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Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

  • #661
  • Mar 24, 2020 5:04pm Mar 24, 2020 5:04pm
Let's take a look at DXY (US Dollar Index).

DXY must always be considered before any trading decision with the majors as its levels and direction has the greatest impact.

The US Dollar is now losing momentum.

If the red line is broken cleanly then we can expect USD to start trending downward to the key levels as shown.

You get paid for being patient. You get paid for trading against the herd. You get paid for trading with the flow.
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  • #662
  • Mar 24, 2020 11:11pm Mar 24, 2020 11:11pm
USDCAD is still in scope.

This is what I'm looking for.
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  • #663
  • Edited 5:18pm Mar 25, 2020 5:04pm | Edited 5:18pm
Here is a road map of key targets for USDCAD.

The move is headed south as anticipated. I got in two positions around entry level.

I gave you the exact road map earlier on what to look for with this trade. If you followed it, you won big.

This can be traded ALL the way down.

1. Enter at key points.
2. Use sentiment to confirm herd direction is opposite the move. (that retail long positioning is INCREASING)
3. Make lots of pips.
4. Thank me later.

Trade Safe-
Charles

P.S. if price pulls back to 1.42920 then you have an opportunity to get in short.
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  • #664
  • Mar 26, 2020 7:55am Mar 26, 2020 7:55am
USDCAD MM's grabbed stops. First Target Taken.
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  • #665
  • Mar 26, 2020 10:55am Mar 26, 2020 10:55am
If you believe the markets aren't manipulated.... or that you can't "predict" price movements BEFORE they happen....

Ask yourself, what am I currently missing from my trading methodology? What is stopping me from being consistently profitable?

If you want trade bias direction, you need Sentiment and Market Structure. Add that to your current trading system and watch your trading (and PROFIT) change for the better.

USDCAD, Second Target hit.

Cha-ching.
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  • #666
  • Mar 26, 2020 11:36am Mar 26, 2020 11:36am
Was there a clue to the Market Maker Manipulation BEFORE they moved price down?

Notice how price moved down (A).

But most importantly, I want you to look at the Sentiment Indicator (second from bottom), it shows that SHORTS are decreasing from extreme positions (B).

This is what I refer to as Sentiment CHANGING - which is the most important for reversals or catching TOPS and BOTTOMS.

You also notice the Relative Sentiment Indicator (bottom indicator) shows that LONGS are increasing since the beginning of the week dramatically (C). This means that even though sentiment was showing short extremes (but shifting less short), retail is starting to ADD LONG.

Well, we all know retail loses overall.

This is how I trade week after week. I show trades in advance BEFORE they happen. This is my crystal ball.

This is the biggest edge in Forex.

Hope this helps,
Charles

P.S. Notice how price filled the liquidity gap at (G).

Sentiment Analysis MT4 indicator - More info - https://sentifx.com/sentiment-indicator/

Relative Sentiment MT4 indicator - More info - https://sentifx.com/relative-sentiment-indicator/
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  • #667
  • Mar 26, 2020 8:32pm Mar 26, 2020 8:32pm
DXY following the plan.

I shared this as the strongest and most likely outcome a few days ago.

Price broke cleanly, retested as expected, and then continued.

If you haven't made money after this - you're simply not following the most likely plan.

If there is no value in me posting any of these concepts and trade ideas (IN ADVANCE)... that work out more often than not .... then I can stop posting.

Let me know if you are finding value.
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  • #668
  • Mar 27, 2020 2:01pm Mar 27, 2020 2:01pm
Witness the beauty.
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  • #669
  • Mar 27, 2020 5:35pm Mar 27, 2020 5:35pm
Quoting SentiFX
DXY following the plan. I shared this as the strongest and most likely outcome a few days ago. Price broke cleanly, retested as expected, and then continued. If you haven't made money after this - you're simply not following the most likely plan. If there is no value in me posting any of these concepts and trade ideas (IN ADVANCE)... that work out more often than not .... then I can stop posting. Let me know if you are finding value. {image}
I have been following and find value in your tools however more information on relative sentiment will be helpful? e.g Does it work on particular timeframe basis? Also how can one discuss more with you?
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #670
  • Mar 31, 2020 9:25am Mar 31, 2020 9:25am
Quoting skyf
{quote}I have been following and find value in your tools however more information on relative sentiment will be helpful? e.g Does it work on particular timeframe basis? Also how can one discuss more with you?
skyf, sorry just seeing this. I didn't get any notifications and haven't checked back.

Relative Sentiment serves two major purposes:

1. Relative Sentiment confirms that retail is going opposite the direction you WANT to go in. I.e. Retail starts adding more and more LONG positions and you are looking to short a pair. This is great confirmation that price will likely take out the retail herd stops and not yours.

