EURUSD

While a little tricky to discern, the market played it’s hand on Friday. Unless we break above 0523 (and I am mistaken) we’re going short.
I’m expecting mostly some consolidation on Monday that rolls over short... but we will see what happens.
I’m not 100% sure but taking a small loss above 0523 gives good risk/reward to the downside.

We certainly can break above 1.10523. However, as mentioned in my analysis, we are only about 42 pips away from the Average Monthly Range High. So I would think that any break above 1.10523 will be short lived. In fact, it might even be a false break out. Time will tell.

But ultimately, I think we are going to see more bearish activity. If not soon, then sometime in the near future.

Thanks for your input.

i cannot short this setup

the levels are dynamic and change with every bar on that time frame, so i get to visualize multiple time frames in one hart and trade accordingly

My algos are definitely indicating we are approaching levels where we have to start looking to short it. but ill have to wait until i get a valid signal to do so.

The stock market condition could stop Euro bulls at any moment.

what do you think about the stock market on monday ?

Just comparing Price action on Feb 20 to last Friday.
They are identical, only upside down, and in the same place of the cycle to be mere coincidence.

The market always points the way

IMO, Long term trend is bearish on Weekly or Daily chart but short term is up and we may reach 1.1177 before the big drop.

Weekly chart.

I will post short term trend later

you have to choose for tomorow between 3 possibilities

Here's where correlation can help you to detect possible false positives in sentiment signals.

At Dailyfx, we currently see they are bullish on both EURUSD and Bitcoin.
Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment



I have an issue with this. Why?

Because USD and BTC are currently correlating. Meaning, they are essentially moving in the same direction.



If BTC is expected to go up due to sentiment, and USD is correlating with BTC, then we should expect USD to go up also. If USD goes up, then EURUSD should go down, because EURUSD is negatively correlated with BTC.



This indicates to me that the sentiment signal on EURUSD may not be as strong as some people would like to believe. And this makes sense, because Dailyfx is currently showing 45% are bullish and 55% are bearish on EURUSD. So it is kind of up in the air, so to speak. There isn't much of a difference, in others words, which means things could potentially change fast under such circumstances.

The point I am trying to make here is the signals aren't perfect. Traders need to be careful not to place all their weight on a single signal (try to repeatedly say that fast). A smart trader will put several things into consideration before making a decision to buy or sell.

By the way, for all you Bitcoin people, have you noticed that USD currently appears to be a leading indicator for BTC?

In the NEWS: There is no shortage of bad news coming out about coronavirus. So the markets will likely continue to give traders a wild ride this coming week. Take extra caution if you plan to place any trades! Especially in the stock market.

Did you miss my recent update on EURUSD? You can read it here.

From my point of view, technically EU is bullish or uptrend. But fundamentally there is no support for Euro strong, other than panic sell off on US stock & US dollar which will recover any time soon.

How bullish? It is potentially short term. Check the weekly time frame. The market lacks directional clarity.

Trade safe.

KP

H1 bullish
H4 bullish
D1 bullish
W1 bearish
MN bearish

I find it helpful to look at a currency strength meter.

This shows the Day, Week, and Month (4 Weeks).



This particular currency strength meter has many more time period options. It's the best I have seen.

Good point! You are safer being bearish at the right location but timing is key.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USD bubble blowing off steam will cause EUR to rise, also visa-versa because EUR is fundamentally undervalued.

I don't agree with this.

Anyway, i will keep long on eurusd until the price show big reversal.. just trade what you saw

Check out this week's Forex Weekly analysis update and forecast to find out about EURUSD

There so much false information being shared here I'd suggest new people don't listen to a single 1.