We had overbought conditions on Ratios (1), overbought instance (price stepped up above the pink trend line - 2), many stop-losses were triggered there (3). All factors were suitable for bears to attempt to establish a new down-movement. They tried, in fact (4). However, after the Monday gap, the price reached a new high today (5). Why bears did fail?
The answer (as often comes from the bigger timeframe). This situation happens very often with traders who miss analyzing the global movements. Here is the 3d chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
We have here orange lines of the major trend-channel (6-7). Study the cases, when USDCAD did bounce with orange lines (I used green arrows to outline reversals).
8) Christmas Trap in 2018. Price made the fake breakout but reversed down in January/2019.
9) Christmas Trap in 2019. Price made the fake breakdown but reversed up in January/2020.
10) The recent indication in volume is bullish - this is No_Supply (diminishing volume amid a decline in price). A lack of traders wants to buy CAD. That is why the current movement has a bullish power.
In the global view, I project a long-time target around 1.37.
Oleg Alexandrov, market analyst. Find me in Google