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  • #1,163,501
  • Mar 3, 2020 4:26pm Mar 3, 2020 4:26pm
Here2there, some simple advice, which, unfortunately I don't always keep to: go with the fllow. Calling the top or bottom is a mug's game.
  • #1,163,502
  • Mar 3, 2020 4:48pm Mar 3, 2020 4:48pm
Watch this keep going up until end of week and come down hard on Friday with all the red data. I am not predicting, just saying would be a scenario. I trade my indicators and do not try to predict. In other words, I focus on finding high probability opportunities.
"What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end."-Warren Buffet
  • #1,163,503
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:08pm Mar 3, 2020 5:08pm
Quoting Fredrick7
Here2there, some simple advice, which, unfortunately I don't always keep to: go with the fllow. Calling the top or bottom is a mug's game.
I don't recall calling a top or a bottom. I know better than to do that. In fact, I have repeatedly stressed the point that technical analysis deals in probabilities, not in absolutes.

That's why you will often see me use such words as: likely, might, may, could, probable, unlikely, near, about, possible, etc...

Perhaps you have misunderstood one of my comments?
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,163,504
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:15pm Mar 3, 2020 5:15pm
Here2there, your trading against the flow by keeping to shorts when the pair is going up gave me the impression that you considered the or at least a significant top was in. Apologies if I got the wrong impression.
  • #1,163,505
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:17pm Mar 3, 2020 5:17pm
Quoting OhComeOn
Watch this keep going up until end of week and come down hard on Friday with all the red data. I am not predicting, just saying would be a scenario. I trade my indicators and do not try to predict. In other words, I focus on finding high probability opportunities.
It can go all the way up to 1.14, and at some point it likely will. But without a major retracement? I don't think so.

But today's market isn't normal, as we are dealing with a global threat (coronavirus) that is causing panic which in turn is having an adverse effect on USD and the stock market.

So anything can happen.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,163,506
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:24pm Mar 3, 2020 5:24pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} It can go all the way up to 1.14
Exactly. It'll go where it wants to go.
What will be will be. So sit back, relax and see how it all unfolds...
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #1,163,507
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:26pm Mar 3, 2020 5:26pm
Quoting Fredrick7
Here2there, your trading against the flow by keeping to shorts when the pair is going up gave me the impression that you considered the or at least a significant top was in. Apologies if I got the wrong impression.
I follow a money management system that few traders have the intestinal fortitude to handle.

A skilled trader can use a hedging strategy to turn losers into winners, and make good use of limit orders to minimize losses.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,163,508
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:29pm Mar 3, 2020 5:29pm
Quoting MozzChops
{quote} Exactly. It'll go where it wants to go. What will be will be. So sit back, relax and see how it all unfolds...
Well, the reason I said that is because I see massive sell orders waiting around 1.14 (Oanda's Order Book). This tells me there is a high probability this could end there. But I still think we are likely to see a retracement before it gets there . . . if it gets there at all.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,163,509
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:34pm Mar 3, 2020 5:34pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Well, the reason I said that is because I see massive sell orders waiting around 1.14 (Oanda's Order Book).
I'm short, have been all week. I wouldn't take much notice of those orders. That's Oando only so a very small percentage of the market.

Besides, who's to say it's not a trap by Oando to get people to short?
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #1,163,510
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:41pm Mar 3, 2020 5:41pm
Quoting MozzChops
{quote} I'm short, have been all week. I wouldn't take much notice of those orders. That's Oando only so a very small percentage of the market. Besides, who's to say it's not a trap by Oando to get people to short?
Well, I do have other tools I make use of. But Oanda's order book is quite reliable. I highly recommend you learn how to make it a part of your trading strategy.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,163,511
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:47pm Mar 3, 2020 5:47pm
I also made a mistake by reading COT without paying attention to Commercial numbers. Commercials and Non-Commercials both matter like we all do in trading. But usually non-commercials prevail. But sometimes commercials prevail. Note on the report, Commercials have 355,329 longs and short 270,784. Take a look at changes from for commercials, there is 15,084 added long and for short -11,226. If you take a look at daily chart, look at first blue arrow pointing down at the red candlestick. That is Feb.18.2020, second orange arrow pointing at small green candlestick Feb.19.2020 , than yellow arrow pointing at small red candlestick Feb.20.2020 and big light green arrow pointing at big green candle stick that is Feb.21.2020, which it was clear confirmation to enter long. My mistake was I was glued to keep selling EUR but lesson learned. Remember traders this business that we are in is on going education and we learn something new every day. We are only humans and we do make mistakes but learn from them. It was a clear sign to enter long positions, demand zone, the COT reports everything was there black and white, and I was not paying attention as I usually do and it happens. I did lose -$250 but overall in a good profit from the whole last month of February. Demand zone was fresh on a weekly. Trade safe.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COTEUR.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDdaily.png Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 125 KB
  • #1,163,512
  • Mar 3, 2020 6:03pm Mar 3, 2020 6:03pm
getting the flow right is not easy but it is essential, then TA helps to pin point (to a degree) the entries. For exits best is to use the change in the flow unless a decent reward is reached.
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,163,513
  • Mar 3, 2020 6:11pm Mar 3, 2020 6:11pm
Quoting Techanalyst
I also made a mistake by reading COT without paying attention to Commercial numbers. Commercials and Non-Commercials both matter like we all do in trading. But usually non-commercials prevail. But sometimes commercials prevail. Note on the report, Commercials have 355,329 longs and short 270,784. Take a look at changes from for commercials, there is 15,084 added long and for short -11,226. If you take a look at daily chart, look at first blue arrow pointing down at the red candlestick. That is Feb.18.2020, second orange arrow pointing at small green...
I was thinking the same thing, which, if you recall, is why I asked you about commercial VS non-commercial. But my question was one of which should we place more weight on. Your response was non-commercial.

