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Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

  • #621
  • Feb 10, 2020 6:09pm Feb 10, 2020 6:09pm
USD Basket Analysis says that we should be looking to long the USD.

Basically anything under the horizontal X axis is a Buy the further away it gets from the X axis, and anything above the X axis is a Sell the further away it gets.
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  • #622
  • Feb 10, 2020 6:13pm Feb 10, 2020 6:13pm
AU same as EU, retail trying to go Long - for a LONG time.
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  • #623
  • Feb 10, 2020 6:15pm Feb 10, 2020 6:15pm
UC same story but inverse since retail is trying to short the dollar in most pairs.

For scalpers and swing traders - playing opposite the herd pays huge $$$.
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  • #624
  • Feb 11, 2020 12:15am Feb 11, 2020 12:15am
Quoting SentiFX
UC same story but inverse since retail is trying to short the dollar in most pairs. For scalpers and swing traders - playing opposite the herd pays huge $$$. {image}
Indeed USDCAD has showed great momentum lately, but I find weird that it tries hard to stay above average buying.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #625
  • Feb 11, 2020 9:06am Feb 11, 2020 9:06am
The colors are inverted to quickly make decisions, retail has been heavily shorting UC.

The invered colors make it blue as a buy signal to use with any trading methodology.
  • #626
  • Feb 13, 2020 5:30pm Feb 13, 2020 5:30pm
What is your trading style? What time frame do you trade?
  • #627
  • Feb 16, 2020 1:27pm Feb 16, 2020 1:27pm
Weekly Sentiment Analysis and Positioning

See the analysis here:
https://sentifx.com/share/ff/post/eowa/eowa-16-feb-20/

Trade with edge,
Charles
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  • #628
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:58pm Feb 18, 2020 4:58pm
USD still showing strength in the USD basket analysis and the currency strength index.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #629
  • Feb 18, 2020 11:43pm Feb 18, 2020 11:43pm
I find this kind of stuff fascinating.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #630
  • Edited 6:42pm Feb 26, 2020 6:15pm | Edited 6:42pm
Market Profile and Sentiment?

Sentiment Trading applies to ALL Trading styles to include Market Profile traders.

What we see here is that EU was drifting lower for many sessions as retail was overly long. We can see that shorts started adding to their positions and we had a trend day.

Price retested the prior value area and then has been continuing upward as retail has shifted from overly long to shorting more and more.

I've said over and over in this thread, the shifting is just as important as the extremes. Most big moves are caught in the beginning by observing the Sentiment shifts and Market Structure changes.

Anyway, I grabbed +23 x 10 = 230 pts from the EU trade. EU shifting was brought to my attention from a trader in our community. I'll share the post next before the move actually happened.

Sentiment is the biggest edge in FX. The sentiment indicator and sentiment analysis tool are available as stand alone - single purchase indicators. If you want to find out more if sentiment trading is right for you, visit https://sentifx.com
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  • #631
  • Feb 26, 2020 6:42pm Feb 26, 2020 6:42pm
Analysis with a Candle Chart and the Sentiment Analysis Tool:

See below images for the analysis that one of the traders in our community had shared.

Notice the mention of a structural change and a shift in sentiment across Y axis which is a signal for us to get in.
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  • #632
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:10am Feb 27, 2020 1:10am
... And this one is still running well!
60 pips profit now!

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(Fundamental rule: let the winners run, cut the losers!
Not easy but it works)
  • #633
  • Feb 27, 2020 10:29am Feb 27, 2020 10:29am
Look at the previous relative sentiment short increase and go look at EURUSD charts. To the moon!!

Sentiment Shifting and Sentiment Extremes are the BIGGEST edge in Spot FX.

I will make a video this weekend to go over the details of how easy this trade has been day after day going opposite of the retail herd movements.
  • #634
  • Mar 2, 2020 6:35am Mar 2, 2020 6:35am
I have talked about the shift or change in sentiment being an important factor when using Sentiment along with your trading style.

Here is a taste of how you can take advantage of price moves BEFORE they happen.

