Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

In the meantime - scalped 21 pips to the downside.

Looking for more opportunity to go short.

Short opportunities if UJ returns to this area - mid of profile to top of Liquidity Gap (LG) fill.

UJ falling like a rock.

UJ hitting 365 pip range.

Goes to show, you just have to know which side to be on (SHORT) since retail is heavily long and headline risk and orderflow is sell side.

But you don't know how far the market will actually go (NO ONE DOES).

Trying to go long anytime in this move will get your account destroyed.

Just grabbed another 90 PIPs shorting UJ.

Done for the day. Sentiment and Orderflow is King!

Today definitely isnt the turning point to go long and that was clear early in the trading session when the profile was building at the bottom before it broke... so took advantage of all the sell side opportunities.

Trade safe today. Lots of volatility.

Be careful with UJ, major stops cleared and retail is starting to go short according to relative sentiment.

In and out scalp (short) +38.4 pips x 5 leverage = +192 pts

.. and Kuroda mentioned currency easing in his speach

Great points Mcquak.

This has actually been a very easy trading week taking advantage of the retail sentiment and sentiment of the market (global fear of coronavirus).

Risk is off, JPY is on!

MMs just tipped their hands to the upside with UJ

Reasons for trade clipped from slack community
EU(Short) +64 pips x 3 leverage = +192

Hola Charles
A question slightly off topic.
I never understood why you multiply for the leverage?
You got TP=25.1
That's men your profit= (lot size) *TP
Correct?

I have an account with ICmarkets where default leverage is 500:1 but that doesn't mean my profit is multiplied by a factor of 500.
I always earn the same with this broker or another that has 30:1 leverage.
Do you get what I mean?
Cheers

Hi Merka, the pip profit on this trade was 64.3, I always put a stop loss and take profit at key areas.. in this case the LG fill. I decided to close once I took retail stops... although it looks like EU is still gunning for the LG fill.

In regards to your question... I trade based on low leverage (usually 5:1 to 10:1). With the volatility this week I lowered it between 1:1 and 3:1.

So if I used 1:1 leverage, I would track the trade in this instance at 64 pts.

2:1 = 128 pts
3:1 = 192 pts etc

Why? It keeps me honest and can evaluate trade results based on over leverage or under leveraged.

Say we have 2 trades, 1 has 10 pip gain, one has 10 pip loss.

If I used 1:1 leverage on both then I should be near break even. However, if I used 1:1 on the winning trade and 50:1 on the losing trade.... even though they are both 10 pips, the loss would be huge compared to the gain.

So by using my scoring method... we would have
Win. 10pips x 1 leverage = 10pts
Loss 10pips x50 leverage = -500pts

So we can clearly see the trading itself was fine (+10 and -10) but our leverage is what killed us.

Does that make sense?

P.s. looks like I left 35 pips or so on the table by closing at stops.

Good day Traders,

I hope you're staying safe out there and trading with edge. Last week was an amazing week for us and we took advantage of the market flow (trading against retail).


Here is a recap of some of the key focus that we had last week in the markets:

https://sentifx.com/share/ff/post/eowa/eowa-15-mar-20/


Here are my results from last week:
UJ (S) 21 x 1 = +21
UJ (s) 90 x 2 = +180
UJ(S) at LG fill = +39 * 5 = +195
AJ (s) 63 x 2 = +126
EU(S) 64 x 3 = +192
AJ (s) -94 × 2 = -184
EU (s) 19 x 2 = +38
AJ(s) -98 × 1 = -98
-------------------------------------
Total = +467 points


I expect volatility to continue this week and have noticed significant fear building in the US over the corona virus in the last few days alone.

Fear = volatility and opportunity. Be ready to grab the opportunity.

Trade safe,

Charles

Last week retail was adding more and more long positions. This could be seen as retail sentiment was becoming less short.... but we also can see the relative sentiment indicator shows retail was steadily getting longer and longer all week.

Relative sentiment is the key for identifying tops and bottoms.

When retail starts giving up the fight (shorting previously) and starts to go long..... that's when the MMs take price the other way as in this example.

These are the patterns that present extremely profitable opportunities in any trading environment.

Bottom line, even now you still have opportunity to trade short side EU. The average positioning is now crossing the balance point at B. Market structure is to the downside. I am looking for short opportunities. Thinking Long is thinking like retail.

EURUSD Market Structure guides the way.

Does anyone have toilet paper for sale?

Thanks to Corona Virus... It seems like Toilet Paper is the new currency.

Want to buy TP/USD, best offer wins.

Is USD topping out? (near 19 year highs!!)

Check out the trade I'm eyeing:

https://sentifx.com/share/ff/post/eowa/eowa-22-mar-20/

USDCAD trade is off - PA is not confirming the move. Let's keep looking for opportunities.

I updated the post to give reasons why I will not take this trade. The price action created Trapped Traders and I am not interested in being one of them.

It's the trapped traders we aim to target and buy/sell where they are getting out. Sometimes we become the trapped traders but with a little patience and directional bias provided by Sentiment... we can many times avoid being one of those trapped retail traders who get stopped regularly.

Going to take a shot at UC long if the order gets filled

Sentiment is still a SELL and price action suggests that price wants to move upward.

The risk to the trade is what was mentioned in previous post. If price trades down like the bottom arrows and pulls back, that is an opportunity for a short and aligned better with the decrease in short positioning.

UC long -30, looks like downside flow is going to play out.