Pivot Trading

This might deflate USD on Monday open
3 days of Wall Street meltdown is raising serious concerns.Feds put a statement that will act accordingly.
This should have an impact and March 18 rate is not too far away.Panic should subside next week.I think we should see corrections.

Some times we just take a punch in the face and continue trading! Does not matter if it's an sea gull, corona virus....

There will be a "Black Monday" for Indices.

And some currency pairs will crash as well!!!

I suggest not to trade the eratic moves!

It could and yet be none factor since that maybe priced in already.

35.7% despite it is a negative number, it is above the minimum expectation 35.0%

After Feds basically throwing a white dove and March 18th coming rate cut which at this point and situation is given expect decline of USD
UC could drop to 1.30 and cross the board corrections on USD
China slowing effects globally and US as well.Add the virus factor US economy is not immune to it.

One of the biggest European travelling fairs (ITB Berlin) is cancelled next week.

@ppxdf: do you have These data for "Caixin Manufacturing PMI" on Monday?
Thank you,
Renko

Thank you ppxdf!

top Events ( close attention to Minimum & Maximum expetations) . That are what will move the currencies, when the deviation is below or above)
2 mar

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3 mar

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4 mar

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5 mar

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6 mar

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Central bank events

Top left corner is EURUSD clearly in an up trend, the rest is crosses moving even faster poised for an correction.

Calendar for 1st week of March (week 10 of 2020)
Different data will not have any impact due to the strange situation that we have now in the markets. I voluntarily didn't take in consideration some minor data (like EUR CPI Flash Estimate for example) because the market is expecting other data.

Mon
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Forecast of 46.1 from 51.1 I don't think it will have so much impact, because saturday data will be priced in at that moment. How much those data are already priced in we don't know yet. So let's wait for market open.
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast of 50.5 from 50.9 Another bad data and USD could start to collapse

Tue
AUD Cash Rate Forecast of 0.75% from 0.75% I'm seeing the same situation of the last Cash Rate Statement, with the difference that now AUD is way more overstreched. The chance to hold rate now is at 89%, against a cut of 11%. This is for me the most important event of this week.

Wed
AUD GDP q/q Forecast of 0.4% from 0.4% This GDP is about the Q4 of 2019, so we may also see green data here. Anything green would give some strength to the poor AUD
CNY Caixin Services PMI Forecast of 48 from 51.8 Same thing of Manufacturing PMI
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast of 170K from 291K I don't think this will have so much impact, if not for a big red data. Data on Friday much more important
CAD Overnight Rate Forecast of 1.75% from 1.75% Could CAD gain some strength? I think about the overstreched UC in particular

Thu
OPEC Meetings We may have some news about future policies or decisions about oil, keeping in mind the past ideas of OPEC Nations to stabilize oil price and to further cuts of production.

Fri
AUD Retail Sales m/m Forecast of 0.0% from -0.5% it's obvious that green here would be really appreciated
CAD Employment Change Previous of 34.5
CAD Unemployment Rate Forecast of 5.6% from 5.5% Important to see where Cad will be after BOC Rate Statement
USD Average Hourly Earnings Forecast of 0.3% from 0.2%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast of 185K from 225K
USD Unemployment Rate Forecast of 3.5% from 3.6% Anything red could lift down heavily USD pairs due to its overbought state and the talks about the rate cut

This week (and maybe also the others of March) I will manage my positions. For people who have AUD longs I think that the most important things are where market will open tonight to see how much the bad chinese data are priced in and the Cash Rate on Tuesday.
This week I think that talks about the Fed cut rate will be more. The models now are giving an almost sure 0.5 points cut, with the possibility of 0.75 point cut. I personally haven't already seen in my experience a 0.75 points cut to USD rate, so I don't know what to expect.

Hello Davit and guys. I was away from this fantastic forum for a week because I nailed a new job and had to move to Melbourne (I drove a 1736 km way, took me 18 hours!)

Glad I am settled in now and can contribute to/benefit from this thread again...

Welcome back! How is the mood there specially after AUD spanking

Hi guys
Just want to say its important you are passionate about trading and love it even when your performance does not exceed your expectation.
As an artist sometimes I ruin 20 drawings to get one great one its same across lot of fields.Trading should be looked upon as creative process you are constantly being challenged by the market and adapt, overcome and succeed. Last week market humbled lot of egos and that's fine its important we respect it.
Don't ever feel discouraged remember we love this!You keep pushing yourself! until it becomes muscle memory.

Today another corona-related death was reported and caused a lot of concern. In total, 25 people have been reported so far and they're considering a ban on flights from Iran.

Considering? Are you kidding me? Its ban now!Its the only logical thing to do limit exposure.

My Calendar Events week One March

Sharp focus on AUD CAD USD.

Sun
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Projection to decline 46.1 from 51.1. Any red number may already be priced in, due to Manufacturing PMI data released on saturday, that showed a contraction of 35.7 from 45.1. Worse than the last global financial crisis.

Mon
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Projection of 50.5 from 50.9. Don't be surprised if this prints red. UC on watchlist.
AUD Building Approvals m/m To edge up 1.1% from -0.2%. This may not have much impact due to RBA rate decision later on.

Tues
AUD Cash Rate Projection is to hold steady at 0.75%.
AUD RBA Rate Statement Even if they cut rates, this may already be priced in. AUD plummeted to 11-year lows. AN, AC, EA on radar.
EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y Projection of 1.4%. A red number here may present some opportunities to sell EUR crosses.
AUD GDP q/q Projection of 0.4% from 0.4%.

Weds
CAD BOC Rate Statement Even with inflation running above the 2% target midpoint and good numbers on the last labour market data, BOC may cut rates, markets have now priced cuts of almost 75-b.p in the overnight rate by year end (source), due to concerns over the impact of the coronavirus on global trade.
BOC has been here before. In October, officials acknowledged they considered an “insurance” rate cut to counter growing risks associated with global trade tensions, ultimately deciding against it. EC and AC on radar.
CAD Overnight Rate Projection to hold at 1.75%.
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Projection of 55.1 from 55.5. Don't expect green here.
CAD BOC Press Conference

Thurs
CAD OPEC Meetings OPEC and its allies (known as OPEC+) are likely to agree to additional output cuts as the demand outlook for oil continues to deteriorate in the face of a long-term impact on the global economy from the coronavirus.
CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
AUD Retail Sales m/m Projection of 0.0% from -0.5%.

Fri
CAD OPEC-JMMC Meetings
CAD Employment Change Previous of 34.5K. No projection yet.
CAD Unemployment Rate To increase 5.6% from 5.5% (from Fxstreet)
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m To edge up 0.3% from 0.2%.
USD Non-Farm Employment Change Projection of 185K from 225K.
USD Unemployment Rate To decrease 3.5% from 3.6%.
CAD Ivey PMI Previous of 57.3. No projection yet.

On my radar are UC, EC, EA, EN, AN, AC, CJ.

In times like these it's important to remember that we are not our mistakes and losing trades. What we call mistakes are actually valuable lessons for success. All automatic guidance systems reach their goals by constantly correcting mistakes. A guided missile on its way to its target has sensors that detect when its off course. The guidance mechanism then makes the necessary adjustment and proceeds.
This is done thousands of times on its journey. The guided missile relies on this negative feedback to guide it to its destination.
The above is from this great post.

Green pips!

Anyone knows a site which shows present weekend prices? Please post the link if you find it
like to see if there are gaps
I suspect UC 3380 open or lower after death of virus in US and Feds statement I think USD dumping may start taking shape.