Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 146 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #2,901
  • Mar 2, 2020 4:43am Mar 2, 2020 4:43am
Quoting parisboy
You will observe the same patterns again and again. Every day. On ALL instruments - On ALL Timeframes. it is NOT Random. It is structural. Know WHY. After that Analysis and Trading become easier. {image}
Spot on correct.
Structure in that "messy" chart.

You guys should ask Pb how long and how much effort he put in to come to this level of knowledge. So that you know.
Know what you trade
  • #2,902
  • Mar 2, 2020 4:49am Mar 2, 2020 4:49am
DAX FLD 32 Time Units - Price Action projected 16 Time Units in the Future - acting as Support and Resistance

You understand now : One Chart - One Tool
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX FLD 32 ACTING AS SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE 2 MARS 2020.jpg Size: 57 KB
  • #2,903
  • Mar 2, 2020 5:15am Mar 2, 2020 5:15am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Spot on correct. Structure in that "messy" chart. You guys should ask Pb how long and how much effort he put in to come to this level of knowledge. So that you know.
It looks "messy" to the average guy because he has not the right methodology and does not use the correct tools.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX FLD PAUSE ZONES DOUBLING PHENOMENON 2 MARS 2020.jpg Size: 108 KB
  • #2,904
  • Mar 2, 2020 5:19am Mar 2, 2020 5:19am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} It looks "messy" to the average guy because he has not the right methodology and does not use the correct tools. {image}
Pb, I made those post in response to your post so that you post the reply, that's my intention.

Your followers will listen to you only.
Know what you trade
  • #2,905
  • Mar 2, 2020 5:40am Mar 2, 2020 5:40am
DAX 1 mn

On going Short using FLD 32 as a tool for (Down)Trend following management (to follow)

Status + 50 points
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX SHORT FLD 32 + 128 2 MARS 2020.jpg Size: 136 KB
  • #2,906
  • Mar 2, 2020 5:43am Mar 2, 2020 5:43am
Quoting parisboy
DAX 1 mn On going Short using FLD 32 as a tool for (Down)Trend following management (to follow) {image}
Pb indices pretty bearish, got to focus on trading less posting.
Know what you trade
  • #2,907
  • Mar 2, 2020 5:45am Mar 2, 2020 5:45am
DAX 1 mn Short Follow Up

Status + 135 points
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX SHORT FLD 32 + 128 2 MARS 2020.jpg Size: 143 KB
  • #2,908
  • Mar 2, 2020 5:58am Mar 2, 2020 5:58am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX 11 2 MARS 2020.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #2,909
  • Mar 2, 2020 6:00am Mar 2, 2020 6:00am
DAX 1 mn Short Follow Up

Status + 187 points
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX SHORT FLD 32 + 128 2 MARS 2020.jpg Size: 136 KB
  • #2,910
  • Mar 2, 2020 6:03am Mar 2, 2020 6:03am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Pb indices pretty bearish, got to focus on trading less posting.
Now that's a great post, but WHY ?
  • #2,911
  • Mar 2, 2020 6:11am Mar 2, 2020 6:11am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Now that's a great post, but WHY ?
Pb made this post followed by the next.

I was tempted to point you to his chart.
BUT I expected Pb to take this short trade, so I backed off.
He will post later in the day....
And now he did.

Ask Pb WHY ???

Pb, time to cash out.
Attached Images
Know what you trade
  • #2,912
  • Mar 2, 2020 6:11am Mar 2, 2020 6:11am
I have no clue what I am doing, I wonder WHY
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM1c.png Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM1a.png Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM1b.png Size: 70 KB
  • #2,913
  • Edited 9:02am Mar 2, 2020 7:14am | Edited 9:02am
One of the flaws of Jenkins is :

- Jenkins has not a holistic methodology based on sound concepts
- hence Jenkins has a partial view of Price Action
- Jenkins charts mixed unhierarchized Swings , then the "Angles" and derivatives (1/2, 1/4, 1/3) work ...... or not
- if Jenkins "Angles" work or not there is one UNIQUE reason the same for both cases.

all this above is key to understand : the more trendlines or angles ( horizontal, vertical, diagonal, you draw on a chart ) the most chances you have to hit something or to be close.

The key reasoning is when you analyze WHY it had not worked. It is there that you understand the most the basics and the limitations of the tools you use

On the chart hereunder you can observe (in brown) the Dominant Cycle(s) operating within CVX Price Action.

The first weakness stays in the identification of the "First Impulse" basis of the Jenkins Offset Angle methodology.

Is the Line (1-4) or (1-F) the real "First Impulse" ?

Observe that (1-4) on the chart is the concatenation (summation) of 3 Swings (1-2), (2-3) , (3-4)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JENKINS CVX Screen Shot 2020-03-02 at 11.36.40 AM.png Size: 1.1 MB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JENKINS CVX CYCLES.jpg Size: 123 KB
  • #2,914
  • Mar 2, 2020 7:29am Mar 2, 2020 7:29am
Quoting OAPDave
I have no clue what I am doing, I wonder WHY {image} {image} {image}
Lol Dave, I always admire your nonchalant way of posting, despite you claiming you do not know what you are doing, infact I have a feeling you make money very well - even in Nih's thread. Also a kind request, if you could not delete your posts with your charts. Though you may think they do not offer anything, on the contrary they do offer substantial value here to us.