2. Relative Sentiment is excellent at catching reversals. You wait for regular Sentiment to be at extremes (say retail is extremely SHORT for a week or two) and then look for retail starting to increase their LONGS instead of short. This means that retail is probably stopped out by now or given up and has switched sides. Then if you want one more additional confirmation, just way for price to make a lower low when retail are shifting long and then you have the exact entry area near the top.

If any of that is confusing - I will make a video soon to go over it.

If you need to reach me you can email charles @ sentifx.com
  • #671
  • Mar 31, 2020 9:27am Mar 31, 2020 9:27am
Trading is easy with the right tools and understanding.

But price can't be predicted they say......
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  • #672
  • Apr 2, 2020 10:13am Apr 2, 2020 10:13am
Grab and Go Right from the MM Playbook.

But it didn't stop myself and others in the group grab points on AU's next swing down.

Sentiment guided our decisions to know which side of the market we should be looking at.

Sentiment wasn't at an extreme - it was a shift. A changing of the guard... which is one of the 6 sentiment signals we use.

Well done.
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  • #673
  • Apr 3, 2020 3:59pm Apr 3, 2020 3:59pm
Aim to Long the USD next week. Another great trading week at SentiFX.

Having a crystal ball is the fastest way to grow the trading account. As always, use Sentiment and Market Structure to guide your decisions.

Look for pairs where Sentiment is in Extreme SHORT the USD territory and look to go long.

Have a great weekend.

Stay safe,

Charles
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  • #674
  • Apr 4, 2020 6:48pm Apr 4, 2020 6:48pm
Remember: The Greatest Opportunity you have is being a Trader.

Much of the world is struggling with a mix of Corona Virus and the faltering economies.

Many businesses have shut down... they can't afford to pay their employees. People have lost jobs..... and don't know how they will survive.

If you've fallen into any of the above and you're here as a trader... although it may seem gloom and doom... keep this in mind:

You have an opportunity to achieve your dream of trading full time.

This is your time. Make it count. Change Your Future. Take control of your destiny.

I believe in you.
  • #675
  • Apr 4, 2020 10:49pm Apr 4, 2020 10:49pm
Quoting SentiFX
Grab and Go Right from the MM Playbook. But it didn't stop myself and others in the group grab points on AU's next swing down. Sentiment guided our decisions to know which side of the market we should be looking at. Sentiment wasn't at an extreme - it was a shift. A changing of the guard... which is one of the 6 sentiment signals we use. Well done. {image} {image} {image}
interesting
There is lots of blue in the relative sentiment yet price kept moving up instead of down as expected.
Do you still use the bubbles indicator?
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #676
  • Apr 5, 2020 10:09am Apr 5, 2020 10:09am
Quoting skyf
{quote} interesting There is lots of blue in the relative sentiment yet price kept moving up instead of down as expected. Do you still use the bubbles indicator?
If you notice, the blue in relative sentiment was Retail Starting to ADD LONG after SHORTING for an extended period of time.

This is the reoccurring pattern. Retail decides to shift sides after they give up on fighting the original direction. Then there was a Market Structure change (lower low) and that was the opportunity to strike upon pull back.

So put simply, here was the pattern:

1. Retail Extreme SHORT for an extended period of time.
2. Retail gets stopped and gives up shorting... starts going long ( clear in relative sentiment ).
3. MM's push price lower taking Retail Stops Again
4. Retail Continues to ADD Long.
5. MM's continue to push down and take stops until retail starts shorting.

Rinse and Repeat.
  • #677
  • Apr 5, 2020 12:02pm Apr 5, 2020 12:02pm
"Do you still use the bubbles indicator?"


Yes of course, the bubble indicator is a great way to do basket analysis that wouldn't be possible otherwise.

For instance, can easily see if USD is overall a BUY or SELL based on sentiment.

Can also compare other baskets like JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF, NZD.

This lets me see the positioning of retail in favor or against a currency across all other currencies.

Plus the seasonality analysis in the tool is extremely useful to have a quantitative view of what happens more often than not per month. For instance, this month and next are my all time favorite seasonal patterns as it's the easiest money in the game.
  • #678
  • Apr 8, 2020 9:31am Apr 8, 2020 9:31am
Sharing Valuable Info about EU Long Trade


See images below.

EU Long lots of confluence with sentiment and market structure. Easy trade.

It's nice to go to sleep with resting orders at key locations and wake up in profit. You can do this too.

Hope you enjoy and learn from the content.

Trade safe -

Charles
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  • #679
  • Apr 8, 2020 11:28am Apr 8, 2020 11:28am
EU Hanging on by a thread

Worse case scenario is second position gets stopped at +8 x 5 for +40 pts. Best case +135 x 5 = +675.

No pressure since already closed the first part at +150 and this one is just bonus.

If this gets stopped, I'll show you the game plan going forward.
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  • #680
  • Apr 9, 2020 9:34am Apr 9, 2020 9:34am
EU Stops Taken - Poor Retail trying to Short
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