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  • China’s factories activity plunges to all-time low, worse than global financial crisis, February data show

    From scmp.com

    Chinese manufacturing activity plunged in February, with the first official data published amid the coronavirus outbreak confirming fears over the impact on the Chinese economy. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slowed to 35.7, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday, having slipped to 50.0 in January when the full impact of the coronavirus was not yet evident. Analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected the February reading to come in at 45.0. A reading below 50 signals indicates a contraction in sector activity. The farther the figure below 50, the greater the contraction ... (full story)

  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.0.189
Well look for the world CB's to announce coordinated rate cuts to try and help the markets on Monday.

Worst readings on this data since 2008.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.84.6
Expect huge gap openings on all pairs
yen to test 100 soon
Bismillah
Wow...wow...wow... buy Gold, buy Yen, sell oz dollar,. We are going to see crazy market om monday! Big move for sure.
What do you think guys?
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.220.84
Monday will be a blood bath. Consider this. You have this bell weather of whats to come in south korea and Japan, and 2 whole days to have more headline risk hit. Gapping down for sure. Hope you bought some yen. Oh lawwd
Data already priced in and all pairs already hit where they should hit Now think reverse.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.234.110
Quoting badeel
Data already priced in and all pairs already hit where they should hit Now think reverse.
How could it it be priced in already when the actual number is far below the consensus number that was expected?
Gold will flying higher on monday yeah!!!
Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
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Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
Who enter the rebound ,wil be wiped out ...probably
S
I see a "BLACK MONDAY"!!!
Can someone tell me how can Gold be at 1586$ after 1689$ in curent fudamental conditions ? Or rather why? What happend someone needed cash and sell tons of Gold ? Or what?
S
slaughterhouse monday opening
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
Monday will be down or note gold
Quoting Calin100
Can someone tell me how can Gold be at 1586$ after 1689$ in curent fudamental conditions ? Or rather why? What happend someone needed cash and sell tons of Gold ? Or what?
https://www.metalsmine.com/news/983544-gold-futures-post-biggest-daily-percentage-drop-since
Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
Quoting Calin100
Can someone tell me how can Gold be at 1586$ after 1689$ in curent fudamental conditions ? Or rather why? What happend someone needed cash and sell tons of Gold ? Or what?
probably more precise : selling started in gold stocks, to cover losses elsewhere. After that arbitrageurs pulled price of gold down by selling gold & buying gold stock for relationship gold to gold stock prices to be back in line.
Gold was sold because the long gold will be shifted to long Dow in the coming weeks
But no doubt there are some leveraged long suffering
Quoting badeel
Data already priced in and all pairs already hit where they should hit Now think reverse.
I would say whats priced in is the preparation they (MMs) did on xauusd on Friday. Took out many buyers and noe theyll noe kill the sellers.
Quoting Guest
{quote} How could it it be priced in already when the actual number is far below the consensus number that was expected?
It can. Markets are irrational. They fly higher than fundamentals support in good times and drop harder in harsh times. Personally I was hoping to See Dow back to 28000 area to short it. That may be too far reaching now and time to rethink strategy in weekend. If Dow shall into bear territory its around 23000. And who says it stops there. But still waiting for a retracement to short from.

I was never a big trump fan but respekt ofcourse that hr was democratically elected. I am glad this happens in his watch. The politics and his constantly screeming around has inflated assets beyond fundamental reason in my view.
Quoting Guest
{quote} How could it it be priced in already when the actual number is far below the consensus number that was expected?
The consensus number would have a huge confidence interval on it, if it had one.

Meaning, yes this is a miss, but no, it is not a big surprise.
Usual China fakes...

Yeah.
Same as always banksters crooks.

Stocks bubble goes boom

If you're interested in real solid money, like Bitcoin we have a thread. Only intelligent people.

https://www.cryptocraft.com/showthread.php?p=12782372#post12782372

And vigorous discussion on silly stuff. Here....

https://www.cryptocraft.com/showthread.php?p=12782820#post12782820
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
Quoting Calin100
Can someone tell me how can Gold be at 1586$ after 1689$ in curent fudamental conditions ? Or rather why? What happend someone needed cash and sell tons of Gold ? Or what?
Every one knows gold is a manipulated cr.p.

