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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #46,721
  • Feb 23, 2020 6:29am Feb 23, 2020 6:29am
Nasdaq closed above its 20 day.
S&P just about below.
Dow well below.
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  • #46,722
  • Edited 9:05am Feb 23, 2020 8:37am | Edited 9:05am
i´ll continue to do what i´m used to do: buying the dip. in order to give a correct picture of what that has been this week, i´ll go more into details since there have been some concerns (or happiness, depending of whom it was).

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payed dividends:

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still have a lot up my sleeve what i can use as collateral/transfer cash. might sell some kilos of physical gold tomorrow since it made a seven years high on euro, good time to re-balance portfolio. will buy stocks which i do not own like fang.

i ´ve said it several times: btd is a deep pocket game. overall dd in relation to what i have on my hands is still far below 20%. so no reason to panic. no need to have a hard sl.

buy when blood is on the streets. this whole corona virus hysteria reminds me of 12 monkeys. dystopian times where dooms day prophets scrimmage.

be greedy when others are fearful

rants off - good luck whatever you do.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,723
  • Feb 23, 2020 8:47am Feb 23, 2020 8:47am
Will be interesting to get a detailed view from you D1.

I wonder if price is going back to that 28.2k region...
  • #46,724
  • Feb 23, 2020 8:58am Feb 23, 2020 8:58am
Quoting Neogenesis
Will be interesting to get a detailed view from you D1. I wonder if price is going back to that 28.2k region...
maybe i´ll do so. that´s possible. as long as it´ll not exceed -10% from ath, technically spoken it´s just a correction and not a crash.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,725
  • Feb 23, 2020 9:22am Feb 23, 2020 9:22am
Quoting deltaone
i´ll continue to do what i´m used to do: buying the dip. in order to give a correct picture of what that has been this week, i´ll go more into details since there have been some concerns (or happiness, depending of whom it was). {image} payed dividends: {image} still have a lot up my sleeve what i can use as collateral/transfer cash. might sell some kilos of physical gold tomorrow since it made a seven years high on euro, good time to re-balance portfolio. will buy stocks which i do not own like fang. i ´ve said it several times: btd is a deep pocket...
d1 - surely there is a monumental difference between buying the dip and buying all the way down? which is what you seem to be doing.

as for the coronavirus I do believe you are very wrong but it’s a pointless debate & only one time will reveal as it’s still very much unknown, however if you think China would risk ruining their economy for anything shy of serious I do believe that’s incredibly naïeve.

it would be really good to hear your views / detailed analysis on the candles... certainly interested.
Que Sera
  • #46,726
  • Feb 23, 2020 9:23am Feb 23, 2020 9:23am
Quoting Neogenesis
Will be interesting to get a detailed view from you D1. I wonder if price is going back to that 28.2k region...
working on an answer. will take some time...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,727
  • Feb 23, 2020 9:54am Feb 23, 2020 9:54am
I have circa 2793X in mind for this current dip.
Que Sera
  • #46,728
  • Feb 23, 2020 10:14am Feb 23, 2020 10:14am
not a friend of long postings, but here it is: my view.

technical: monthly is still bullish, same is quarterly. regarding weekly, it´s too early to judge. daily is bearish. many long term investors take a look at the 200-d-line. you should do the same.

fundamental: TINA there is no alternative (no other asset). many instis are heavily underweighted in stocks. bond and money markets are dead asset classes in a ZIRP environment. most societies have in general a need of pension funds for those who will retire in the future, and those pension funds, esp. life insurers, need higher than zero after tax after inflation ROI in order to meet their asset/liabilities management goals. same is true for private investors/savers, all are victims of the financial repression - and the only way out is the stock market (maybe real estate, but that asset class is also high valued and more important: illiquid and therefore not really a solution for the above described problem). gold is in my view only a worst case scenario insurance, bears no interest and is for this reason also no solution for many instis - but a hedge.

CB´s will continue unorthodox monetary policy, and the more the outlook gets shady, the more they will act to second the economy.

political: given the corona effect, it´s almost likely that trade wars which had been the most dangerous threat to markets in the past several months, will fade away. geo-political shocks might be a short term reason (if they occur) for a big dive, but this is like trying to forecast the black swan event which is by definition impossible (read nassim taleb about this if interested). in addition, i don´t think any country will risk a war with a virus threat, so geo-political threats to markets will stay at the current level or will get less likely during the epidemic.

situational: IF corona virus gets really worse, economy will be effected by far more than at the moment. if not, things will return to normal, and stock markets will rise at least after a dip due to the dip in business cycle. mortality in all countries is below the flu, and all are working on a medical solution. i´optimistic by nature, and i don´t fear this. hence i´ll buy the dip.

on a separate note:
@catempire: time will tell if that´s what i´m doing is not buying the dip but buying all the way down. no one has seen the future by now. not you, not me, no other. i´ve stated my arguments and i know i´m alone with this point of view, but i don´t care. "the strong man is mightiest alone" i´ve made a million this month alone this way and i will continue to follow my way.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,729
  • Feb 23, 2020 10:51am Feb 23, 2020 10:51am
Delta appreciate the reply:

“
on a separate note:
@catempire: time will tell if that´s what i´m doing is not buying the dip but buying all the way down. no one has seen the future by now. not you, not me, no other. i´ve stated my arguments and i know i´m alone with this point of view, but i don´t care. "the strong man is mightiest alone" i´ve made a million this month alone this way and i will continue to follow my way. “

no one has seen the future.. however it’s not impossible to make educated guesses based on a vast array of information available, history, market dynamics and the psychology within it. The candles represent the past psychology of buyers and sellers, based on many different components, however they are lagging to the psychology itself.