Inserted Video
  • #635
  • Mar 2, 2020 12:20pm Mar 2, 2020 12:20pm
EU has been on a run since the original relative sentiment shift. I had 2 orders in last night to go long... none filled.

I did get filled on 1 (of 2) UJ short trade and banked 71 pips x 5:1 leverage for +305 points.

UJ sentiment showed retail just getting to extreme buying and relative sentiment showed them adding to longs.

Easy trade. Easy pips. Zero stress.
  • #636
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:14pm Mar 3, 2020 5:14pm
Another example of how the shifting is important when sentiment has been at extremes for sometime.

You can see some of my commentary (in the SentiFX slack group) about AU being an attractive trade for a long.

Sentiment had been hanging out at extremes, relative sentiment showed shorts starting to add to positions instead of trying to go long - AND -

Note 1) Was a down trend day but on day 2) price didn't follow through, it tried to push lower but was immediately bought up and established value higher instead of lower. This is clear by the P profile. And the resulting day is at 3) Today - POP. MM's taking price up. Now retail will be the sheep that they are - go short, and get crushed.

Same situation week after week.

You could have easily made over 100 pips on this trade. I only made 93 pips x 5 leverage = +465 points.
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  • #637
  • Mar 8, 2020 2:03pm Mar 8, 2020 2:03pm
Coronavirus is a major headline risk right now - which is a major driving force for UJ going south. (JPY is a risk off currency).

But also notice that retail is heavily long with UJ for quite some time now. The shorts are in profit (the red line is the average retail shorts) and the longs are in major pain.... should be getting fully stopped out soon or exiting positions (blue line on main chart).

We're looking for retail shorts to start adding on the relative sentiment indicator or a Y axis cross on the Sentiment Analysis Tool.

Then we are looking for the market makers to tip their hand by changing market structure and we will be ready to get in at near bottom!!

This play is locked and loaded. We are predators preying on retail shorts in UJ. The play may happen this week... or next.... or a few weeks from now. We don't know.... but we are aligned to profit from it when it happens. We have to wait for the right opportunity to strike.
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  • #638
  • Edited 3:23pm Mar 8, 2020 3:04pm | Edited 3:23pm
Quoting SentiFX
Coronavirus is a major headline risk right now - which is a major driving force for UJ going south. (JPY is a risk off currency). But also notice that retail is heavily long with UJ for quite some time now. The shorts are in profit (the red line is the average retail shorts) and the longs are in major pain.... should be getting fully stopped out soon or exiting positions (blue line on main chart). We're looking for retail shorts to start adding on the relative sentiment indicator or a Y axis cross on the Sentiment Analysis Tool. Then we are looking...
Speaking about Yen be very careful. IMO BoJ does not like strong Yen especially with respect to current Japan's economy situation. Main macro indicators like GDP , inflation and interest rates are negative. So when Yen should be strengthening more I'd expect some BoJ intervention in form of IE cuts, QE etc. In such case Yen would eventually gets weaker very strongly despite its "safe heaven nature" .

(apologies for unsolicited "advice" )
  • #639
  • Mar 8, 2020 3:57pm Mar 8, 2020 3:57pm
Quoting mcquak
{quote} Speaking about Yen be very careful. IMO BoJ does not like strong Yen especially with respect to current Japan's economy situation. Main macro indicators like GDP , inflation and interest rates are negative. So when Yen should be strengthening more I'd expect some BoJ intervention in form of IE cuts, QE etc. In such case Yen would eventually gets weaker very strongly despite its "safe heaven nature" . (apologies for unsolicited "advice" )
Good tips McQuak and even more the reason to be stalking long opportunity
  • #640
  • Mar 8, 2020 6:41pm Mar 8, 2020 6:41pm
To answer some questions Im getting for going long UJ:

We are waiting for retail to get squeezed and start shorting. Relative sentiment will show this.

MMs must also tip their hands with responsive buying shown as a P in market profile or a structural change (new structure high)

Its important to either be on the train or wait for the train to change direction. Dont get in front of it like typical retail does.
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