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  • #1,401
  • Feb 26, 2020 12:26am Feb 26, 2020 12:26am
Speculative long WTI 50.04
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #1,402
  • Feb 26, 2020 12:41am Feb 26, 2020 12:41am
Quoting detector
{quote} Ef, great excellent stats, I have been caught but trying to position for what I could only call a walk down, remember the last time I was involved with a Dow fall the snapback was just as lucrative, posted my entry on both indexes, never expected the 225 to go so quick, this could all carry on (the fall that is) but as I've said in the past, I can only try to chart for trading purposes. Based on your stats the 1 day entry yielded the best return of the recovery, if this turns as of now we may be in line, another day may break the cycle?...
Thanks detector!

The 1 day average return I posted is deceiving because two of the days included in the table had over a 10% return. I actually thought my formula was wrong when I saw that, but I verified it was correct and they were 2 of the top 5 highest returns in history. That was mid recession though when efforts were being made to quell the crisis. There's no quick fix for the coronavirus so that kind of upside potential doesn't exist.

Based on my 15 years in the markets, I really think this has further to go. The panic you see at market bottoms just isn't there yet. The past couple days have been a slow sell off, and what I think is happening is asset managers already decided to sell but they're going slow for liquidity reasons. You can't just enter in a trillion dollar market order and have it fill...

My best guess at this juncture is we get a 15-20% drawdown from the highs. The Fed will probably cut again and the market figures out it isn't the end of the world, then marches back higher. I think we see over 40 in the VIX and probably over 50. We might need an intraday drawdown in the order of 7% to really set a bottom. That said, I think there's tail-risk here this causes a recession and the market drops over 35%.

At the moment I'm 60% long and 40% in cash. I'd feel a lot better if I were around 70% in cash right now and may cut exposure tomorrow. I still need to do more research before making any moves.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,403
  • Feb 26, 2020 12:41am Feb 26, 2020 12:41am
Still think the 225 has a rise there, if so looking for the Dow by proxy, and proxy proxy WTI
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #1,404
  • Feb 26, 2020 12:54am Feb 26, 2020 12:54am
Quoting EF5
{quote} Thanks detector! The 1 day average return I posted is deceiving because two of the days included in the table had over a 10% return. I actually thought my formula was wrong when I saw that, but I verified it was correct and they were 2 of the top 5 highest returns in history. That was mid recession though when efforts were being made to quell the crisis. There's no quick fix for the coronavirus so that kind of upside potential doesn't exist. Based on my 15 years in the markets, I really think this has further to go. The panic you...
Call me a cynic, think the virus gave a good reason to fold the market down, do think it has very little effect but before the "comment" (not from you Ef) "take a look around", I think the market has seen an opportunity and used it, this way burying bad news within, when the virus is topped, back in for the rise, only my opinion, I shudder at the thought of 35% drop, urrggghhh, it amazes me how not so long ago this was at 11k, it left the FTSE in the dust, FTSE never moved and they can suggest recession, how much distance does it need to leave all that behind!!, another great post and research Ef
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #1,405
  • Feb 26, 2020 1:14am Feb 26, 2020 1:14am
Quoting detector
{quote} Call me a cynic, think the virus gave a good reason to fold the market down, do think it has very little effect but before the "comment" (not from you Ef) "take a look around", I think the market has seen an opportunity and used it, this way burying bad news within, when the virus is topped, back in for the rise, only my opinion, I shudder at the thought of 35% drop, urrggghhh, it amazes me how not so long ago this was at 11k, it left the FTSE in the dust, FTSE never moved and they can suggest recession, how much distance does it need to...
If this were 3 years ago I'd stay long without hesitation. I'd ride out a 20% drawdown as-is, it's that potential 50% drawdown I can't stomach. My primary concern is that we're nearing a recession anyway and there's potential this puts us over the edge. The yield curve was inverted well prior to this virus coming about and employment has been showing signs of weakness. Now, factor in the containment efforts from the coronavirus and in my judgement the potential exists for it to cause a lot of economic damage. The virus itself probably isn't that bad economically speaking, but shutting down cities and international trade is harmful.

