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  • #1,165,301
  • Mar 28, 2020 2:03pm Mar 28, 2020 2:03pm
Italy



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https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronav..._marzo_eng.pdf
  • #1,165,302
  • Mar 28, 2020 2:15pm Mar 28, 2020 2:15pm
Quoting kuroro001
Analysing the CHF, its like its going to fall (so USDCHF to rise). It doesn't reassure me to long EUR anymore (especially when dealers are still short like hell). Could be a tough week ahead
maybe gap up EURUSD and trend change next week, we`ll see
  • #1,165,303
  • Mar 28, 2020 2:35pm Mar 28, 2020 2:35pm
Quoting DavidSling
{quote} Thanks,pls I can't find this HMA,any link?
I don't have a link. It is Hull Moving Average, somewhat different from SMA. Not all trading platforms have it. I'm at Apiary fund, where I use it.
  • #1,165,304
  • Mar 28, 2020 3:56pm Mar 28, 2020 3:56pm
Quoting F.g
{quote} Sat. 28/3 I don't mean it won't go higher...... It certainly can....1.12 and 1.12 40 are possible. , BUT I want to establish short positions in this area. The move has all the characteristics of excess . The European fundamentals do NOT support such an euphoria...[another ancient Greek word , crew...] Have a safe weekend guys. And especially my Indian friends...avoid being shot..........Stay home [as we do...]
took short at 1130. I also think it can go down with similar motivations as you, but also some political reasons. Last weeks close was very interesting on the dow. In the last minutes all other currencies basically started to fall, expect eur usd.

We also saw some massive buying on DOW until the last 30min, when a massive sale was started. Hence, if the market falls next week, i expect again to se USD little stronger for a short time. The massive buying into DOW to me was a nice bulltrap for month of April i anticipate..

Europe has just started its mess, and USA have not even got the corona shock. The euro zone will take a massive hit i belive due to corona and this rather "crazy" quarantine plan. "Crazy" as we say stay home, but really we could be home for years, and one dont by default get immune towards a flu, and real vaccine have never existed 100%... Also the corona has shown a very interesting thing, that is that the EURO zone is not of interest to help each-other out. For example we seen internal market close down between countries of essential supplies, in fear of resources market has been stop and item and goods also. We also se how Germany, is trying to kill the efforts of bond buying of the Euro zone and any stimulus package that the poorer countries so much needed before, and even more need now. This shows that the euro zone really is not so strong, i think there will be a large discussion after this mess has cleared out, think that UK was the first country out, for sure not the last.

Hence it is ironic that the help to Italy last weeks mainly have come form Russia and China directly...
  • #1,165,305
  • Mar 28, 2020 6:28pm Mar 28, 2020 6:28pm
Looking at COT reports, bulls are in favor according to non-commercial numbers.

I closed my shorts positions. My mistake, I rushed in too quickly. Loss -$315.37.
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  • #1,165,306
  • Mar 28, 2020 6:47pm Mar 28, 2020 6:47pm
Quoting Techanalyst
Looking at COT reports, bulls are in favor according to non-commercial numbers. I closed my shorts positions. My mistake, I rushed in too quickly. Loss -$315.37. {image} {image} {image}

keep in mind just that the cot report shows Tuesday's positions. So 3 more days of long market has passed. Hence fur sure long was correct in tuesday, but the market has gained alot in 3 days and in this volatile times that could have changed. Anyhow, short or not, i belive in Vikinsas analys, that veru good points out that we should anticipate a small pullback at this level anyhow, compared to rhe daily candela in March. Up or down after that, i am sure will depend on the DOW and stock market. I hope you recognize that the stock market has been the drive in forex market the last weeks, zero with fundamentals...

if we just follow todays news, a possible total lockdown of New York i take a guess that the stock market will not like that. Hence if Trump expands on this thought tomorrow, I expect some panic on the markets again next week...

