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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #921
  • Mar 9, 2020 4:16pm Mar 9, 2020 4:16pm
Quoting Igrok
a few more interesting charts with projections... {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hi Igrok,
could you post an update graph for Dow Jones andor SP&500 with the diamond?
Thanks
  • #922
  • Mar 9, 2020 6:27pm Mar 9, 2020 6:27pm
If at the very outbreak, you don’t test for covid 19, nor contain its spread, you end up having to lockdown entire communities, states and nations.
Can the same nationwide lockdown that has occurred in Italy also occur in the US!
What effect would such a lockdown have on markets in the months ahead....lower lows or higher highs.
  • #923
  • Mar 9, 2020 6:31pm Mar 9, 2020 6:31pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} I wonder where all those disrespectful aholes are now? Oh well...
Right here big mouth. The end of the US stock market is being greatly exaggerated as it has been in every correction, recession and bear market in US equity history. In the 2008-2009 decline the market was down around 50%. It made it all back in 16 months. I was one of the ones buying when everyone was selling and I have been rewarded much. Guess what I'm doing right now. That's right. Buying.

I think it's rich of you and Igrok to ask where all those who disagreed with the basic tenet of this thread are since you and Igrok very well know where they are...ON IGROK'S IGNORE list. Not gone with the wind because I'm sure they would say something if they hadn't been censored by Igrok.

So put me on your "ignore list" Igrok and that'll be one more rational individual you don't have to face. But don't be fools asking where we are. We're on you "ignore list"... DOH!!!
Freedom is not free
  • #924
  • Mar 9, 2020 7:08pm Mar 9, 2020 7:08pm
Quoting PeterE
Let me say up front: I’m not trying to scare anyone. $VIX 54 shock on Friday says people are already scared. My mantra remains: Keep calm (https://northmantrader.com/2020/03/05/keep-calm/).....What’s the $VIX really saying here? That the Fed and every central bank on the planet are at high risk of losing total control over these markets in which case $VIX could go to 90 and $SPX could ultimate drop to 1800-2000. That’s not hyperbole, that’s what the charts say...link (https://northmantrader.com/2020/03/08/vix-shock/)
What the $VIX says to me when it spikes up like it did today is "Buy a PUT option!"....because the volatility does not like to be high, it is always looking to go lower and likes to hang in the <15 range. So I did get in the following right at the close:

$VIX Mar18 40 PUT @ $2.70

Should make it down to make some spending money on this in the next few days. (I always thought it so cool to be able to make money on an "option to sell" something that doesn't even physically exist!)

But even if the market drops like it has or screams up, the strategy should be to actually HAVE a strategy to make money regardless of what the market does...and that is where options come into play. So like he says. don't be scared, just keep calm..... (and keep trading)......
  • #925
  • Mar 10, 2020 8:52am Mar 10, 2020 8:52am
Out of the following:

$VIX Mar18 40 PUT @ $4.80 up from $2.70

Just stay calm and keep trading......
  • #927
  • Mar 10, 2020 1:54pm Mar 10, 2020 1:54pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} I wonder where all those disrespectful aholes are now? Oh well...
I think I know where ONE is!!…..