Just to be 100% clear, I have no edge when it comes to viruses and I don't claim to have an above-average understanding of how viruses spread.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,406
  • Feb 26, 2020 1:17am Feb 26, 2020 1:17am
Off to bed now, only 2 nights to go then long weekend, Ef, what is you do if you don't mind me asking, my first though when you asked was to say I was pilot or dolphin trainer but this is the sort of chat I keep for down the pub see you all soon, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #1,407
  • Feb 26, 2020 1:32am Feb 26, 2020 1:32am
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,408
  • Feb 26, 2020 1:47am Feb 26, 2020 1:47am
Quoting Ll1979
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZP95ZZ7xc4
Morning Li, hope your well, yeah, worst drop in history, only hope we never see another in our lifetime, that said, if WTI falls I'm a gonner, speak soon, off to bed, hope you catch all them pips today, stay green, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #1,409
  • Feb 26, 2020 1:49am Feb 26, 2020 1:49am
Quoting detector
{quote} Morning Li, hope your well, yeah, worst drop in history, only hope we never see another in our lifetime, that said, if WTI falls I'm a gonner, speak soon, off to bed, hope you catch all them pips today, stay green, D
Morning champ WTI is near triple bottom so hope you make some money
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,410
  • Feb 26, 2020 1:52am Feb 26, 2020 1:52am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Morning champ WTI is near triple bottom so hope you make some money
Think my entry was a little poor but could have far to run, keep an eye on the Japan 225, bouncing off a rising trend, thing it could do well, seem the olympics have not been cancelled and Tokyo hosting them, stay good my friend and c y soon, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #1,411
  • Feb 26, 2020 1:56am Feb 26, 2020 1:56am
Quoting detector
{quote} Think my entry was a little poor but could have far to run, keep an eye on the Japan 225, bouncing off a rising trend, thing it could do well, seem the olympics have not been cancelled and Tokyo hosting them, stay good my friend and c y soon, D
Sleep well!
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,412
  • Feb 26, 2020 4:49am Feb 26, 2020 4:49am
Quoting EF5
The S&P 500 is down 6.3% over the past two trading days. I did a study tonight to see how the market did going forward 1, 5, and 30 days when the market was down over 6% over any two day period since 2007. Here are the results: {image} Apparently being down this much is fairly bullish going forward, but it is unnerving to see so many 2008 dates included. (Note: I would have liked to have gone back further than 2007, but that's all Yahoo! Finance provides for R so I'll work on finding another source in the future.)
Quality post
rennstimp
  • #1,413
  • Feb 26, 2020 5:06am Feb 26, 2020 5:06am
Quoting EF5
{quote} If this were 3 years ago I'd stay long without hesitation. I'd ride out a 20% drawdown as-is, it's that potential 50% drawdown I can't stomach. My primary concern is that we're nearing a recession anyway and there's potential this puts us over the edge. The yield curve was inverted well prior to this virus coming about and employment has been showing signs of weakness. Now, factor in the containment efforts from the coronavirus and in my judgement the potential exists for it to cause a lot of economic damage. The virus itself probably isn't...
I dont think anyone truly knows the scale of the virus, I closed my VIX orders last night. Part of me wishes I held onto the orders just for awhile longer, but still waiting for fed to make move personally.

That being said, really interested to see what happens at NYSE open
rennstimp
  • #1,414
  • Feb 26, 2020 1:58pm Feb 26, 2020 1:58pm
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,415
  • Feb 26, 2020 4:21pm Feb 26, 2020 4:21pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Think my entry was a little poor but could have far to run, keep an eye on the Japan 225, bouncing off a rising trend, thing it could do well, seem the olympics have not been cancelled and Tokyo hosting them, stay good my friend and c y soon, D
Man, I think that ANY entry that brings money in this market is pure GOLD and/or OIL Because times are such that we do not know when the next big news will happen either about RECOVERY or about NEW escalation that could (down or up) SPIKE the market at least temporary
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #1,416
  • Feb 26, 2020 4:37pm Feb 26, 2020 4:37pm
Quoting detector
Off to bed now, only 2 nights to go then long weekend, Ef, what is you do if you don't mind me asking, my first though when you asked was to say I was pilot or dolphin trainer but this is the sort of chat I keep for down the pub see you all soon, D
I'm an investor. I have a day job to maintain a stable income, but I do well enough through this and real estate holdings.

Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} Quality post
Thanks

Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} I dont think anyone truly knows the scale of the virus, I closed my VIX orders last night. Part of me wishes I held onto the orders just for awhile longer, but still waiting for fed to make move personally. That being said, really interested to see what happens at NYSE open
How are you trading the VIX? Through futures?

Trading VIX derivatives can get complicated and might not track the cash VIX well.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,417
  • Feb 26, 2020 8:21pm Feb 26, 2020 8:21pm
Back in to the 225, 22031 and Dow 26724, for another speculative bounce, D
EDIT, will be keeping this tight, don't want another episode
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dj225.png Size: 39 KB
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #1,418
  • Feb 26, 2020 8:39pm Feb 26, 2020 8:39pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Man, I think that ANY entry that brings money in this market is pure GOLD and/or OIL Because times are such that we do not know when the next big news will happen either about RECOVERY or about NEW escalation that could (down or up) SPIKE the market at least temporary
Auric, if and when this "good news" arrives we shall probably see "history" rewrote in the biggest rise ever, we've had the biggest fall, only my opinion, have been wrong, many times on this board up to nowD
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #1,419
  • Feb 26, 2020 9:06pm Feb 26, 2020 9:06pm
Quoting detector
Back in to the 225, 22031 and Dow 26724, for another speculative bounce, D EDIT, will be keeping this tight, don't want another episode {image}
Looking for the bounce to start, if not will be looking at closing, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #1,420
  • Feb 27, 2020 2:30am Feb 27, 2020 2:30am
Quoting detector
{quote} Looking for the bounce to start, if not will be looking at closing, D
Still in and going to let it run if I can take the strain, if all fails will be sitting out until this all blows over, too many falling knives, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
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