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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #82,361
  • Mar 8, 2020 3:52pm Mar 8, 2020 3:52pm
below 104
TE started 6/4/19
  • #82,362
  • Mar 8, 2020 3:55pm Mar 8, 2020 3:55pm
I think its good time to buy at 103.50 to target above 107 before tanking again to 100
  • #82,363
  • Mar 8, 2020 4:25pm Mar 8, 2020 4:25pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} No bank will hold usdjpy shorts long term due to horrible swaps. Its much safer to buy the current dip and hold, smart money doesn't hold a losing investment(daily swap losses). At 105 its a no brainer...a trade into 110 is way better than a trade into 100.


One caveat... the banks are bleeding money due to the rate cuts. They are not going to take us for that ride to 105, and will do their best to pop every long trader's account before they get there. For that reason I see a dip to 100 being possible. It would rip small accounts out by the roots, pop the stop losses as well on the big ones, AND excite novice bears jumping in at 102-101. UJ outlook has been long above 90% since wed. A lot of money is out there, and the banks need it for their quarterly books.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,364
  • Mar 8, 2020 7:00pm Mar 8, 2020 7:00pm
Baby longs ripped, Stops blown, bears on board... now gap close...
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,365
  • Mar 8, 2020 7:59pm Mar 8, 2020 7:59pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} One caveat... the banks are bleeding money due to the rate cuts. They are not going to take us for that ride to 105, and will do their best to pop every long trader's account before they get there. For that reason I see a dip to 100 being possible. It would rip small accounts out by the roots, pop the stop losses as well on the big ones, AND excite novice bears jumping in at 102-101. UJ outlook has been long above 90% since wed. A lot of money is out there, and the banks need it for their quarterly books.
This make sense.
  • #82,366
  • Mar 9, 2020 12:24am Mar 9, 2020 12:24am
sheesh
TE started 6/4/19
  • #82,367
  • Mar 9, 2020 12:26am Mar 9, 2020 12:26am
Is this waterfall ever going to stop.

This is crazy!
Wonder where the turning point will be
  • #82,368
  • Mar 9, 2020 2:57am Mar 9, 2020 2:57am
USDJPY will target 100.60 the question wither it will retrace or not
  • #82,369
  • Mar 9, 2020 2:44pm Mar 9, 2020 2:44pm
I've 100.2 where UJ can move up. IF not 99 and below it it's air. I strongly doubt we go below 100.2. GL!
  • #82,370
  • Mar 10, 2020 2:05pm Mar 10, 2020 2:05pm
Long USDJPY. It's already hit the 105.450, next target is 106.050 and 106.500
  • #82,371
  • Mar 10, 2020 2:10pm Mar 10, 2020 2:10pm
USDJPY made a bottom I expect we will reach to 108
  • #82,372
  • Mar 10, 2020 2:29pm Mar 10, 2020 2:29pm
Quoting msniper
USDJPY made a bottom I expect we will reach to 108
It's just the calm before the impulsive storm. A pullback to 107.4 max then 100.2. This move will come with lockdown of many big cities in Europe and US within next hours/days.
  • #82,373
  • Mar 10, 2020 3:11pm Mar 10, 2020 3:11pm
I think the interim high has been reached.

Time to continue back down.
  • #82,374
  • Mar 10, 2020 3:15pm Mar 10, 2020 3:15pm
Agreed. It can be a perfect short entry. US is at the very early stage of getting hit by this virus. It easily can go to 102 in no time.
  • #82,375
  • Mar 10, 2020 4:53pm Mar 10, 2020 4:53pm
Quoting johnsmith2nd
Long USDJPY. It's already hit the 105.450, next target is 106.050 and 106.500

Not from here IMHO. Remember the banks... I think we are going to test 100.6 first. THEN go long. We got close, but didn't quite touch it. The banks won't go long until they convince folks we are truly bearish. Also EVERY edge has been double touched lately. Here is a daily of the last time we were here...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 125 KB


This is where most of the longs came in earlier, and badly managed accounts got ripped. My robot demo account took a kill shot here because it too saw longs and piled on.
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...0&d=1583284676
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,376
  • Mar 10, 2020 4:55pm Mar 10, 2020 4:55pm
Quoting enarco
I think the interim high has been reached. Time to continue back down.

Yep. 107 can wait.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,377
  • Mar 10, 2020 9:58pm Mar 10, 2020 9:58pm
Maybe the start of the rout down to like.....92
  • #82,378
  • Mar 10, 2020 10:13pm Mar 10, 2020 10:13pm
Quoting enarco
Maybe the start of the rout down to like.....92
it’s going down and I think we’ll see 102 soon. From there we should see what happens to the market dynamics.
  • #82,379
  • Mar 11, 2020 2:45am Mar 11, 2020 2:45am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Not from here IMHO. Remember the banks... I think we are going to test 100.6 first. THEN go long. We got close, but didn't quite touch it. The banks won't go long until they convince folks we are truly bearish. Also EVERY edge has been double touched lately. Here is a daily of the last time we were here... {image} This is where most of the longs came in earlier, and badly managed accounts got ripped. My robot demo account took a kill shot here because it too saw longs and piled on. {image}
Thanks for the analysis, definitely food for thought.
Trading on the higher time frames is going to be a tad riskier during these conditions - if you're an M1 scalper and can get in and out quickly these conditions can be good!
Good point about the banks.. Sentiment is currently Long, which makes me think the banks will dump their cash and cash in on the losers..... don't be a sheep...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 32 KB
  • #82,380
  • Mar 11, 2020 8:52pm Mar 11, 2020 8:52pm
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda to meet with Japanese PM Abe


Take caution for every yen strength....

BOJ could intervene soon to curb yen surge/limit nikkei drop....

watching yen move very closely..
Bismillah
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