Seriously, dude, mother sex comments?!? How old ARE you?.....
  • #928
  • Mar 10, 2020 5:00pm Mar 10, 2020 5:00pm
Quoting Abe16
{quote} Right here big mouth. The end of the US stock market is being greatly exaggerated as it has been in every correction, recession and bear market in US equity history. In the 2008-2009 decline the market was down around 50%. It made it all back in 16 months. I was one of the ones buying when everyone was selling and I have been rewarded much. Guess what I'm doing right now. That's right. Buying. I think it's rich of you and Igrok to ask where all those who disagreed with the basic tenet of this thread are since you and Igrok very well know...
I have no idea what you're actually doing here on the traders' forum... it's because you're not even a trader... yours, as you call it, "rational" strategy is based on the most primitive action called "buy and hold"... it's not even a trading strategy... it's an investment strategy... other that that you know nothing about the markets, unable to understand and utilize neither fundamental nor technical approach to market matters... unable to profit from the opportunities that bear markets always present and so on... just because you got lucky at some point and got away with this approach in 2008-09 doesn't make you some sort of an "expert" in what you're doing here and now... imagine for a second that you were executing the very same martingale like trades back in 1929 when the Dow first lost about 90% of its value and then it took 25 years just to get back to the previous market's top... if to add the inflation to the equation then it would've taken about 30 years just to get back to square one... now let's imagine that I'm right with my analysis and there is indeed something like another GD will actually happen... how would you feel then?... how would feel those who use the very same approach as yours most of whom are likely to die of old age even before they see the prices coming back to break even point?... from my opinion it's not worth it to consider your suggested strategy with any degree of rationality...
  • #929
  • Mar 10, 2020 5:32pm Mar 10, 2020 5:32pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} I have no idea what you're actually doing here on the traders' forum... it's because you're not even a trader... yours, as you call it, "rational" strategy is based on the most primitive action called "buy and hold"... it's not even a trading strategy... it's an investment strategy... other that that you know nothing about the markets, unable to understand and utilize neither fundamental nor technical approach to market matters... unable to profit from the opportunities that bear markets always present and so on... just because you got lucky...
Even you admitted not so long ago that you were viewing your "strategy" in this thread as one having to do with investing. Go back and read your own words. I'm an investor AND a trader and have intimate knowledge of markets fundamental and technical and would go head to head with you any day, especially based on what you've posted here in this thread which is akin to playing the lottery. Your statement "unable to profit from the opportunities that bear markets always present" is a choice I make because bull markets in equity markets such as that of the US Stock Market will always trump any short term bear opportunity...and exponentially so. Talk about luck: I'd rather play the lotto than take a chance on profiting from the end of the US Stock Market. . Dollar-cost-averaging and buy-and-hold investing in equity markets are tried and true strategies that have endured the test of time.

The market in 1929 has little to nothing to do with markets now. I've been trading and investing since 1987 and have been buying/holding and dollar cost averaging into a variety of equity markets since. So I've endured my share of bear markets, recession and corrections. None of those took 25 years to come back.

When trading I buy and sell based on the market. I trade almost solely based on technical factors and do so only when the chart says so. I don't make predictions especially like the one the title of this thread makes.
Freedom is not free
  • #930
  • Mar 10, 2020 5:47pm Mar 10, 2020 5:47pm
Quoting Abe16
{quote} Dollar-cost-averaging and buy-and-hold investing in equity markets are tried and true strategies that have endured the test of time. The market in 1929 has little to nothing to do with markets now. I've been trading and investing since 1987 and have been buying/holding and dollar cost averaging into a variety of equity markets since. So I've endured my share of bear markets, recession and corrections. None of those took 25 years to come back.
yeah... tell the same stuff to the NIKKEI traders and investors... it's been 30 years already since the top was formed at about 40K mark and it's not even in some sort of more or less close proximity yet... my projection is based on current technical picture and only time will tell whether I'm right or not...
  • #931
  • Mar 10, 2020 5:59pm Mar 10, 2020 5:59pm
Jesus Christ, guys talk some sense into yourselves.

Abe - you’re absolutely right buy and hold works.

Igrok - again, congrats you called a bigger drop than most anticipated and you were also right.

Lets use knowledge to benefit one another and not swing dicks.
  • #932
  • Mar 10, 2020 6:35pm Mar 10, 2020 6:35pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} yeah... tell the same stuff to the NIKKEI traders and investors... it's been 30 years already since the top was formed at about 40K mark and it's not even in some sort of more or less close proximity yet... my projection is based on current technical picture and only time will tell whether I'm right or not...
I'll give you that on the NIKKEI but my comments regarding investing refer to US equity markets.
Freedom is not free
  • #933
  • Edited 8:29pm Mar 10, 2020 7:01pm | Edited 8:29pm
Quoting Abe16
{quote} I'll give you that on the NIKKEI but my comments regarding investing refer to US equity markets.
it doesn't matter what you actually refer to... I'm insisting that something similar to what happened back in 1929 in the US or back in 1990 in Japan definitely has a chance to happen once again in any stock market at any moment in any country including the US... as we all know, history repeats itself... that's the point, since we have already seen something similar to what I'm expecting to take place in not so distant future... on my opinion, right now a drop back to at least 18300 mark for DJI is a must and the index has a 100% chance for reaching this level before posting a new historic high (which might never really happen in our lifetime) above the current one located at 29568.57... revisiting some lower levels (also projected by me in this thread) are less likely but the overall probability for that is also quite high... the chance of hitting some sub 2009 lows for the major stock markets' indices from around the world I would estimate as no less than 80%...
  • #934
  • Mar 11, 2020 7:12am Mar 11, 2020 7:12am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} I think I know where ONE is!!….. Seriously, dude, mother sex comments?!? How old ARE you?.....
Old enough to not have to tolerate name calling.