Of course, I don't think you intended to imply commercial should be ignored, but only that it's not as important to the technical analyst. But now we can see, as you have pointed out, that it's not really a matter of which one is weightier but rather where do they fit in context to what the charts are telling us.

I respect your skills. You are one of few people I have encountered on here with a deeper understanding of technical analysis than the average trader.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,163,514
  • Mar 3, 2020 6:18pm Mar 3, 2020 6:18pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I was thinking the same thing, which, if you recall, is why I asked you about commercial VS non-commercial. But my question was one of which should we place more weight on. Your response was non-commercial. Of course, I don't think you intended to imply commercial should be ignored, but only that it's not as important to the technical analyst. But now we can see, as you have pointed out, that it's not really a matter of which one is weightier but rather where do they fit in context to what the charts are telling us. I respect your skills....
Exactly, thanks for understanding. Where do they fit with what charts is telling us. Now I am looking at this chart that I have attached and memorizing it forever HAHA, make sure not to make a same mistake. But that is good more opportunities will come and we will all make money. Trade safe.
  • #1,163,515
  • Mar 3, 2020 6:23pm Mar 3, 2020 6:23pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Exactly, thanks for understanding. Where do they fit with what charts is telling us. Now I am looking at this chart that I have attached and memorizing it forever HAHA, make sure not to make a same mistake. But that is good more opportunities will come and we will all make money. Trade safe.
Yes, and maybe there is a way to play each one off the other to find divergence. It could potentially give us an edge in the market.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,163,516
  • Mar 3, 2020 6:47pm Mar 3, 2020 6:47pm
Quoting Techanalyst
I also made a mistake by reading COT without paying attention to Commercial numbers. Commercials and Non-Commercials both matter like we all do in trading. But usually non-commercials prevail. But sometimes commercials prevail. Note on the report, Commercials have 355,329 longs and short 270,784. Take a look at changes from for commercials, there is 15,084 added long and for short -11,226. If you take a look at daily chart, look at first blue arrow pointing down at the red candlestick. That is Feb.18.2020, second orange arrow pointing at small green...
You weren't wrong the net leveraged community short yesterday was 18.2 bln euro, but they are unwinding and it push euro higher, you can not trade based on these numbers, there are lots of others, anyway as l told l expect 1.09 in less than a month, parity this year, good luck, l also said less than 2 weeks it sees 1.1 before 1.06
  • #1,163,517
  • Mar 3, 2020 7:53pm Mar 3, 2020 7:53pm
Quoting arash66110
{quote} You weren't wrong the net leveraged community short yesterday was 18.2 bln euro, but they are unwinding and it push euro higher, you can not trade based on these numbers, there are lots of others, anyway as l told l expect 1.09 in less than a month, parity this year, good luck, l also said less than 2 weeks it sees 1.1 before 1.06
Net leverage community? Where, which one?

I will have to disagree where you say you can't trade base on CFTC numbers. Actually from my experience you can and they help a lot. My mistake was ignoring commercials and only paying attention to non-commercials. If I paid attention to that, and charts... I would have gone long on EURUSD. Trade safe.
  • #1,163,518
  • Mar 3, 2020 8:44pm Mar 3, 2020 8:44pm
still buying, 1.12 seems still the target, may see 1.1250 before start retreating this week i guess
LUCKY golden trades, LUCKY gold investor trading style
  • #1,163,519
  • Mar 3, 2020 10:03pm Mar 3, 2020 10:03pm
ma on chart is 14 sma and 50 ema

so macd setting becomes 14,50, 2

i was just looking around for a good way to spot good trades

short taken at 1160 with 10 pip sl
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 28 KB
  • #1,163,520
  • Mar 3, 2020 10:47pm Mar 3, 2020 10:47pm
  •  dmj120
  • | Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Newbie with professional aspiration | 108 Posts
Quoting PatienceFx
ma on chart is 14 sma and 50 ema so macd setting becomes 14,50, 2 i was just looking around for a good way to spot good trades short taken at 1160 with 10 pip sl {image}
Entered short at 1162, targeting 1142. Honesty, because of some uncertainty, i may close sooner. I much prefer green +x pips than red, hahaha
School of hard knocks
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