I too am quietly learning here (from what I can make of it), thank you Parisboy for your wonderful work.

Cheers
  • #2,915
  • Mar 2, 2020 7:40am Mar 2, 2020 7:40am
Quoting parisboy
if Jenkins "Angles" work or not there is one UNIQUE reason the same all this above is key to understand : the more trendlines or angles ( horizontal, vertical, diagnal, you draw on a chart ) the most chances you have to hit something or to be close. The key reasoning is when you analyze WHY it had not worked. It there you understand the most the basics and the limitations of the tools you use On the chart hereunder you can observe (in brown) the Dominant Cycle(s) operating within CVX Price Action. {image}{image}
The highlight part. That's WHY on that thread I asked for someone to explain exactly what's Jenkin's trade ?
Any line can be Jenkin's trade after the fact when so many lines are drawn. That's why I asked for live calls.

Even Murray math lines are accepted as Jenkin's trade.
There's also some usual horizontal sr line is also accepted as Jenkin's trade.
So why bother draw JSA ?
Oh I get it, so long as it shows profit that's JSA.
It's a huge mess in there.

I got attacked and eventually OP ban for pointing this out.
Know what you trade
  • #2,916
  • Edited 8:28am Mar 2, 2020 7:45am | Edited 8:28am
Understanding Jenkins CVX Chart : how to read it correctly.

a) The Underlying (Up)Trend brings CVX Price Action from 1 to 7 - this is the Measured Move - roughly the end result for a Buy and Hold Trader buying in (1) when CVX has reached Time (7)

Note that since Top (4) at least up to Top (10) even up to Low (11) CVX Price Action can be described as in Range (in blue)

This means we had a Directional Change from UP to RANGE (in blue) - Underlying Trend (Sum of ALL Cycles of Period greater than that of the Dominant Cycle (in brown) is now FLAT / NEUTRAL

b) Note that "Jenkins Angles" when they cross the Horizontal Line (blue) drawn from the initial Jenkins Top (4) have zero timing success with Price Action Tops (6,8,10,12) in green.

Jenkins Angles on this chart give more accurate timing informations as for the Lows (5, 7) in red.

Why ? This is not random.

A basic Knowledge of Cycles is :

- when Trend is UP Cycle Top is located graphically on the RIGHT
- when Trend is DOWN Cycle Top is located graphically on the LEFT
- when Trend is in RANGE (FLAT, NEUTRAL) Cycle Top is located graphically in the MIDDLE of the Cycle

This explained why Lows are used to determine Cycles periods.

Hence Tops can be located anywhere between 2 Lows .

To determine Cycle Periods you project the Dominant Cycle Lows on the Horizontal Time Period , this give you a relatively steady period. You can calculate the average and have a reasonable deviation of the average.

If you use the same methodology with Tops, your deviation of the average will be unusable in the real lidfe..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JENKINS CVX CYCLES 2.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #2,917
  • Mar 2, 2020 8:21am Mar 2, 2020 8:21am
DAX30 Pause zone earlier, crossed the first 2 FLD signifies strength up, then found support on it, Same with the envelopes support on black centered band, best of both worlds. Price crossed FLD 256 confirmed move up? Can this analysis be correct? What are we seeing entering US30 market PB? regards.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 3.png Size: 47 KB
  • #2,918
  • Mar 2, 2020 8:45am Mar 2, 2020 8:45am
Quoting KalC
{quote} Lol Dave, I always admire your nonchalant way of posting, despite you claiming you do not know what you are doing, infact I have a feeling you make money very well - even in Nih's thread. Also a kind request, if you could not delete your posts with your charts. Though you may think they do not offer anything, on the contrary they do offer substantial value here to us. I too am quietly learning here (from what I can make of it), thank you Parisboy for your wonderful work. Cheers
Thank you my friend, yes I delete my posts because of my total respect for Parisboy as I think he must be an Alien from a faraway Galaxy, with how much he understands about this game, so to thank him I post charts, perhaps not always quite as true to his teaching as he would like but at least I try, hence when he posts new charts there are no need to see mine.
Yes I did like Nih98 and it was a vary sad way with the way that finished.
To be honest I admit to being a bit dumb and often Parisboy does go over my head. but as-long as I try he is always there for me and indeed us
ps
Sorry for late reply just come back from my Walking Football Session
But thanks and study with Parisboy he is the man
Dave
  • #2,919
  • Edited 9:21am Mar 2, 2020 8:56am | Edited 9:21am
DAX 1 min FLD 32 in Action

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX FLD 32 IN ACTION2 MARS 2020.jpg Size: 60 KB
  • #2,920
  • Mar 2, 2020 9:37am Mar 2, 2020 9:37am
Quoting parisboy
DAX 1 min FLD 32 in Action {image}
Once target has been reach, Would you be looking for a quick reversal entry?

regards
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