I didn’t call out anyone personally.

Well, if you are willing to buy into a personal fight, be ready.

If you come at me, personally, I’ll come for you.

You sound like that kid that loves to bully people around until you get punched in the face.

Guess what? Don’t want to get punched in the face, leave people alone. Personally.
  • #935
  • Mar 11, 2020 9:02am Mar 11, 2020 9:02am
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} Old enough to not have to tolerate name calling. I didn’t call out anyone personally. Well, if you are willing to buy into a personal fight, be ready. If you come at me, personally, I’ll come for you. You sound like that kid that loves to bully people around until you get punched in the face. Guess what? Don’t want to get punched in the face, leave people alone. Personally.
You were whining about people being disrespectful aholes and then you make an oral sex reference about Abe16's mom and that is okay? In what universe is that not disrespectful? How does that remotely have ANYTHING to do with trading?

And you always threaten people about wanting a fight, you'll give them one. No one wants a fight. No one wants to hear your rude comments. No one wants to bicker back and forth with you. People just want to talk about trading and forex and ideas and systems and stuff that is NORMALLY talked about on a trading forum.

So, take a deep breath, count to ten and lighten up, Francis!
  • #936
  • Edited 9:35am Mar 11, 2020 9:15am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} You were whining about people being disrespectful aholes and then you make an oral sex reference about Abe16's mom and that is okay? In what universe is that not disrespectful? How does that remotely have ANYTHING to do with trading? And you always threaten people about wanting a fight, you'll give them one. No one wants a fight. No one wants to hear your rude comments. No one wants to bicker back and forth with you. People just want to talk about trading and forex and ideas and systems and stuff that is NORMALLY talked about on a trading...
It seems like you have some reading comprehension issues. Or perhaps you are just dumb ir ignorant.

I was very clear in my previous post: I didn’t PERSONALLY call out anyone! He was the one calling out at a personal
level.

Want respect? Respect people first.

Do you happen to understand now or do you need me to draw it for you?

On the other hand, I am not threatening anyone. Besides, anyone can be very tough behind a keyboard. AKA “Keyboard Warriors”. Similarly, “Abe d head” would not have the guts to call me a “big mouth” in person. And if he did, believe me, he would get punched in the face indeed. “Abe d head” is a tough keyboard warrior.

I am just trying to metaphorically explain to you as to not f@ck with anyone at a personal level!

If you fail to understand what a metaphor is, I can suggest looking it up on Google.

Again, please, don’t f@ck with me or anyone at a personal level. Capicce?

Also, please refrain from victimizing yourself. We don’t need your pathetic victimization.

I dare you or “Abe D@ck Mouth” show me a post where I mention your or his individual names out. Now, it seems like you are true a.holes and therefore the cap fits. I can’t do much about that tho...
  • #937
  • Mar 11, 2020 9:23am Mar 11, 2020 9:23am
Time to up your meds, dude.....
  • #938
  • Mar 11, 2020 9:39am Mar 11, 2020 9:39am
Quoting moneymaker2
Time to up your meds, dude.....
Don’t worry. I’ll ring your mom up for those.
  • #939
  • Mar 11, 2020 7:08pm Mar 11, 2020 7:08pm
Quoting PeterE
If at the very outbreak, you don’t test for covid 19, nor contain its spread, you end up having to lockdown entire communities, states and nations. Can the same nationwide lockdown that has occurred in Italy also occur in the US! What effect would such a lockdown have on markets in the months ahead....lower lows or higher highs.
US about 10 days behind the Italy situation according to this projection 5:10 (https://youtu.be/t4N09qsMdPQ?t=310)
....doesnt bode well for citizens or markets
  • #940
  • Edited Mar 12, 2020 3:22am Mar 11, 2020 8:40pm | Edited Mar 12, 2020 3:22am
apparently the situation is changing dramatically and it seems that my technical views have to be reconsidered and adjusted accordingly... the projected diamond on the DJI is now unlikely to emerge... it means that the the overall outlook is even worse than I have expected before... the markets' conditions do in fact deteriorate faster than it was initially anticipated... the blue line shown on the S&P chart presented here is a magnet and the next natural target located at around 2400 mark... the entire 2019 market gains to be wiped out completely... actually this is the only significant technical support on the way down... some initial bounce from this line with more or less meaningful correction might take place... nonetheless this level should be considered only as a "pit stop"... further losses towards and beyond 2120 mark (which is a "must reach level" no matter what) will be seen eventually...
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