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Forex is random

  • #121
  • Apr 2, 2020 1:18am Apr 2, 2020 1:18am
If the markets followed something like a Riemann distribution (yes, I know there's no such thing, pedants, relent for a second) then mathematicians would say they were random, beginners and mathematically 'educated' traders would say they were random, but traders would notice they form (unexplained) spirals and they would trade them.

The truth is probably that markets are 'boundedly random', some type of Brownian motion with Levy flights, in multifractal time, or something like that, but if I could prove it I'd have a Fields medal and be too busy lecturing to trade.
Also, if the markets were truly random they would be a cinch to trade since everything would revolve around clever money management. In fact, lots of gurus claim that's exactly the case and maybe they're right.

I know you can make chart patterns that look like real charts using random data, but has anyone tried making chart patterns using non-random data like weather patterns? Choice theory data? With the right setup I'm sure they'd look similar, the only difference is we have an explanation for their cyclical elements. Actually we have an explanation for the cycles in finance too, but that doesn't make it forecast-able, necessarily. You can't see the important differences from a single chart. The problem is so big it has confounded economists like Cambell and Lo, mathematicians like Mandelbrot, engineers like Shannon (probably) and physicists, though I can't think of one. So either there is nothing to discover or it's very difficult to discover. Either way, only an arrogant fool would choose to lock horns with it which is why there's no point in debating it with them. Al Brooks thinks there is no randomness in the market at all, and for obvious reasons there are no gurus flogging their random walk theories (that I know about - anyone?) but I'm sure traders at the extreme ends of that spectrum can make some kind of go at it even if it's just as survivors of randomness.
  • #122
  • Apr 2, 2020 1:40am Apr 2, 2020 1:40am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Please try that with 10 or 50 pips. You will see that your sample will not repeat itself. Half a pip is just a noise, without ant statistical validity..
How do you identify and determine what is noise?
that is very subjective. regardless of noise or not at some part of the market isn't random.
  • #123
  • Apr 2, 2020 1:54am Apr 2, 2020 1:54am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} We absolutely agree that trading forex or any other markets is the same as going to the casino. Both can be beat. But statistics prove that almost all will lose all of their investment
Indeed we agree. +
  • #124
  • Apr 2, 2020 2:03am Apr 2, 2020 2:03am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Indeed we agree. +

Wrong, look at the broker's statements, 75% lose. Not too far from the number of new Restaurants that go broke.
look face it, if you don´t make money with Forex, it is your own fault.
  • #125
  • Apr 2, 2020 2:09am Apr 2, 2020 2:09am
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} Wrong, look at the broker's statements, 75% lose. Not too far from the number of new Restaurants that go broke. look face it, if you don´t make money with Forex, it is your own fault.
numbers change monthly, they are also based on the monthly performance so likely 95%+ lose over a long period.
  • #126
  • Edited 6:03am Apr 2, 2020 2:35am | Edited 6:03am
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} Wrong, look at the broker's statements, 75% lose. Not too far from the number of new Restaurants that go broke. look face it, if you don´t make money with Forex, it is your own fault.
Retail Forex Brokers are obligated to disclose what the law requires, and what is in their best interest!
In retail forex, after 5 years ~ 100%
Not saying that it's not impossible to make a few pips here and there.
Not viable long term, that is all.
It's a glorified casino.
It's a revolving 76% over a given period
At period 0, the percentage is very low (of course)
At period n+ higher and higher ... towards 100 % loss for the agreggate customer base from time 0 (considering no new accounts during he period)
Brokers will not provide the relevant info because they don't have to.
  • #127
  • Apr 2, 2020 9:07am Apr 2, 2020 9:07am
Quoting Mingary
+
//-----

this is not directed at mingary......

however, if we focus only on his constructive posts that directly focus on forex in general, such as the pro's vs con's or +'s vs -'s, he is probably correct 95% of the time.....

he is without a doubt, incorrect about 5%...... can't hold that against him, i'm consistently wrong roughly 20%......

as far as random goes..... to me, it seems markets are quite random in their manner to get where they are going..... that's not a negative..... that's a positive...... we can use that randomness to our favor.....

