How do you come up with new strategies? | Forex Factory

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How do you come up with new strategies?

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 4, 2020 12:41am Apr 4, 2020 12:41am
As title say. From where or how do you catch the main idea in order to build a new strategy?

Thought it would be quite interesting hearing various opinions.

If this topic has already a thread sorry guys, didn't see it
There is no try
  • #2
  • Apr 5, 2020 9:59am Apr 5, 2020 9:59am
Research and testing.
  • #3
  • Apr 5, 2020 10:50am Apr 5, 2020 10:50am
Trial and error. Instead of trying to come up with a strategy, make sure you understand everything about the market first. Go to babypips.com and do the entire course. Then keep failing until you understand why.

Good luck.
  • #4
  • Apr 6, 2020 10:55am Apr 6, 2020 10:55am
I do not think that we create new strategies, the maximum we do is to adapt ready-made strategies in one way or another through the settings. Because creating a ready-made trading strategy is a complex and multi-component process that requires a lot of knowledge and a great understanding of the regularities and laws of the market. Although on this forum, as well as on others, I have seen how traders demonstrated their developments both for market analysis and for passive earning, and they looked quite good. But I personally believe that only the trader who really has serious enough knowledge and understanding of the market, which will allow him to create a quality product that is optimal for constant use, should take up these tasks.
  • #5
  • Apr 6, 2020 11:00am Apr 6, 2020 11:00am
Quoting Sajar
I do not think that we create new strategies, the maximum we do is to adapt ready-made strategies in one way or another through the settings. Because creating a ready-made trading strategy is a complex and multi-component process that requires a lot of knowledge and a great understanding of the regularities and laws of the market. Although on this forum, as well as on others, I have seen how traders demonstrated their developments both for market analysis and for passive earning, and they looked quite good. But I personally believe that only the...
Nice point of view. So you are saying that a newbie in order to come up with a strategy he/she have to find an already existing one and adapt for him/herself?

Isn't possibile, in your opinion, that someone who have studied and read many books create a strategy by doing his researches?
There is no try
  • #6
  • Apr 6, 2020 11:06am Apr 6, 2020 11:06am
You need facts and experience to develop a functional strategy.

KP

Quoting Wise-Jedi
{quote} Nice point of view. So you are saying that a newbie in order to come up with a strategy he/she have to find an already existing one and adapt for him/herself? Isn't possibile, in your opinion, that someone who have studied and read many books create a strategy by doing his researches?
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #7
  • Apr 6, 2020 11:29am Apr 6, 2020 11:29am
Like in any field, you find people who've done it - historically - and you follow in their footsteps. As you get proficient, you might be able to improve on your predecessors.

Everything that needs to be discovered has been discovered, but it's not published. It's the way it's always been, though who knows what the future brings. A handful of people have left breadcrumbs to be followed but you need to do the heavy lifting.

You won't invent anything new, and don't waste your time throwing up random indicators hoping to come up with a useful combo; it's not how it works. And ignore anyone who tells you it's the trader not the system; it's a lie perpetuated by the industry to keep thinking you're at fault when it's your fuzzy market logic
  • #8
  • Apr 6, 2020 1:54pm Apr 6, 2020 1:54pm
Quoting triphop
Like in any field, you find people who've done it - historically - and you follow in their footsteps. As you get proficient, you might be able to improve on your predecessors. Everything that needs to be discovered has been discovered, but it's not published. It's the way it's always been, though who knows what the future brings. A handful of people have left breadcrumbs to be followed but you need to do the heavy lifting. You won't invent anything new, and don't waste your time throwing up random indicators hoping to come up with a useful combo;...
That's sound interesting. Any suggestion where to find these bredcrumbs?

In my opinion books would be a good place to start, I've read many of them but they keep repeating the same things over and over without offering valid real life methods.

What's your thoughts about this?
There is no try
  • #9
  • Apr 6, 2020 2:36pm Apr 6, 2020 2:36pm
Quoting dkrock
I have always been an analyst, so I just used the scientific method. Develop an hypothesis, test it, analyze the results, modify the hypothesis. Eventually you create a strategy. I learned very quickly that most people follow the bank-touted strategy of just connecting highs and lows and trading the magical lines they create, LOL. It was easy to figure out why the banks push that nonsense so hard...so they know where traders will enter/exit and place their stops. So, obviously, with no inherent mathematical probability, multiple lines to choose...
Thank's for your insights.

With "vertical movement" you mean that in your opinion trendlines must be ignored in favor of S/R ?
There is no try
  • #10
  • Apr 6, 2020 3:05pm Apr 6, 2020 3:05pm
I have a joke. I once was talking to one of my mates in which the topic was: taking the casino’s money. it has to do with optimums and strategy. I ask this man, what’s the best way to make money from a casino? He gives me a bunch of information about card counting. The 1% edge and remembering trivial shit, like what was played and what goes unscathed. Kelly criterion crap, when to split. Whatever. I look at him and I say, damn they really got you by the balls with that information? The optimal strategy for real gains is showing up with a ski mask and pointing a gun at the fellow workers. That’s huge percentages in probably less than an hours time.
sometimes being too safe can be a waste of time without you knowing. Of course any edge is cool. But saving your time is nice too. There’s really no optimal and efficient way. You could always make something slightly better if you have the brain. Im not saying be stupid about it either. But things are possible when you look out after yourself and have certain professional qualities. Anything is. I also am not saying to be a thief. I’m simply stating that sometimes you can be too full of yourself and what you consider enough may not be considered a lot by someone else.
Inserted Video
  • #11
  • Apr 6, 2020 3:36pm Apr 6, 2020 3:36pm
Quoting Swisse
I have a joke. I once was talking to one of my mates in which the topic was: taking the casino’s money. it has to do with optimums and strategy. I ask this man, what’s the best way to make money from a casino? He gives me a bunch of information about card counting. The 1% edge and remembering trivial shit, like what was played and what goes unscathed. Kelly criterion crap, when to split. Whatever. I look at him and I say, damn they really got you by the balls with that information? The optimal strategy for real gains is showing up with a ski mask...
Super thumbs up for the video. Love all of those movies and twenty minutes of my life was well spent.
Empty your mind and let the market guide you
  • #12
  • Apr 6, 2020 7:21pm Apr 6, 2020 7:21pm
Market is complex.
There are thousands of strategies.
Based on simple ideas.
Simple ideas don't work in a complex market.
It's an obvious mismatch.
If simple ideas work we will all be rich.

