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Forex is random

  • #301
  • Apr 7, 2020 8:34pm Apr 7, 2020 8:34pm
Quoting viptrading
{quote} What are you on about? When did I discuss my results with you? I simply said that it is 100% possible, not that you can profit from 100% of your trades... Once again, you are just adding no actual facts to your posts. Just assumptions and negativity. Maybe one day you will wake up and realize trading is not meant for pessimists.
I believe it's possible to make money in the markets. But I just get pissed when people flaunt theories they dont back up. Or when they claim it is easy to do. The reality is that 99%+ will not make it. That's why I say the market is efficient enough so 99.9% of the participants cant beat it consistently.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #302
  • Edited 8:57pm Apr 7, 2020 8:43pm | Edited 8:57pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} I believe it's possible to make money in the markets. But I just get pissed when people flaunt theories they dont back up. Or when they claim it is easy to do. The reality is that 99%+ will not make it. That's why I say the market is efficient enough so 99.9% of the participants cant beat it consistently.
This I agree. There are too many ppl lying about their success on forum. There are none telling the truth about their losses on forum.

That's why I wrote this.
Quoting BWilliam
Based on trading stats and logic people should not keep trying, quit and do something else is the obvious choice. Mingary is right. Market WILL convince eventually.
And this.
Quoting BWilliam
Market is complex. There are thousands of strategies. Based on simple ideas. Simple ideas don't work in a complex market. It's an obvious mismatch.
Know what you trade
  • #303
  • Apr 7, 2020 9:03pm Apr 7, 2020 9:03pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This I agree. There are too many ppl lying about their success on forum. There are none telling the truth about their losses on forum. That's why I wrote this. {quote} And this. {quote}
I think good solutions need not be complex to work. The simpler the idea the more effective it is.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #304
  • Apr 7, 2020 9:05pm Apr 7, 2020 9:05pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} I believe it's possible to make money in the markets. But I just get pissed when people flaunt theories they dont back up. Or when they claim it is easy to do. The reality is that 99%+ will not make it. That's why I say the market is efficient enough so 99.9% of the participants cant beat it consistently.
Again, what is your point exactly? You replied to my post telling me to keep dreaming and mentioned my results. I never once shared my trading results on here. That is not the point of this thread.

This thread is a discussion about Forex trading being a random walk. Which I am trying to explain to you it is not and that is 100% a fact.

You are going off topic and discussing my personal results which have nothing to do with this what we are discussing. You even say yourself you believe it is possible to profit from forex, so again what is your point.

Either you believe the market is a random walk, or you don't. Either you understand facts or you continue to believe fear mongering theories that you cannot backup.

By the way, who said 99% of traders fail. That statistic isn't even a fact either.

Read this.
http://forexillustrated.com/96-of-fo...s-been-busted/

So you see, it really isn't a fact that 99% of traders lose money. There is no actual way to know what the real number is. Yet people like yourself try to post fearmongering stats like that without any actual evidence to try and make yourself feel better for losing money.

Trading is hard work. And takes years to master. I never said it was easy, and that isn't even the point of this thread.

And by the way, what does my personal profitability or anyone else on this forum for that matter even matter when speaking on facts? It's like you're saying, "your not an NBA player, how do you know it's possible for anyone to become an NBA player? The NBA must be rigged noone can actually become a professional athelete."

Your logic makes 0 sense and it's actually detrimental to yourself, and others here who actually wish to succeed in trading as a career. Even if 9/10 people will fail long term the one that makes it will become extremely wealthy, so of course this isn't an easy career choice and it is not for anyone, clearly not for for anyone who is as pessimistic and uninformed as yourself judging by your posts.
  • #305
  • Apr 7, 2020 9:05pm Apr 7, 2020 9:05pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} I think good solutions need not be complex to work. The simpler the idea the more effective it is.
I assume you agree market is complex that's close to random.

Prove your simple solution assumption pls.

Anyone who adopt this same simple solution assumption post here your simple solution strategy for peer review validation.
Know what you trade
  • #306
  • Apr 7, 2020 9:11pm Apr 7, 2020 9:11pm
And another thing, since you want to take the pessimistic side of things all the time, here is a fact for you. Institutional traders, and money managers profit from 90% of the trades they take. That means 9 out of every trades they take is a profitable trade. How do you think they got there? I'll let you think about that one.

The stats of traders who lose money are based on RETAIL TRADERS. They do not include all traders like the ones who managed to get passed retail into the institutional level.

Of course most retail traders lose money, because they do not know how to trade, manage losses, or emotions well at all. Also, most of them quit before they get any good at it or lose interest completely, or are just not smart enough to figure it out.

