might be motivated to look into his stuff more than I have, but I don't think this was the case. Perhaps that's because in his day they could not fit the power of a giant mainframe (from that era) inside the guts of today's simple laptop or PC, with which Hurst would have been able to work miracles. In any case, I'm presently just too satisfied (and lazy?) with status quo to do all that reading.

Expiated I do not allow "satisfied and lazy" people unwilling to read , study and work the documentation offered here above to post on this thread

Those of you interested can read "expiated" here :

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...llenge.321929/

and here :

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...alyses.334096/

or here :

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa....339926/page-5

Is it because you trade a 1 minute chart and it does not suit your style?
Or is the envelope system more to your liking due to more triggers.Indeed your pip win rate looks awesome.
Forgive my ignorance but isnt it hard being profitable with the 1 minute chart.

Charts are charts . Whatever the timeframe the Envelope Triad System used shows on your screen the same 'look and feel" and endlessly the same patterns.

1 mn charts are no more difficult to trade than 60 mn charts.

The difference between both charts is that on a 60 mn chart you can observe 60 time less patterns than on a 1 mn chart.

IMHO opening a demo account and using a 1 mn chart is an excellent training for interested newbies

My pip win rate is not "awesome" . I have my share of losses as everybody.

The Envelope system is both a trend following system and trend reversal system

hence the key points are :

- how to confirm a trend reversal ?
- how to determine the Stop loss Levels

I try to improve my trading methodology using a post mortem analysis

SP 500 with 6 year (1536) Trading Days) and 12 Years (3072) Trading days Envelopes .

2 possible bearish targets

DOW JONES with 6 year (1536) Trading Days) and 12 Years (3072) Trading days Envelopes .

DAX with 6 year (1536) Trading Days)

CAC 40 with 6 year (1536) Trading Days) and 12 Years (3072) Trading days Envelopes .

NIKKEI with 6 year (1536) Trading Days) and 12 Years (3072) Trading days Envelopes .

ALL ORDINARIES with 6 year (1536) Trading Days) and 12 Years (3072) Trading days Envelopes .

I wonder if a weekly or monthly plot for the same period would look a lot different

BOVESPA with 6 year (1536) Trading Days) and 12 Years (3072) Trading days Envelopes .

NASDAQ with 6 year (1536) Trading Days) Envelopes .

Steve

IMHO weekly or monthly charts have presently zero interest. It is mainly a survivance of the past.

It was useful when you had to draw charts by hand;

Roughly, at the time with a weekly chart you saved 80 % of your time to have a grasp of an index or a chart comparatively to a dayly chart

With a monthly chart you saved 98 % of your time (12 points to draw against 256)

PB....thanks for that

S.

moreover Steve you can not buy a weekly or monthly High, Low Mid-Point etc

hence the use of Weekly or Monthly chart is limited to mid-term or Long Term analysis

DAX Weekly

DAX Monthly

Alain
If you need a grid ( I do) I think The Quarters Theory one makes a little more sense than Murrey as the pdf of the book you posted shows many examples of all the rules targets, stops etc
To me, the big advantage is the grid becomes a set and forget no matter what time frame used.
Price action is and always will be the key at the correct levels, we all have our own methods to spot that, to keep the chart examples clean I have left the Envelopes off
I would highly recommend that guys that like trading with a grid and have some time on there hands, Read the Book, as to me its logical in its thought pattern and lays down well thought our rules
Of-course the bonus being instead of being + £300 its free with your pdf
Thanks again
Dave
Ps
Needless to say there are some decent videos about that are also well worth a watch in my humble opinion