Last day of month....

Link next post....
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
The amount of paper (Trash) gold known as crooked certificates is 120 times bigger than real gold traded.

They short using paper money.
Booooom.
Down.
Stop hunt excellent. 85% people were long...

More dip possible

Explained here.
https://www.cryptocraft.com/showthread.php?p=12724073#post12724073
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.234.77
Quoting elanjaelani
Wow...wow...wow... buy Gold, buy Yen, sell oz dollar,. We are going to see crazy market om monday! Big move for sure. What do you think guys?
Why buy yen? Rather weakness of the yen?
Talking here.

https://www.cryptocraft.com/showthread.php?p=12733443#post12733443
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
Should be priced in. It's not like nobody now what is going on and suddenly terrible news. Everybody know what is going right now. No surprise. Maybe on monday make new lows but right after that corrections should start.
Quoting badeel
Data already priced in and all pairs already hit where they should hit Now think reverse.
already priced?!!! how did you already know these awful figures?!!!these numbers are far worse than investors expected. us stocks and oil will sharply fall on Monday and gold will open with a gap up.
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Every one knows gold is a manipulated cr.p. Last day of month.... Link next post....
Yeah pal. i agree with you about manipulating gold at most times. that's why i don't trade it especially when the most investors expect a fall or a raise.
Quoting afevir
{quote} https://www.metalsmine.com/news/983544-gold-futures-post-biggest-daily-percentage-drop-since
thanks for opinion ,but i think it,s more then that,it.s not the first time when Gold price is acting whitout fundamental bases or with weak fundamental ...
S
Quoting sadeghi
{quote} already priced?!!! how did you already know these awful figures?!!!these numbers are far worse than investors expected. us stocks and oil will sharply fall on Monday and gold will open with a gap up.
Thats right, china will cut their RRR again and FED cut their rates, it will be hard to get expand economy, cause USA export and import to china, and china export amd import to USA. Every surplus from trade balance will be deficit. Low growth.
Its mean more QE from FED and every bank central.

After dip. Gold will be flying higher and gap up on monday. And flying more higher.
Quoting Banditten
Gold was sold because the long gold will be shifted to long Dow in the coming weeks

Investor on stocks will dissapoint cause PMI on china get contraction. Stocks will down anymore. And all cash from selling gold (that make gold dip friday) will be shifted on gold gap up on monday
Quoting elanjaelani
Wow...wow...wow... buy Gold, buy Yen, sell oz dollar,. We are going to see crazy market om monday! Big move for sure. What do you think guys?

Right bro
Quoting elanjaelani
Wow...wow...wow... buy Gold, buy Yen, sell oz dollar,. We are going to see crazy market om monday! Big move for sure. What do you think guys?
If you want to make money in forex, do exactly the opposite of what you are saying.
Happy trading to all!
Well whatever happens the central banks have the tiniest window ever to avert a crash on Sunday night, if they wait for US open they'll be up against a Tsunami
Ironically, this might be better for the markets than green numbers. Because for the markets, the biggest enemy is uncertainty. Here its not, numbers are bad, but China doesn't try to hide it, which is a positive thing. And while retail may start shorting everything asia related, the banks might just do the opposite.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.225.146
Quoting sadeghi
{quote} already priced?!!! how did you already know these awful figures?!!!these numbers are far worse than investors expected. us stocks and oil will sharply fall on Monday and gold will open with a gap up.
We’re in the middle of a tail event. Analysts’ estimates are completely irrelevant. This is not surprising new information.
during the 08 crisis..anyone checked the price actions on gold and equities on the actual day of lehman ?
I don’t think only Chinese PMI data would lead so big earthquakes in global markets alone.However there may be gap down (stocks) but it should bounce back quickly after successfully trap the sellers.
Just remember (or check) what happened when the Chinese market opened after first day of virus spread. I am not optimistic but market is not so weak.
Also corona virus is not HIV. Many people had it very mild. One of the biggest con in financial history.
Its not an advice and sorry for grammar.
My forecast for GOLD, the lines will give exact sell levels but the weekend means the data is shifted to the right:
https://www.screencast.com/t/Ewerq8ngmIQc

6 good trades on gold to be had with about 2000 points in it.
Quoting sadeghi
{quote} already priced?!!! how did you already know these awful figures?!!!these numbers are far worse than investors expected. us stocks and oil will sharply fall on Monday and gold will open with a gap up.
During tail events you can take analysts' forecasts and put them where the sun doesn't shine.