the reason why mingary is so often correct has little to do with randomness, brokers, spreads, spikes, bucket shops, no hedge rules, fifo, stop hunts and such...... more often it has to do only with me.....

only when i avoid the truth will mingary be correct......

nobody wants to hear they are greedy..... or fearful..... or inexperienced.... or have a destructive ego..... or have no plan..... or just gambling..... or are a narcissistic sociopath.... or use too small lot size.... even hinting such might get you 'ignored'..... dang, that might make me cry.....

the markets might be random but success is not..... list out areas in need of improvement.... start at the top and handle it......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #128
  • Apr 2, 2020 9:29am Apr 2, 2020 9:29am
Quoting hayseed
..... only when i avoid the truth will mingary be correct...... nobody wants to hear they are greedy..... or fearful..... or inexperienced.... or have a destructive ego..... or have no plan..... or just gambling..... or are a narcissistic sociopath.... or use too small lot size.... even hinting such might get you 'ignored'..... dang, that might make me cry..... the markets might be random but success is not..... list out areas in need of improvement.... start at the top and handle it......h
Years ago when I started I told myself this market is random, no kidding. How can anyone make money from it? Mingary is right, so I listed down everything I don't know in a detail idk list that's very long. One by one seek knowledge and solution, took me many years and countless hours figuring it out. The list of idk is still there.
Know what you trade
  • #129
  • Apr 2, 2020 2:23pm Apr 2, 2020 2:23pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Years ago when I started I told myself this market is random, no kidding. How can anyone make money from it? Mingary is right, so I listed down everything I don't know in a detail idk list that's very long. One by one seek knowledge and solution, took me many years and countless hours figuring it out. The list of idk is still there.
What I have learnt.
You need to learn everything then discard most of it. It's what you don't discard that matters the most.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #130
  • Apr 2, 2020 5:45pm Apr 2, 2020 5:45pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I will be speaking to the SEC today about the "magic recovery fund" But seriously, the fact that you are so aggressive and so much on the defensive, tells me clearly on what side your toast gets buttered .. or "butt hurt" not sure which. Bad pun, I know. I will do better next time.
Nope, you dodged the challenge to your lies. Try again. What do you mean by my IB business. I am aggressively challenging a FF liar. Not being defensive but offensive. You lie and then dodge. All the time. You are a non-stop liar. And don't try to deflect the magical recovery fund with your attempt at humor. It's your claim not mine. You made this big claim to garner support from your followers. So, explain it to everyone. Or shall I go to the other thread to copy your words and then post them here for everyone here to see? You're the big man with all the secrets and answers to forex failures. At least be honest and explain this.

