I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
{quote} Ef, great excellent stats, I have been caught but trying to position for what I could only call a walk down, remember the last time I was involved with a Dow fall the snapback was just as lucrative, posted my entry on both indexes, never expected the 225 to go so quick, this could all carry on (the fall that is) but as I've said in the past, I can only try to chart for trading purposes. Based on your stats the 1 day entry yielded the best return of the recovery, if this turns as of now we may be in line, another day may break the cycle?...
The 1 day average return I posted is deceiving because two of the days included in the table had over a 10% return. I actually thought my formula was wrong when I saw that, but I verified it was correct and they were 2 of the top 5 highest returns in history. That was mid recession though when efforts were being made to quell the crisis. There's no quick fix for the coronavirus so that kind of upside potential doesn't exist.
Based on my 15 years in the markets, I really think this has further to go. The panic you see at market bottoms just isn't there yet. The past couple days have been a slow sell off, and what I think is happening is asset managers already decided to sell but they're going slow for liquidity reasons. You can't just enter in a trillion dollar market order and have it fill...
My best guess at this juncture is we get a 15-20% drawdown from the highs. The Fed will probably cut again and the market figures out it isn't the end of the world, then marches back higher. I think we see over 40 in the VIX and probably over 50. We might need an intraday drawdown in the order of 7% to really set a bottom. That said, I think there's tail-risk here this causes a recession and the market drops over 35%.
At the moment I'm 60% long and 40% in cash. I'd feel a lot better if I were around 70% in cash right now and may cut exposure tomorrow. I still need to do more research before making any moves.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
- #1,403
- Feb 25, 2020 10:41pm Feb 25, 2020 10:41pm
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
Still think the 225 has a rise there, if so looking for the Dow by proxy, and proxy proxy WTI
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
- #1,404
- Feb 25, 2020 10:54pm Feb 25, 2020 10:54pm
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
{quote} Thanks detector!
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
- #1,406
- Feb 25, 2020 11:17pm Feb 25, 2020 11:17pm
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
Off to bed now, only 2 nights to go then long weekend, Ef, what is you do if you don't mind me asking, my first though when you asked was to say I was pilot or dolphin trainer
but this is the sort of chat I keep for down the pub see you all soon, D
but this is the sort of chat I keep for down the pub see you all soon, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
- #1,407
- Feb 25, 2020 11:32pm Feb 25, 2020 11:32pm
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,931 Posts
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
- #1,408
- Feb 25, 2020 11:47pm Feb 25, 2020 11:47pm
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
Morning Li, hope your well, yeah, worst drop in history, only hope we never see another in our lifetime, that said, if WTI falls I'm a gonner, speak soon, off to bed, hope you catch all them pips today, stay green, D
, speak soon, off to bed, hope you catch all them pips today, stay green, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
- #1,409
- Feb 25, 2020 11:49pm Feb 25, 2020 11:49pm
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,931 Posts
{quote} Morning Li, hope your well, yeah, worst drop in history, only hope we never see another in our lifetime, that said, if WTI falls I'm a gonner
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
- #1,410
- Feb 25, 2020 11:52pm Feb 25, 2020 11:52pm
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
{quote} Morning champ WTI is near triple bottom so hope you make some money
D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
- #1,411
- Feb 25, 2020 11:56pm Feb 25, 2020 11:56pm
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,931 Posts
{quote} Think my entry was a little poor but could have far to run, keep an eye on the Japan 225, bouncing off a rising trend, thing it could do well, seem the olympics have not been cancelled and Tokyo hosting them, stay good my friend and c y soon,
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
The S&P 500 is down 6.3% over the past two trading days. I did a study tonight to see how the market did going forward 1, 5, and 30 days when the market was down over 6% over any two day period since 2007. Here are the results: {image} Apparently being down this much is fairly bullish going forward, but it is unnerving to see so many 2008 dates included.(Note: I would have liked to have gone back further than 2007, but that's all Yahoo! Finance provides for R so I'll work on finding another source in the future.)
rennstimp
- #1,414
- Feb 26, 2020 11:58am Feb 26, 2020 11:58am
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,931 Posts
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
- #1,415
- Feb 26, 2020 2:21pm Feb 26, 2020 2:21pm
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Still a total mystery | 3,569 Posts
{quote} Think my entry was a little poor but could have far to run, keep an eye on the Japan 225, bouncing off a rising trend, thing it could do well, seem the olympics have not been cancelled and Tokyo hosting them, stay good my friend and c y soon,
Because times are such that we do not know when the next big news will happen either about RECOVERY or about NEW escalation that could (down or up) SPIKE the market at least temporary Can you afford to take that chance?
Off to bed now, only 2 nights to go then long weekend, Ef, what is you do if you don't mind me asking, my first though when you asked was to say I was pilot or dolphin trainer
{quote} Quality post
{quote} I dont think anyone truly knows the scale of the virus, I closed my VIX orders last night. Part of me wishes I held onto the orders just for awhile longer, but still waiting for fed to make move personally. That being said, really interested to see what happens at NYSE open
Trading VIX derivatives can get complicated and might not track the cash VIX well.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
- #1,417
- Feb 26, 2020 6:21pm Feb 26, 2020 6:21pm
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
Back in to the 225, 22031 and Dow 26724, for another speculative bounce, D
EDIT, will be keeping this tight, don't want another episode
EDIT, will be keeping this tight, don't want another episode
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
- #1,418
- Feb 26, 2020 6:39pm Feb 26, 2020 6:39pm
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
{quote} Man, I think that ANY entry that brings money in this market is pure GOLD and/or OIL
D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
- #1,419
- Feb 26, 2020 7:06pm Feb 26, 2020 7:06pm
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
Back in to the 225, 22031 and Dow 26724, for another speculative bounce, D EDIT, will be keeping this tight, don't want another episode
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
- #1,420
- Feb 27, 2020 12:30am Feb 27, 2020 12:30am
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,