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Forex is random

  • #41
  • Mar 27, 2020 1:04am Mar 27, 2020 1:04am
Quoting strbac
{quote} It seems that you have the wrong definition of trend. Trend is simply a move from point A to point B. 11 heads or tails IS A TREND. As long as there is movement , there are trends. As long as price moves from point A to point B, you can capture some pips during the move.
In case of random moves (no directional bias), you can't. Because there's no way of knowing if the current "trend" will continue. Each new step is, by definition, to a random direction and can be the beginning of a new directional streak to the opposite side.
  • #42
  • Mar 27, 2020 1:16am Mar 27, 2020 1:16am
Pretty easy to prove the market is not random,
using any block chart the chances of a sell or buy block should be roughly 50% at any given moment if the market is random. similar to flipping a coin at any given moment the % of heads or tails would be 50%.
So If I open my chat and use .5 pip blocks the chances of 19 red or white blocks in a row should be super low to be exact it has would have a .00004 % chance of occurring per set of 19 blocks.
Yet I can open my chart and see that this occurred less than 5 mins ago and there's a maximum of 1000 block on my chart
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  • #43
  • Mar 27, 2020 9:54am Mar 27, 2020 9:54am
Just making my argument clear. I dont believe the market is random 100%, but I believe it is close to random. Therefore making it very hard to identify non random behaviors.
  • #44
  • Mar 27, 2020 9:57am Mar 27, 2020 9:57am
And there's yet another one...

All right even IF one would not be able to distinguish forex charts from random walk charts, there's still one important property that is overlooked but definitely makes the market non-random. It's volume, i.e. the succession and time-distribution of single ticks. This is important information that you don't see in a standard graph made up of candlesticks. Even with volume bars enabled, one has to zoom in and analyze the tick density in either price direction and how price responded to it.
  • #45
  • Mar 27, 2020 11:00am Mar 27, 2020 11:00am
i think forex is not random at all.
just look at the correlation motions and the interconnections.
  • #46
  • Mar 27, 2020 11:01am Mar 27, 2020 11:01am
Quoting kennerU
And there's yet another one... All right even IF one would not be able to distinguish forex charts from random walk charts, there's still one important property that is overlooked but definitely makes the market non-random. It's volume, i.e. the succession and time-distribution of single ticks. This is important information that you don't see in a standard graph made up of candlesticks. Even with volume bars enabled, one has to zoom in and analyze the tick density in either price direction and how price responded to it.
Please accept my apologies if I've missed something in your argument here, but I can't see what volume has to do with randomness with occasional Levy Flight. Even with very low volume markets can move a lot!
  • #47
  • Mar 27, 2020 11:06am Mar 27, 2020 11:06am
Quoting tiborf71
i think forex is not random at all. just look at the correlation motions and the interconnections.
Again I'm not sure here what market correlations has to do with random walks and occasional Levy Flight. Then again I may be missing something.....
  • #48
  • Mar 27, 2020 11:18am Mar 27, 2020 11:18am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} Again I'm not sure here what market correlations has to do with random walks and occasional Levy Flight. Then again I may be missing something.....
well i never trade just one pairs.
I only two trade in pairs.
and it's not random.
try to look at things differently.
  • #49
  • Mar 27, 2020 11:26am Mar 27, 2020 11:26am
trading a single pairs may be random, but trading multiple pairs is no longer a random move.
  • #50
  • Mar 27, 2020 1:13pm Mar 27, 2020 1:13pm
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} well i never trade just one pairs. I only two trade in pairs. and it's not random. try to look at things differently.
I have been trading a very long time and have come to my conclusion over many many years of study and I think we'll just have to agree to disagree
  • #51
  • Mar 27, 2020 1:32pm Mar 27, 2020 1:32pm
Quoting tiborf71
i think forex is not random at all. just look at the correlation motions and the interconnections.
No, that's just the US dollar pulling its weight at other currencies since it is the most traded currency. Even cross pairs are directly influenced by the US dollar. It has nothing to do with randomness.
  • #52
  • Mar 27, 2020 1:45pm Mar 27, 2020 1:45pm
Forex is not random - everything is predictable 100% not only in forex but in life but we do not have perception to see thru it unless developed.
  • #53
  • Mar 27, 2020 1:47pm Mar 27, 2020 1:47pm
Quoting kodakwhite
Forex is not random - everything is predictable 100% not only in forex but in life but we do not have perception to see thru it unless developed.
But if we do not have the perception as you call it, it is totally random to us. I fail to see the difference.
  • #54
  • Mar 27, 2020 2:42pm Mar 27, 2020 2:42pm
Quoting Rennaissance
After extended testing I conclude that the market is not random. When you run the random chart generator for long enough, you realize that the price converges to the initial price whereas in real life the fluctuations are much wider than a random walk will suggest. However I also conclusively found that there are no patterns of price movement. Sweet spot, consolidation exist only for those who believe in them. But it shows conclusively the existence of wider movements in the real data than the randomly generated one.
So you have now concluded that the forex is not random, there are no patterns to price movement, and sweet spots and consolidation are imaginary. Look at the G$ chart for the last 3 weeks, with an understanding of FAs throughout this period (market reaction to the FA). It is curious to me that anyone who is equipped to be a trader would consider the random question, but also would not clearly see or recognize patterns to trade, levels to target, etc.