I persist at this because you are the most negative poster I've seen on FF. You lie, you accuse, then dodge responsibility for your lies and false accusations. I continue to accuse you of being a liar and a fraud. I have never asked anyone on FF for money, nor have I ever sought a "following" on FF, for anything. You are a deceitful piece of shit, and whenever our paths cross on FF, I'll be there to get in your face, until you admit that you have lied about me.
  • #131
  • Apr 2, 2020 6:22pm Apr 2, 2020 6:22pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Nope, you dodged the challenge to your lies. Try again. What do you mean by my IB business. I am aggressively challenging a FF liar. Not being defensive but offensive. You lie and then dodge. All the time. You are a non-stop liar. And don't try to deflect the magical recovery fund with your attempt at humor. It's your claim not mine. You made this big claim to garner support from your followers. So, explain it to everyone. Or shall I go to the other thread to copy your words and then post them here for everyone here to see? You're the big...
The only lying fraud and deceitful piece of shit on this thread is you GEfx, Mingary certainly winds you up to the point of madness.I suppose you are a very successful trader just defending his holy ground....yeah right.
  • #132
  • Apr 2, 2020 8:07pm Apr 2, 2020 8:07pm
Forex may be random but I think making money in Forex is very hard and need more hard work to stay in the market.
  • #133
  • Apr 2, 2020 8:49pm Apr 2, 2020 8:49pm
Quoting edge540
{quote} The only lying fraud and deceitful piece of shit on this thread is you GEfx, Mingary certainly winds you up to the point of madness.I suppose you are a very successful trader just defending his holy ground....yeah right.
Fuck you. Point out one lie, one deceit that’s attributable to me. Please find a seat on the sideline and stay the fuck out of this.
  • #134
  • Apr 2, 2020 10:31pm Apr 2, 2020 10:31pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Fuck you. Point out one lie, one deceit that’s attributable to me. Please find a seat on the sideline and stay the fuck out of this.
Angry little person...still living in mum's basement?
  • #135
  • Apr 3, 2020 2:50am Apr 3, 2020 2:50am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} "EITHER THE MARKET IS RANDOM or IT ISNT." The market is random and it must be if it is meant to function correctly. Imagine a market in which the price is always going up. Is that random ? Who is going to sell ? Imagine a market in which the price is always going down. Is that random ? Who is going to buy ? Look at what happened when the market was not random perhaps 4 or 5 times in the last month. It had to be temporarily shutdown. You cannot have certainty in the market or it won't work. Add to this the Law of Averages and a simple Gaussian...
Showing your slip again. Missed the great days of the carry trade did we? Yes the market continued to go up. You clearly don't understand why. You don't understand that forex is zero sum - and yet not prepared to accept you don't know something.
Gone to a better place
  • #136
  • Edited 7:33am Apr 3, 2020 6:46am | Edited 7:33am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Showing your slip again. Missed the great days of the carry trade did we? Yes the market continued to go up. You clearly don't understand why. You don't understand that forex is zero sum - and yet not prepared to accept you don't know something.
Hmmm. Looks to me you are the one who does not get it. Nothing to do with carry trades ..
And no, retail forex is not a zero sum game
It's a negative sum game (less than zero sum game) Eventually ALL the customer funds get eaten up by the transaction cost. The customer funds are transferred as broker revenue usually very quickly.
The only "wealth creation" that takes place in retail forex is for the retail forex broker and for various " shovel peddlers", but I am sure you know this already..
I cannot think of any other industry in which the value added to the customer is worse. You would have to sink even lower, like in the drug cartel business model for example
  • #137
  • Apr 3, 2020 9:40am Apr 3, 2020 9:40am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Hmmm. Looks to me you are the one who does not get it. Nothing to do with carry trades .. And no, retail forex is not a zero sum game It's a negative sum game (less than zero sum game) Eventually ALL the customer funds get eaten up by the transaction cost. The customer funds are transferred as broker revenue usually very quickly. The only "wealth creation" that takes place in retail forex is for the retail forex broker and for various " shovel peddlers", but I am sure you know this already.. I cannot think of any other industry in which...
You don't belong here. You remind me of Nigel Farage who got himself voted into the European Parliament and then proceeded to tell them it was undemocratic, and wrong. He stood there and did it, having been democratically voted in. Unbelievable.

What went wrong? Did you lose all your money?
Gone to a better place
  • #138
  • Edited 10:47pm Apr 3, 2020 11:07am | Edited 10:47pm
Quoting smikester
{quote} You don't belong here. You remind me of Nigel Farage who got himself voted into the European Parliament and then proceeded to tell them it was undemocratic, and wrong. He stood there and did it, having been democratically voted in. Unbelievable. What went wrong? Did you lose all your money?
I do not understand your analogy.

But, yes, I do "belong here". A bit of debunking keeps me motivated.
  • #139
  • Apr 3, 2020 9:57pm Apr 3, 2020 9:57pm
Back to the topic. Has anyone found anything to disprove the fact that markets are random?
When you see it, BET big.
  • #140
  • Apr 3, 2020 10:20pm Apr 3, 2020 10:20pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} So you have now concluded that the forex is not random, there are no patterns to price movement, and sweet spots and consolidation are imaginary. Look at the G$ chart for the last 3 weeks, with an understanding of FAs throughout this period (market reaction to the FA). It is curious to me that anyone who is equipped to be a trader would consider the random question, but also would not clearly see or recognize patterns to trade, levels to target, etc. Trading is different from being a trader.
I rejected the idea of sweet spot before, but I might have been wrong. Looking further in your preposition. Thanks for your contribution
When you see it, BET big.
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