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  • #1,163,041
  • Feb 25, 2020 1:32pm Feb 25, 2020 1:32pm
There is sentiment and COT and supply/demand area. This move up need to be careful. This can be accumulating so the price will push down more and get all the buyers stop losses. I am on bearish side long term, and will hold my positions until I decide to take profit.
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File Type: xlsx COT2.xlsx   10 KB | 217 downloads
  • #1,163,042
  • Feb 25, 2020 1:33pm Feb 25, 2020 1:33pm
I think $JY is botoming now at 110 to 109.82 area

and E. toping soon , not much higher than 1.08.85
  • #1,163,043
  • Feb 25, 2020 1:42pm Feb 25, 2020 1:42pm
Quoting F.g
I think $JY is botoming now at 110 to 109.82 area and E. toping soon , not much higher than 1.08.85
Hope so, next supports may be important if turmoils again, hope not. Take care
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #1,163,044
  • Feb 25, 2020 2:06pm Feb 25, 2020 2:06pm
H= 1.09 905 fttb..... Short with SL x8.91
  • #1,163,045
  • Feb 25, 2020 2:12pm Feb 25, 2020 2:12pm
Noted that US session provided buy opportunity to go long whereas Euro session gave me nothing. Didn’t trade this anyway, BUT now things look a little clearer. Possible sell area up here, but personally I would rather wait for new cycle to start
  • #1,163,046
  • Edited 5:37pm Feb 25, 2020 3:14pm | Edited 5:37pm
Waiting to see if these comes back to R38 between now and the morning before entering another long. Typically when using pivots, a retrace occurs from R61 to R38 resulting in a quick profit between the 2 pivots. As always will use my other indicators to tell me if entry is valid.
Update:
Decided to not play the pivots and just wait until morning for indicators to provide direction. At this moment I am looking for a long entry in the early morning.
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"What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end."-Warren Buffet
  • #1,163,047
  • Edited 5:11pm Feb 25, 2020 4:29pm | Edited 5:11pm
Can EUR/USD fall much deeper? Yes. But I believe a correction is long overdue. It appears that time has come.

If indeed, this is a correction, then I am expecting EUR/USD to make its way to the Point of Control (red line) on the following chart.

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Also notice the Divergence on the Daily chart (such signals on higher time frames are more reliable).

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It's also important to note that massive buy orders are awaiting at lower prices, as indicated on Oanda's Order book (blue lines to your right on the image). Do not make the mistake of assuming these buyers won't defend their positions.
Source: https://www1.oanda.com/forex-trading...rex-order-book
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Sentiment has been mentioned. And it's important to pay attention to this. However, even experts on Sentiment are not in agreement at this time.

Sentiment from FXSSI (the arrow down on EUR/USD indicates they believe it will go down)
Source: https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio
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Sentiment from Dailyfx (they are bullish on EUR/USD)
Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
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It's also noteworthy to mention the recent commentary given by Dailyfx on Sentiment concerning EUR/USD
Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment-report
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The COT report has been mentioned. This is an excellent indicator. But it's not infallible, nor does it mean that just because it shows more shorts on the Euro than longs that EUR/USD will inevitably go down.
Source: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm
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To the contrary, the Euro is starting to show strength, as seen in the following image.
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I will have to continue this post, as I have reached the maximum amount of images I can put in this one.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,163,048
  • Edited 5:13pm Feb 25, 2020 4:47pm | Edited 5:13pm
Continued from HERE

Even though CFTC shows USD as having more longs than shorts, weakness is starting to show in USD.
Source: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deanybtsf.htm
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I was wondering if this drop with USD could have been the result of NEWS scheduled for today. Though important, the news that came out today certainly didn't justify such a drop.
Source: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#detail=113932
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So I did some more digging and found out that there is a correlation between USD and the DOW Jones Industrial Index. And look at this!
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"The value of American stocks, especially those that are included in market indexes, tend to increase along with the demand for U.S. dollars – in other words, they have a positive correlation." — Investopedia
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...orrelation.asp

So it appears to me that EUR/USD is on the verge of a correction.

