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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #82,381
  • Mar 12, 2020 1:36pm Mar 12, 2020 1:36pm
Any idea why stock indices were hammered down but usdjpy failed to give jpy the bid. Instead the usd strengthened?
  • #82,382
  • Mar 12, 2020 1:40pm Mar 12, 2020 1:40pm
Quoting fahad516
Any idea why stock indices were hammered down but usdjpy failed to give jpy the bid. Instead the usd strengthened?
BOJ intervention. It seems they pegged it at 105.
  • #82,383
  • Mar 13, 2020 4:10am Mar 13, 2020 4:10am
UJ targeting 107 to 108 area now and it will be the best area to short

to target 100.60 or perhaps less to 98
  • #82,384
  • Mar 13, 2020 4:30am Mar 13, 2020 4:30am
It would appear that if the weekly Pivot gets taken out those calls for 107 are more real. But to be short here now is fighting it.

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  • #82,385
  • Mar 13, 2020 6:13am Mar 13, 2020 6:13am
Interesting time for a gap. Looking long after it closes. Possible bear trap.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,386
  • Mar 13, 2020 6:19am Mar 13, 2020 6:19am
Quoting msniper
UJ targeting 107 to 108 area now and it will be the best area to short to target 100.60 or perhaps less to 98
I have my target @108.50. I'm going to sell at that price. Wish me luck.
  • #82,387
  • Mar 13, 2020 6:23am Mar 13, 2020 6:23am
I am thinking its all just following the regular market cycle. We have gone through a complete rout. BUT, its not done. We go for a while here maybe days, maybe a week and then we get hit with more real data that says...yep you are fkd. The US Fed has their rate decision coming which will basically do little for consumption. China is working on a plan to get consumption going and that is what it will be in the US as well. for the EURO zone what can they do to get consumption going. They have been working on that for 10 years and nothing has happened. But I digress.

This is not going back to 110 that is for sure. Or in my humble opinion. We get a few days of reprieve the BOJ gets to shoot some bullets and then it rolls over to 100...again or lower.

Or miraculously the powers that be put a plan together that is simply...miraculous and carry's us out of this all straight on.

That is how I see it. We are a way away from the V bottom. But nothing wrong with going long here just be ready for things to roll over again at some point. Or miracles happen.
  • #82,388
  • Mar 13, 2020 7:00pm Mar 13, 2020 7:00pm
Comparing to prior market turmoils. Volatility will keep on rolling here. We are going to be ok....We are all going to die....we will throw money at the problem....its not enough money....the data is looking good....the data comes out bad.

Here is where USDJPY was this week and then where the USDJPY was in 2008. Not that its going to go to the same levels but I believe it will take the same form. Volatility and trend down. New cases of Covid19 are over 10,000 today and the highest since Feb. Huge spike up and its off an running now.

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  • #82,389
  • Mar 13, 2020 10:24pm Mar 13, 2020 10:24pm
Quoting markofrose
{quote} I have my target @108.50. I'm going to sell at that price. Wish me luck.
TP hit. Now looking for bear signal.
  • #82,390
  • Mar 14, 2020 12:21pm Mar 14, 2020 12:21pm
Quoting enarco
Comparing to prior market turmoils. Volatility will keep on rolling here. We are going to be ok....We are all going to die....we will throw money at the problem....its not enough money....the data is looking good....the data comes out bad. Here is where USDJPY was this week and then where the USDJPY was in 2008. Not that its going to go to the same levels but I believe it will take the same form. Volatility and trend down. New cases of Covid19 are over 10,000 today and the highest since Feb. Huge spike up and its off an running now. {image} {image}...
Good job with the comparison chart from 2008-09. The only problem that I see is that every trader wants to short here, including myself, everyone on tradingview has short trade suggestion for USDJPY at the current levels. That's kinda worrisome if everyone thinks the same.
  • #82,391
  • Mar 14, 2020 7:58pm Mar 14, 2020 7:58pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Good job with the comparison chart from 2008-09. The only problem that I see is that every trader wants to short here, including myself, everyone on tradingview has short trade suggestion for USDJPY at the current levels. That's kinda worrisome if everyone thinks the same.
Its just going to be the psychology of this. We have these recoveries in the USDJPY and then we get more data and negativity in the market and we go lower. I agree with contrarian trading at times. The NZD and AUD were heavily long for a couple weeks and they still kept dropping. Many simply traded the AUDUSD because it had not been that low since 2008. A trend does not care about math or history depending on what is going on.

But the market psychology will remain. USDJPY can go up from here but my guess would be consolidate sideways for a while and then start the decline once again with the continued negative news entering the market. Or extreme volatility battling the BOJ and market forces on the JPY. Europe is blowing up with Covid19.

USDJPY ought to roll over again as the numbers for covid19 keep rising and the only way out for countries is to shut down or deal with a health crisis and lack of supplies/equipment to deal with the numbers that will come their way. The macro data is going to unfavorable for some time to come. The trend ought to remain down but the charts will tell the story either way and trade accordingly. I simply think the psychology will lean towards a continued down trend.
  • #82,392
  • Mar 15, 2020 4:07pm Mar 15, 2020 4:07pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Good job with the comparison chart from 2008-09. The only problem that I see is that every trader wants to short here, including myself, everyone on tradingview has short trade suggestion for USDJPY at the current levels. That's kinda worrisome if everyone thinks the same.

if this is the case, looking for it to shoot up fast, then reverse course.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,393
  • Mar 16, 2020 3:19am Mar 16, 2020 3:19am
Quoting markofrose
{quote} TP hit. Now looking for bear signal.
There's a gap on the opening day. I'm buying instead, at least until the gap closed.
  • #82,394
  • Mar 16, 2020 4:16am Mar 16, 2020 4:16am
by the time I took a screenshot we are already down 50 pips 50 more to go USDJPY


Trade well
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Precise Execution!
  • #82,395
  • Mar 16, 2020 8:31am Mar 16, 2020 8:31am
Quoting varun76
by the time I took a screenshot we are already down 50 pips 50 more to go USDJPY Trade well {image}

Precise Execution!
  • #82,396
  • Mar 16, 2020 8:40am Mar 16, 2020 8:40am
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https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post12815820
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Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #82,397
  • Mar 16, 2020 9:16am Mar 16, 2020 9:16am
whoops a bit late to post
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  • #82,398
  • Mar 16, 2020 4:58pm Mar 16, 2020 4:58pm
Quoting Amir_Forex
. . . . . https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post12815820 . . . . .
Hi Amir,

when you post something sentiment from two weeks ago is still visible at the bottom (although it is not active on your profile) of your post. Someone could misinterpret it....
  • #82,399
  • Mar 17, 2020 2:07pm Mar 17, 2020 2:07pm
Quoting markofrose
{quote} There's a gap on the opening day. I'm buying instead, at least until the gap closed.
Mission accomplished. Now selling.
  • #82,400
  • Mar 17, 2020 2:47pm Mar 17, 2020 2:47pm
Quoting markofrose
{quote} Mission accomplished. Now selling.

I do love gaps.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
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