This big slump in Chinese manufacturing is in no way a surprise.
Quoting OnlineAddict
Ironically, this might be better for the markets than green numbers. Because for the markets, the biggest enemy is uncertainty. Here its not, numbers are bad, but China doesn't try to hide it, which is a positive thing. And while retail may start shorting everything asia related, the banks might just do the opposite.
That's my thinking. Sell the rumour (uncertainty and a sense that things are very bad) and buy the fact.
Looks like the impact on global economy will be severe. I would not be surprised to see Dow under 20k soon.
65% of retailers ære short Dow. Although I am Very bearish on short term I would be careful to just jump the gun sunday night. There may be some liquidity hunting.

Ok the financial side I dont Know or care how analysts get to their numbers. It shoud be obvious to everybody that the numbers would suck
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.162.4
A few trillion dollars has been wiped out of the markets. What leverage issues are now outstanding at hedge funds and other financial institutions. The trickle down from these issues will now linger. Volatility prevails which is good for us currency traders. Holding over the weekend was basically a coin flip.
Hell open for AU short without no end.Deep south we go.Nothing gonna help catch the huge nose dive.All short AU.
Make it Green
https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-wall-street
Dow is gap down for 330 points
Quoting louisfx
Hell open for AU short without no end.Deep south we go.Nothing gonna help catch the huge nose dive.All short AU.
In a month Chinese factories will be back to full production and AU will be above 0.70 later this year.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
Quoting issam_telfah
Dow is gap down for 330 points
So minimum impact, this all was priced in already and retailers will be the only ones shorting this. And later, when it keeps going up, they will come here to whine about manipulation and how everybody is against them. Same story all the time.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
sell the rumor......buy the fact
Interestingly the equity futures surged at the very close of the NY trading session and the one hour afterward. Though perhaps it could have also been an unwinding of positions ?
Enter Signature
Dow gap down is -400 now, probably -1000 by the time Europe opens. I think in 2008 the Fed tried multiple interest rate cuts but they never worked so cannot see that making a difference here. It'll need coordinated central bank intervention across the world to get this to bounce.
now it's -530 this is looking ugly
-600 now
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  • | IP XX.XXX.134.55
Quoting ettrader
-600 now
Where are you checking this?
dow gap down then go up ,based on FED intervention
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} In a month Chinese factories will be back to full production and AU will be above 0.70 later this year.
From sources closer to the situation, I understand that to-date the Chinese factories are yet to achieve normal mode. They seems to be having supply chain and staffing problems where workers are MIA from their positions.

This does not gel well for AU in the short term.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
Quoting Bones
dow gap down then go up ,based on FED intervention
Buy gold
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} In a month Chinese factories will be back to full production and AU will be above 0.70 later this year.
Agree with this, will see how it unfolds..
market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient
The winkwink nudgenudge from JPow Friday was they will backstop equities. There is still alot of downside risk but I kind of think that might come about in a more measured way. No more 3,000 pt DOW drops in a week, I'd bet. We'll see soon...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
This is a totally normal.print given the FACT that so many fsctories were closed... and still some remain closed and the fsct that we had the chinese new year I domt know which idiot made the expectations but if you use your basic knowledge and not rush like a gambler full of FOMO you would understand that this is totally normal.

On the other side when we had the other viruses they just didnt close factories and they disnt happen over holidays.
If other countrys will be force to take quarantine measures like China this is just the beginning
S
Quoting Calin100
If other countrys will be force to take quarantine measures like China this is just the beginning
IMHO many people here don't seem to be understanding the economical impact this is very likely to have on global level. Stocks mirror the future expectations and there there is very little the FED can do to prevent any development, taking also in consideration the recent totally unnecessary rate drops which only increased the equity bubble. The end result being a bigger bubble and less ammo when needed. In 2008 the interest rate level was much higher than now so the situation is not directly comparable.