Trading is different from being a trader.
  • #55
  • Mar 27, 2020 6:10pm Mar 27, 2020 6:10pm
Quoting raklian
But if we do not have the perception as you call it, it is totally random to us. I fail to see the difference.
Correct, it is indeed random to most traders. The extent how random it is to the trader depends on his knowledge.

Most traders are guessing. When they get it right with profits to show they think the market is not random.

Such guessing success is not alpha or Edge over the market.
Know what you trade
  • #56
  • Mar 27, 2020 7:16pm Mar 27, 2020 7:16pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Correct, it is indeed random to most traders. The extent how random it is to the trader depends on his knowledge. Most traders are guessing. When they get it right with profits to show they think the market is not random. Such guessing success is not alpha or Edge over the market.
Right, it's like watching your first baseball game as a kid. (totally random)

Then watching it as an adult, you sort of touch on the bases, but you're still not good enough.

But then you take the perception from an MLB pro with a .350 batting average to see and formulate it on a document, and like magic, all of a sudden it's not so random now, is it?
Trading is a niche, like every other niche, certain wisdom and information is required to excel against the counter parties.
And such information costs a professional trader, like the MLB player, life altering and daring experiences, gratitude, and some love for the game.
And even in the pro circuit, you'll have people in a bell curve, where the upper echelon takes all of the reward. So even if you were to make it pro, how deep are you going? Because to gain asymmetrical advantages takes information, and when most of the world runs out of it for you, you're going to have to rely on yourself to innovate. To bet everything on yourself, to carry other people's burden and take social responsibility requires a certain type of character. But when you have the timeless wisdom, you can actually apply it to anything and be good at it. That's just the general rule. People confuse it as trading skill. But the reality is your skilled in any interaction involving anything. You don't have to trade to form a good brain in understanding. You could of spent 10 years looking for wisdom outside of trading, and come back to solve all of your trading problems quickly because at the end of the day, it's always just who controls space.
  • #57
  • Mar 27, 2020 7:41pm Mar 27, 2020 7:41pm
Quoting Swisse
{quote} Right, it's like watching your first baseball game as a kid. (totally random) Then watching it as an adult, you sort of touch on the bases, but you're still not good enough. But then you take the perception from an MLB pro with a .350 batting average to see and formulate it on a document, and like magic, all of a sudden it's not so random now, is it? Trading is a niche, like every other niche, certain wisdom and information is required to excel against the counter parties. And such information costs a professional trader, like the MLB...
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Why is a Raven like a Writing Desk?
  • #58
  • Edited 9:16pm Mar 27, 2020 8:57pm | Edited 9:16pm
Quoting Rennaissance
Just making my argument clear. I dont believe the market is random 100%, but I believe it is close to random. Therefore making it very hard to identify non random behaviors.
The trade is not random. If it were, trading firms would not exist as they would have no edge. Tiny commissions would not cover the expenses and provide huge salaries and bonuses.

The trade is also not predictable for average trader as they cannot move the market.

The trade is manipulated, designed to take money from the proud, drunkards, the uneducated, gamblers, and/or the desperate.

That said, it takes many years and many tears to learn this trade. If you don't enjoy this game and only see it as money, much easier ways to make money. I saw some lady making mid 6 figure income making youtube videos of shopping trips, really.
=====
Edit - Mingary and the rest of the Suicide and Forex crowd will soon show up. They are the spent cartridges, people who took a shot and failed. They never reloaded and took another shot. So now they are cursed, to roam the halls of forexfactory, unable to give up the ghost and spook anyone who hears their moans of despair.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #59
  • Mar 28, 2020 2:42am Mar 28, 2020 2:42am
Quoting Rennaissance
After extended testing I conclude that the market is not random. When you run the random chart generator for long enough, you realize that the price converges to the initial price whereas in real life the fluctuations are much wider than a random walk will suggest. However I also conclusively found that there are no patterns of price movement. Sweet spot, consolidation exist only for those who believe in them. But it shows conclusively the existence of wider movements in the real data than the randomly generated one.
Yes, you are correct the markets are not random and also correct that all price action patterns generally don't offer a edge. Patterns are just shapes our minds see to make sense of these manic movements. I believe the mistake most traders make when trying to make sense of random movement is they are trying to predict where price is moving to next INSTEAD of trading with the knowledge of where it has just being. They should be looking at price mechanics and know how fast a market moves, how far it can move and at what angle it can move. Once you know the limit of movement and understand its code, you will know what trade to enter.
To put it in simple terms, if a car speeds down a one way road - you know where it will move to next and at what speed it will move next because you know its boundary. Price is not random because it has a boundary
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #60
  • Mar 28, 2020 5:38am Mar 28, 2020 5:38am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Yes, you are correct the markets are not random and also correct that all price action patterns generally don't offer a edge. Patterns are just shapes our minds see to make sense of these manic movements.
Patterns are created by measuring buyers against sellers. There is nothing magical about it. It is not an illusion in our mind, lol. It is no different than measuring the height of everyone in your city, getting the average, and determining who is over/under the average. The measurement of buyers and sellers creates predictable price cycles that are easily traded.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
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