Go back to my NBA analogy, most people who try and become pro don't make it, a large number do not make it, that does not mean it is impossible, just improbable. The harder you work however, the closer you get to achieving your goals.
  • #307
  • Apr 7, 2020 9:25pm Apr 7, 2020 9:25pm
About institutional investors the so-called "smart money".

Read this.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journ...91E4D0AAC7FD0A

And this.
https://mathinvestor.org/2018/09/hed...e-report-card/

"There are still opportunities for real positive-alpha investing. But, as we have emphasized before, these typically require advanced algorithms, high-tech machine learning techniques and access to big data. In other words, go high-tech, with big data, or leave the market to those who do." .....unquote
Know what you trade
  • #308
  • Apr 7, 2020 9:59pm Apr 7, 2020 9:59pm
Quoting BWilliam
About institutional investors the so-called "smart money". Read this. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journ...91E4D0AAC7FD0A And this. https://mathinvestor.org/2018/09/hed...e-report-card/ "There are still opportunities for real positive-alpha investing. But, as we have emphasized before, these typically require...
I hate to sound like a broken record, but what is your point? That first article is referencing STOCK trading. And the second is referencing hedge funds....

I only spoke on institutional trades in my previous post in regards to profitable trades.

What does any of this even have to do with the market being random or not? Why not make a separate thread to discuss whatever it is you two are talking about, I still don't know because you haven't made your points clear at all.
  • #309
  • Apr 7, 2020 10:17pm Apr 7, 2020 10:17pm
Quoting BWilliam
About institutional investors the so-called "smart money". Read this. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journ...91E4D0AAC7FD0A And this. https://mathinvestor.org/2018/09/hed...e-report-card/ "There are still opportunities for real positive-alpha investing. But, as we have emphasized before, these typically require...
OK, I was going to leave this discussion but then I saw this post. In an earlier post, I tried to point out how irrelevant it was to post the comments made by experts in equity or bond market trading when comparing FOREX trading. Yet, here are 2 reports on equity traders. Let's be clear: the FOREX is not like equity markets. Equity trading is not the same as trading currencies. If you know everything there is to know about making money trading stocks and bonds, then you know nothing about the FOREX, or at least, not enough to trade the FOREX. I thought you guys had some experience trading the FOREX, at least at the retail level. Apparently you do not (I still assume you know that E$ is not the same as, say, Amazon). But if you see these markets, and the skill set required to trade them, as being the same, you MUST stop trading the FOREX now. And to put a fine point on this, please remember that Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have both lost money trading currencies, because their skill set is insufficient to trade currencies. So, if you want to think the FOREX is a random walk, please explain what is random about a market that is controlled by national governments and central banks, through tier 1 and 2 banks? Explain what is random about market action that is the result of the Fed-approved bank trading practices and processes, all of which are nearly exactly the same across all banks? Of course, there are a few dozen more forces that play at times in the FOREX, but lets just keep it simple for now. Or, just continue to think about your FOREX trading with the same frame of mind as your equity trading buddies.
  • #310
  • Apr 7, 2020 10:38pm Apr 7, 2020 10:38pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} OK, I was going to leave this discussion but then I saw this post. In an earlier post, I tried to point out how irrelevant it was to post the comments made by experts in equity or bond market trading when comparing FOREX trading. Yet, here are 2 reports on equity traders. Let's be clear: the FOREX is not like equity markets. Equity trading is not the same as trading currencies. If you know everything there is to know about making money trading stocks and bonds, then you know nothing about the FOREX, or at least, not enough to trade the FOREX....
Lets be clear, you do not disagree that's the performance of institutional traders trading stocks.

Your objection is these reports refer to stock trading.

Do your own research, you find similar performance with institutional investors trading forex.

Here is the aggregate hedge fund performance.
https://www.eurekahedge.com/Indices/...dge_fund_Index
Know what you trade
  • #311
  • Apr 7, 2020 11:06pm Apr 7, 2020 11:06pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Lets be clear, you do not disagree that's the performance of institutional traders trading stocks. Your objection is these reports refer to stock trading. Do your own research, you find similar performance with institutional investors trading forex. Here is the aggregate hedge fund performance. https://www.eurekahedge.com/Indices/...dge_fund_Index
No sir, I do not doubt the information in the two articles you posted.