In order to get some understanding about the economic consequences, think what kind of impact a 50% drop in tourism and travel alone would have in your country or city during the next 6-12 months. How would all the cancelled events affect the local economy? How about all the broken supply chains?

Hopefully things will get better soon but at this point it does not look like that. As an investor I would also be very concerned and wait out the situation before getting to the buy side.
Quoting TraderTero
{quote} IMHO many people here don't seem to be understanding the economical impact this is very likely to have on global level. Stocks mirror the future expectations and there there is very little the FED can do to prevent any development, taking also in consideration the recent totally unnecessary rate drops which only increased the equity bubble. The end result being a bigger bubble and less ammo when needed. In 2008 the interest rate level was much higher than now so the situation is not directly comparable. In order to get some understanding...
Agree ,...hope a vaccine will come quickly
S
From what we can see the only reasons why gold should have dropped is that Germany, Canada & US had slight good numbers. But it shouldn't have moved this far down. Does anyone see the possibility that they did push the market down to get a cheap prize on gold, then release the news that the second biggest economy of the world has even worse numbers than in the crisis of 08/09 to get prize up again? i think there will be a lot of people buying gold now.

I mean the corona is still around, even worse. The economy is still not that healthy, why sould gold make such an big sale? If i could move the markets my plan would be exactly like what did happen.
Something to consider and watch out is that banks don't care about the present, they care about the future. Such bad numbers may be seen as a bottom for this current "crisis". They may think we won't see such a bad numbers in the future and it can only go up.

I wouldn't be too sure of shorting over and over.
COT: The precious data ignored
Quoting kuroro001
Something to consider and watch out is that banks don't care about the present, they care about the future. Such bad numbers may be seen as a bottom for this current "crisis". They may think we won't see such a bad numbers in the future and it can only go up. I wouldn't be too sure of shorting over and over.
Numbers are numbers. When you do everything in 10 years and still ends up with nothing !!.. no way you can control events, then market starts loosing faith in bank policies & Now you'll see safe heavens will get a push in the rest of the quarter and month. Gold due correction is over & now we will see new high in bullion, may be not in the manner which we witness earlier but they will keep getting buyers with dips... watching 1557 level and 1625 to watch PA..
You are right ,the dow is bearish ,thats a top.
Because the damage is already done and to be worse still ,they can't stop the spread only delay it to warmer weather.Then hopefully a vaccine will be available later in year.
I think the Fed will act to stop the panic and the dow is at a super level technically.Its about holding off panic ,but you won't hold that chart medium term...


Quoting TraderTero
{quote} IMHO many people here don't seem to be understanding the economical impact this is very likely to have on global level. Stocks mirror the future expectations and there there is very little the FED can do to prevent any development, taking also in consideration the recent totally unnecessary rate drops which only increased the equity bubble. The end result being a bigger bubble and less ammo when needed. In 2008 the interest rate level was much higher than now so the situation is not directly comparable. In order to get some understanding...
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Vancarbon
In my opinion traders should be buying this dip They don't come round this deep very often
Governments are not taking action based on media hype. They go based on facts and possible consequences to health care system and death toll if the virus is being let to spread without trying to slow it down. There is a reason why health care specialists are so concerned that they want to close schools and cancel bigger events.

IMHO we are far from hitting the bottom with stocks. In 2008 the markets went down 50%, with today's rates we would be looking at Dow being around 15k. The impact to global economy is likely to be big. Stocks can go up short term but I can't see how we could get out of this situation unharmed.
category 5 pandemic, flu is category 1
CDC chart

Quoting Vancarbon
How about looking at the facts and stop speculating Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Last updated: February 29, 4:40 GMT There are two sources that provide age, sex, and comorbidity statistics: The Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission published on Feb. 28 by WHO, [2] which is based on 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases. The report notes that "The Joint Mission acknowledges the known challenges and biases of reporting crude CFR early in an epidemic" (see also our discussion on: How to calculate the mortality rate...
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Mortality Rate, as discussed by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China on Feb. 4
Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHC said that [7]:

The formula they are using is: cumulative current total deaths / current confirmed cases. Therefore, as of 24:00 on Feb. 3, the formula used was 425/20,438.
Based on this figure, the national mortality rate to date was 2.1% of confirmed cases.
There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.
97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic.
Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHC official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.
National mortality rate was basically stable, as of Feb. 4 at 2.1%, and it was 2.3% at the beginning of the epidemic, which can be seen as a slight decline.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Dows a top no doubt ,China is shut down
technically its a top already ,its not about death so much as time off work potential
a lot of people at the same time including quarantine hot spots going forward.