Having said that, if price continues to move higher, I am expecting to see a retracement. It could retrace to the demand area (in pink) on the following chart, and then proceed to go up from there.
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Technical analysis does not deal in absolutes but in probabilities. Having said that, based on the information I have seen, I believe it is more probable we will continue moving up than down. But ultimately, I think we will eventually go much deeper at some point.

This is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,163,049
  • Feb 25, 2020 5:17pm Feb 25, 2020 5:17pm
Quoting here2there
Can EUR/USD fall much deeper? Yes. But I believe a correction is long overdue. It appears that time has come. If indeed, this is a correction, then I am expecting EUR/USD to make its way to the Point of Control (red line) on the following chart. {image} Also notice the Divergence on the Daily chart (such signals on higher time frames are more reliable). {image} It's also important to note that massive buy orders are awaiting at lower prices, as indicated on Oanda's Order book (blue lines to your right on the image). Do not make the mistake of assuming...
What's your rsi setting??
  • #1,163,050
  • Feb 25, 2020 5:22pm Feb 25, 2020 5:22pm
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yes yes yes
  • #1,163,051
  • Feb 25, 2020 5:27pm Feb 25, 2020 5:27pm
Quoting 917643
{quote} What's your rsi setting??
Period 14 in the image displayed in my analysis.

Note: I prefer period 4, as it tends to give more signals. But the fact that it is period 14 and showing divergence on a higher time frame such as the Daily, is worthy of mentioning.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,163,052
  • Feb 25, 2020 5:40pm Feb 25, 2020 5:40pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Period 14 in the image displayed in my analysis. Note: I prefer period 4, as it tends to give more signals. But the fact that it is period 14 and showing divergence on a higher time frame such as the Daily, is worthy of mentioning.
Is it apply to close or other setting?
  • #1,163,053
  • Feb 25, 2020 5:44pm Feb 25, 2020 5:44pm
Quoting 917643
{quote} Is it apply to close or other setting?
Close.

And here is a tip for you: If you want to better see divergence on your chart with RSI, switch to a line chart.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,163,054
  • Feb 25, 2020 5:45pm Feb 25, 2020 5:45pm
Quoting here2there
Continued from HERE Even though CFTC shows USD as having more longs than shorts, weakness is starting to show in USD. Source: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deanybtsf.htm {image} {image} {image} I was wondering if this drop with USD could have been the result of NEWS scheduled for today. Though important, the news that came out today certainly didn't justify such a drop. Source: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#detail=113932 {image}...
The issue longs have right now is that the coronavirus is affecting the economy already and it could get a lot worse, dollar in this case is a safe haven. This is why I can't trust technical analysis right now.
  • #1,163,055
  • Feb 25, 2020 5:50pm Feb 25, 2020 5:50pm
Quoting investing101
{quote} The issue longs have right now is that the coronavirus is affecting the economy already and it could get a lot worse, dollar in this case is a safe haven. This is why I can't trust technical analysis right now.
That could have something to do with fluctuations in price, but I don't think its impact on EUR/USD is as profound as one might believe. EUR/USD has been long overdue for a correction. USD, also.

And by the way, USD is currently losing value.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,163,056
  • Feb 25, 2020 7:33pm Feb 25, 2020 7:33pm
If we get a tap above 0900 I may well try some shorts.
Otherwise standing aside, but a correction is due.
Don’t want to be a bull right now.
  • #1,163,057
  • Feb 25, 2020 10:36pm Feb 25, 2020 10:36pm
Actually the pullback from the recent high is fairly significant. If we consolidate down here then it’s a definite no-trade as the banks will figure out their next moves
  • #1,163,058
  • Feb 25, 2020 11:32pm Feb 25, 2020 11:32pm
my mind got diverted by a rotten guy talking volumes and i stopped using my tried and tested long term trading technique
  • #1,163,059
  • Feb 25, 2020 11:38pm Feb 25, 2020 11:38pm
Q1 opened t 1210

lets see what eu does next
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  • #1,163,060
  • Feb 25, 2020 11:51pm Feb 25, 2020 11:51pm
waiting a good push over 1.0925 and usdx in a bear set up for 98.57 next level support
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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