I do not know or care about the Eureka FX Hedge Fund or it's performance. When I look at an FX chart, I know it is the banks and the Fed that are making the candles, not the hedge funds. I don't trade with the hedge funds, and in fact, am not sure I should try to match their activities or think like them. They don't matter to me, and I assume I trade better than most of them...at least better than the good folks at Eureka FX Hedge Fund.
  • #312
  • Apr 7, 2020 11:16pm Apr 7, 2020 11:16pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I assume you agree market is complex that's close to random. Prove your simple solution assumption pls. Anyone who adopt this same simple solution assumption post here your simple solution strategy for peer review validation.
A simple system can just be trend following for example. The key is to find a way to filter the bad trades. I think I m getting better, I tried mechanically to filter the bad signals but I always failed. These days I just go on my intuition. I study the context of each trade, Highs and lows, environment, news, whatever information I can get. I still have to prove myself thou, but I think just trashing half of the trades away already improves the strategy.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #313
  • Apr 8, 2020 12:04am Apr 8, 2020 12:04am
Just make sure you stay away from systematic trading. I don't believe it works. You might have better results with it thou.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #314
  • Apr 8, 2020 12:29am Apr 8, 2020 12:29am
Quoting Rennaissance
Just make sure you stay away from systematic trading. I don't believe it works. You might have better results with it thou.
Can we both agree the market is heavy manipulated by big players and Algo’s. Therefore the answer is to develop trading systems that trade the manipulation, not the price action. If a trend really does exist, it’s the last thing we should be trading.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #315
  • Edited 12:56am Apr 8, 2020 12:46am | Edited 12:56am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} No sir, I do not doubt the information in the two articles you posted. I do not know or care about the Eureka FX Hedge Fund...... am not sure I should try to match their activities or think like them. They don't matter to me, and I assume I trade better than most of them...at least better than the good folks at Eureka FX Hedge Fund.
I respect your personal outlook.

I merely posted the report of institutional Forex hedge funds performance. This report is specific to Forex industry.

These traders hold MBA and PhD qualifications that you wrote about in your earlier post. The best brains money can buy.

These reports debunk the assumptions and claims on retail forum.
Know what you trade
  • #316
  • Apr 8, 2020 1:12am Apr 8, 2020 1:12am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} We all know there are pocket of non randomness in the markets. The problem is they don't repeat with any consistency. Therefore a non random event doesn't mean ability to profit.
If some parts of the market are not random, then the entire market can not be random, therefore trading can be profitable.
I have already shown you a TE with over 500 trades, with no trade lasting more than 1 hour, with about 160% profit not counting the ridiculous transaction cost I paid to trade, Proving that money can be made within this market.
I speak to profit-farmer often who is another individual that has an entire thread and an active TE showing/proofing he is profitable.
As we speak I am one of a few individuals who can say that they are truly a profitable trader.
Over my 3 years of trading, I am in net profit despite losing money for the last 2 and 1/2 years until I found my edge.
  • #317
  • Apr 8, 2020 1:16am Apr 8, 2020 1:16am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Can we both agree the market is heavy manipulated by big players and Algo’s. Therefore the answer is to develop trading systems that trade the manipulation, not the price action. If a trend really does exist, it’s the last thing we should be trading.

I don't believe the market is manipulated. Even the algos are fighting each other, it's not like there is just one algo running the show.

When you see it, BET big.
  • #318
  • Apr 8, 2020 1:20am Apr 8, 2020 1:20am
Quoting AmmaBoss
{quote} If some parts of the market are not random, then the entire market can not be random, therefore trading can be profitable. I have already shown you a TE with over 500 trades, with no trade lasting more than 1 hour, with about 160% profit not counting the ridiculous transaction cost I paid to trade, Proving that money can be made within this market. I speak to profit-farmer often who is another individual that has an entire thread and an active TE showing/proofing he is profitable. As we speak I am one of a few individuals who can say that...
I will need to observe your explorer for 20 days to see if you can repeat, what you did in the last 20 days. I have seen a lot of boom burst TE , sorry for my extreme cynicism.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #319
  • Apr 8, 2020 1:27am Apr 8, 2020 1:27am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} I will need to observe your explorer for 20 days to see if you can repeat, what you did in the last 20 days. I have seen a lot of boom burst TE , sorry for my extreme cynicism.
It actually 2 months period just move some money around and restarted my TE after the crash which wipes out a lot of my previous profits but ok.
If 2 months intraday trading with 1000+ trades isn't enough then so be it.
  • #320
  • Apr 8, 2020 1:33am Apr 8, 2020 1:33am
Quoting AmmaBoss
{quote} It actually 2 months period just move some money around and restarted my TE after the crash which wipes out a lot of my previous profits but ok. If 2 months intraday trading with 1000+ trades isn't enough then so be it.
If you don't have a mechanism to protect yourself from such move, don't you think your methodology is questionable or more precisely your risk management?
When you see it, BET big.
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