If you believe simple ideas work, make your money.
No need for strangers to validate your believe.
No quarrels, no proof required.

You prove to yourself that these simple ideas don't work.
Junk every idea found in the public domain. They are all simple.
That's the first step.
If you reach this state you realise it's extremely difficult to find one idea that has a positive edge.

You are left with two choices.
Market is random, or
You are just not creative, innovative and smart enough to find this one idea that generates alpha.
You are on your own at this point.

You need more than passion, creativity, commitment and hard work. You need luck.
Know what you trade
  • #13
  • Apr 7, 2020 1:49am Apr 7, 2020 1:49am
Quoting BWilliam
Market is complex. There are thousands of strategies. Based on simple ideas. Simple ideas don't work in a complex market. It's an obvious mismatch. If simple ideas work we will all be rich. If you believe simple ideas work, make your money. No need for strangers to validate your believe. No quarrels, no proof required. You prove to yourself that these simple ideas don't work. Junk every idea found in the public domain. They are all simple. That's the first step. If you reach this state you realise it's extremely difficult to find one idea that has...
I heard a lot of people on this forum that the key to successful trading is to keep it simple. I don't believe in luck, everybody creates his own luck
There is no try
  • #14
  • Edited 3:26am Apr 7, 2020 3:05am | Edited 3:26am
Simple it is and old school.
People look down on this because do not want to spend time and effort to really master it and forever keep on looking for fanciful toys instead.
Only require 3 items.
1. Trend - whether by higher high higher low, trend lines, or moving averages.
2. Support/Resistance - stop and go signs.
3. Oscillator - use divergences to locate slowing of momentum or momentum strength at S/R.

As simple as that and seriously I am not joking.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #15
  • Apr 7, 2020 3:57am Apr 7, 2020 3:57am
Quoting Wise-Jedi
{quote} That's sound interesting. Any suggestion where to find these bredcrumbs? In my opinion books would be a good place to start, I've read many of them but they keep repeating the same things over and over without offering valid real life methods. What's your thoughts about this?
To my mind, the most valuable:
To learn the basics - Dummie's Guides to currency trading. I only mention it because 99% of people here won't even be able to tell you what the cut is, let alone what time it happens.
Then, honma - find your own translations, gann (TTTA, and the 'unpublished' materials' don't pay for it though)
on FF, Fudomyo, Crucialpoint, NunrGuy and FTI.

I've just shortened the curve by several years for you
  • #16
  • Apr 7, 2020 6:56am Apr 7, 2020 6:56am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} I guess I was not clear in my post. I do not trade support/resistance lines because they are fake. They refer to dead trades that no one can enter nor exit anymore. I didn't mention anything about trend lines. Vertical movement refers to the candle that moves price in the opposite direction of the previous direction, with little to no draw down, and with enough distance to beat the spread and provide profit. Any other candle you enter on requires you to guess lucky. If you rely on probability, you typically enter on the correct candle. You...
Thank's for your explanation. Where can I learn more about this?
There is no try
  • #17
  • Jul 13, 2020 3:15am Jul 13, 2020 3:15am
Quoting Wise-Jedi
As title say. From where or how do you catch the main idea in order to build a new strategy? Thought it would be quite interesting hearing various opinions. If this topic has already a thread sorry guys, didn't see it
You can learn new strategies by research and practice.
  • #18
  • Jul 16, 2020 6:09pm Jul 16, 2020 6:09pm
Look back at the trades you wished you'd made. Find the common denominator in them. Try and objectivise them. Test it. etc etc
  • #19
  • Jul 16, 2020 6:15pm Jul 16, 2020 6:15pm
Quoting BWilliam
Market is complex. There are thousands of strategies. Based on simple ideas. Simple ideas don't work in a complex market. It's an obvious mismatch. If simple ideas work we will all be rich. If you believe simple ideas work, make your money. No need for strangers to validate your believe. No quarrels, no proof required. You prove to yourself that these simple ideas don't work. Junk every idea found in the public domain. They are all simple. That's the first step. If you reach this state you realise it's extremely difficult to find one idea that has...

This post above its The text book, perfect definition of how not to think and aproach this activity... This mentality will keep you from making any kind of positive progress

And yes, trading its simple, just requires practice and patience to wait, thats all
  • #20
  • Jul 16, 2020 6:19pm Jul 16, 2020 6:19pm
Quoting Inthebox
Simple it is and old school. People look down on this because do not want to spend time and effort to really master it and forever keep on looking for fanciful toys instead. Only require 3 items. 1. Trend - whether by higher high higher low, trend lines, or moving averages. 2. Support/Resistance - stop and go signs. 3. Oscillator - use divergences to locate slowing of momentum or momentum strength at S/R. As simple as that and seriously I am not joking.
Yep.. add the ability to read the price in order to place trades in the optimal place and then how to handle the trades once they are runing and you are set.. but a normal person "this cant be that simple" haha

Its that simple.. not easy, it requires pratice but simple it is =)
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