Quoting vikinsa
EURUSD may start to go down in last few days of this month just to create a bear candle. So I'd be careful with my long position. I am bullish on eurusd longer term. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgtTqzkMTRU
really liked this weeks analysis. I know you are a technical trader, but how do you see the confluence in the forex market these last two-three weeks in relation to the US stock market?
  • #1,165,307
  • Mar 28, 2020 6:51pm Mar 28, 2020 6:51pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} keep in mind just that the cot report shows Tuesday's positions. So 3 more days of long market has passed. Hence fur sure long was correct in tuesday, but the market has gained alot in 3 days and in this volatile times that could have changed. Anyhow, short or not, i belive in Vikinsas analys, that veru good points out that we should anticipate a small pullback at this level anyhow, compared to rhe daily candela in March. Up or down after that, i am sure will depend on the DOW and stock market. I hope you recognize that the stock market...
Ever since covid-19, fundamental news has been running all markets. Nothing else. But looking at the compared markets, I do see what you mean. Although that was all due to fundamental news. In this case it wasn't stock pushing currencies. But that does happen, I understand what you mean.
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  • #1,165,308
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:03pm Mar 28, 2020 10:03pm
on Monday feel free to short eu to your hearts content

who can tell me the non technical reason why
  • #1,165,309
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:06pm Mar 28, 2020 10:06pm
rsi is overbought and elliot wave h4 go down.
  • #1,165,310
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:52pm Mar 28, 2020 10:52pm
Quoting PatienceFx
on Monday feel free to short eu to your hearts content who can tell me the non technical reason why
No news on Monday.
  • #1,165,311
  • Mar 28, 2020 11:05pm Mar 28, 2020 11:05pm
Quoting PatienceFx
on Monday feel free to short eu to your hearts content who can tell me the non technical reason why
Do tell!
  • #1,165,312
  • Mar 29, 2020 12:42am Mar 29, 2020 12:42am
Quoting PatienceFx
on Monday feel free to short eu to your hearts content who can tell me the non technical reason why

  1. covid cases in usa highest in the world
  2. dow crash imminent despite QE
  3. keep counting reasons

  • #1,165,313
  • Mar 29, 2020 1:23am Mar 29, 2020 1:23am
Quoting krst8
{quote} really liked this weeks analysis. I know you are a technical trader, but how do you see the confluence in the forex market these last two-three weeks in relation to the US stock market?
I will prepare a study and get back to you
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #1,165,314
  • Mar 29, 2020 2:12am Mar 29, 2020 2:12am
Quoting juhanimi
we should have panic every year
Ya I guess that is why the health systems globally will continue to be in panic mode for ventilators and other health items.

I wonder why that hasn't happened every year?

Understanding numbers here and ratio's seems to make it clearer for some of us at least.

But here go and find out how many people get influenza a year in the US. How many. Not how many die. Then find out what % are dying from Covid19. Look also at the demographics of the US population. How many people are over the age of 60? What is the percent who die when over the age of 60 with covid19?

Then you might get a view of this panic you think should exist annually
  • #1,165,315
  • Mar 29, 2020 2:33am Mar 29, 2020 2:33am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} covid cases in usa highest in the world dow crash imminent despite QE keep counting reasons
Just natural selection at work. Under 70, no lifestyle diseases? Relax.
  • #1,165,316
  • Mar 29, 2020 2:43am Mar 29, 2020 2:43am
Italy

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  • #1,165,317
  • Mar 29, 2020 2:55am Mar 29, 2020 2:55am
Italy

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Like I said earlier, it was not so long time ago, when it was normal that old and sick people dies.
Now it is not normal.
  • #1,165,318
  • Mar 29, 2020 2:57am Mar 29, 2020 2:57am
Quoting juhanimi
We estimated an average of 389 000 (uncertainty range 294 000-518 000) respiratory deaths were associated with influenza globally each year during the study period https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
Here is what is really happening and been happening for a couple months now.

Not sure exactly what this has to do with EURUSD but I am simply stating, with logical assumptions, that what you are suggesting simply has no logic.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6
  • #1,165,319
  • Mar 29, 2020 3:16am Mar 29, 2020 3:16am
Quoting enarco
{quote} Here is what is really happening and been happening for a couple months now.
In Italy average age of deaths is 79.5. and over 50% had 3 or more other diseases.
I understand, we have a good reason to have panic.
I am happy if I live to 79.5 years old.

Anyways, those are facts. Maybe it is not so important.
  • #1,165,320
  • Edited 4:07am Mar 29, 2020 3:37am | Edited 4:07am
Quoting DavidSling
{quote} Thanks,pls I can't find this HMA,any link?
https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/36549
yes yes yes
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