Quoting Vancarbon
In my opinion traders should be buying this dip They don't come round this deep very often
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
also politically ,I think it will go up next ,Trump wants it up they will step in
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} So minimum impact, this all was priced in already and retailers will be the only ones shorting this. And later, when it keeps going up, they will come here to whine about manipulation and how everybody is against them. Same story all the time.
It's amazing how often we see this. A news story gets retail punters excited.... we see a gap on Sunday only for it to reverse instantly.
Quoting ww3361
{quote} It's amazing how often we see this. A news story gets retail punters excited.... we see a gap on Sunday only for it to reverse instantly.
Its not just this business, we see the same error patterns in human behaviour in everything, people keep repeating the same mistakes again and again. Good for those who can profit on it.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
ok ,look at
Italy probably reliable numbers ,there shutting down cities in the west haha, nothing to worry about


566 new cases and 5 new deaths in Italy, for a total of 1,694 cases. Among the 1,577 active cases, 779 (49%) are hospitalized, 140 of which (representing 9% of active cases) are in intensive care. Among the 117 closed cases, 83 (71%) have recovered, 34 (29%) have died.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
don't got by media, go by actions
they can't stop it ,2% is high on something like this
20% complication is high the pressure that can put in a short time ,how people underestimate this

all countries the numbers start small then

Quoting ww3361
{quote} It's amazing how often we see this. A news story gets retail punters excited.... we see a gap on Sunday only for it to reverse instantly.
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
like this
R0 needs to be under 1 to stop it, if who are right thats high
flu is under 1
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
its true ,the numbers are early ,won't know till later exact
but Italy if your ill your going to go to hospital with those symptoms ? so prob about right
the point is if you get it your ill and in quarantine ,your area probably be in quarantine ,you can see the gravity of that ?
One thing for sure its super contagious RO=2.5 to 4 ,just look how it spreads with your own eyes

Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} No , that's reported cases . There's probably a great % more than those that's found . It's far less lethal when you consider this is a pandemic .
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Dow is pretty messed up ,because Trump administration has a policy to keep high .They made tax breaks so companies like Apple could bring home money and buy back their stock driving it higher .
To be fair it was already too high ,driven by policies around the world.

Thats a top ,.later economies will suffer over this virus story

Apple bought back 345 million shares in its latest fiscal year, paying an average price of $194 a share. The stock is now more than 50% above that level. The program has provided meaningful support to the company's shares, accounting for an estimated 4% of all shares traded in some quarters, according to one analyst.
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
yes ,but thats not a killer new virus, statistics are very bad ,theres enough to know this is a tricky disease
long incubation ,you don't know you're ill and spreading it.

Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Absolutely Bones ! I do like your posting style and your analysis . The common cold/flu is contagious as well .
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
AUDCHF went back to Friday's level, even after death in US and seemingly bad pmi (with Asia market already open) will be interesting to see what unfold tmr.
market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient
Italy is the country to watch ,as most reliable.
I thought about it and there's defiantly not 1000s of cases's un reported .
To work out the death rate Italy you need to divide the deaths today with the numbers of infected say 7 days ago .
Theres a time lag in all this not known for sure.
Today theres 1700 infected about 7 days ago it was about 1000
theres 54 deaths today so that gives a death rate in Italy at about 5% so far.

I trust the Italians to report flu like symptoms and not go on a super spreading spree....
Uk and US are currently going through the start of losing track of low numbers to go on as other hot spots.

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}

Apart from deaths and large scale illness ,
The more people it infects the more chance it can make a random mutation ,thats why cities will be shut down just like china, they can't afford for it to spread unhindered.

If R0 is large, herd immunity protects only if many are immune. (Herd Immunity threshold = 1 - 1/R0)

Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Absolutely Bones ! I do like your posting style and your analysis . The common cold/flu is contagious as well .
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
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