I think in many ways you’ve just answered the reason as to why you are (imo) buying on the way down:

”IF corona virus gets really worse.”

this isn’t a Fed or political controllable situation, the virus has shown the possibility of having a 24 day incubation period where it can be transmitted without showing any signs or symptoms. It is impossible to contain it.

millan fashion week has just been called off, 130 cases in itialy and 2 deaths all within a week.

buyers & big money don’t like “ ifs “
Que Sera
  • #46,730
  • Feb 23, 2020 10:53am Feb 23, 2020 10:53am
The “strongest” man is mightiest alone....

couldn’t agree anymore.
Que Sera
  • #46,731
  • Edited 11:57am Feb 23, 2020 10:55am | Edited 11:57am
I am trying to gauge how deep this dip will be. Previously it was fear gripping the market, now fear has heightened given corona has breached Italy, and FANG companies are issuing earnings warnings.

For this reason, I do wonder if we are facing a bigger correction than previous. Sadly there’s no major answers.

TA that I look at:

adv/Dec stocks - as with everything, it tends to reach a top/bottom and then seeks homeostasis. It’s at the bottom.

Tick index - despite the downfall, stocks were still ticking up positively for a lot of the session on Thursday and Friday. The tick index gave worse readings with the last correction. But are we at the start?

Value line geometric index - remains bullish.

SPX p/e index - still remains at highs.

Vix - very close to its ceiling of volatility before it seeks homeostasis.

FANG stocks - all declined significantly c3-4%. They lead the indices. History says they won’t drop too much further and they are giving oversold signals (volatility and momentum).

Gold and bonds - massively oversold and usually retrace at this point.

Fear and Greed Index - we are at fear.

TA indicators:
RSI (2) - oversold or nearly oversold. Nasdaq is oversold. Dow doesn’t seem far off.

Mentioned the close below 20ema for Dow while SPX and Nasdaq merely kissed.

MACD just bear crossed

ADX is between 8-10, 25 refers to a significant trend. That would suggest the bearish trend isn’t significant, however... difficult to say where the bad news starts and ends here.

Chaikin Money Flow and On Balance Volume remains significantly above zero line.
  • #46,732
  • Feb 23, 2020 11:20am Feb 23, 2020 11:20am
This highlights the difference in the Tick index low during the retracement in early Feb. Stocks ticked much, much lower than now.

The natural caveat being: what tomorrow’s news may bring, who knows.
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  • #46,733
  • Feb 23, 2020 11:24am Feb 23, 2020 11:24am
Quoting Catempire
Delta appreciate the reply: “ on a separate note: @catempire: time will tell if that´s what i´m doing is not buying the dip but buying all the way down. no one has seen the future by now. not you, not me, no other. i´ve stated my arguments and i know i´m alone with this point of view, but i don´t care. "the strong man is mightiest alone" i´ve made a million this month alone this way and i will continue to follow my way. “ no one has seen the future.. however it’s not impossible to make educated guesses based on a vast array of information available,...
you´re welcome. let´s agree to disagree. twt, we´ll see. you are a bear for your reasons, i´m a bull for mine. you do your thing, i´ll do mine. nothing has changed. and therefore, although i liked the polite and fact based debate, it´s useless to discuss this further. that´s the reason why i´m not interested in discussions, just in executed trades. market will decide, and being on the right side will generate huge profits - this is what it´s all about.

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good luck!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,734
  • Feb 23, 2020 11:27am Feb 23, 2020 11:27am
Adv/Dec volume was almost double during the last retracement too.

Will these things matter if fear really takes hold? Not so sure. But it’s good to review.
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  • #46,735
  • Feb 23, 2020 11:49am Feb 23, 2020 11:49am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} you´re welcome. let´s agree to disagree. twt, we´ll see. you are a bear for your reasons, i´m a bull for mine. you do your thing, i´ll do mine. nothing has changed. and therefore, although i liked the polite and fact based debate, it´s useless to discuss this further. that´s the reason why i´m not interested in discussions, just in executed trades. market will decide, and being on the right side will generate huge profits - this is what it´s all about.
Tbh I enjoy the debates, but agree there is little for either of us to gain, shall we say stubborn with our opinions. But good to hear contrarian views none the less.

lets see what the future holds.

Inserted Video


gl fella
Que Sera
  • #46,736
  • Feb 23, 2020 11:54am Feb 23, 2020 11:54am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Tbh I enjoy the debates, but agree there is little for either of us to gain, shall we say stubborn with our opinions. But good to hear contrarian views none the less. lets see what the future holds. https://youtu.be/tAGnKpE4NCI gl fella
at least we like the same music i guess
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,737
  • Feb 23, 2020 12:07pm Feb 23, 2020 12:07pm
On balance vol summer crashes vs. today. Marker isn’t in the correct place - vol remained in the minus of millions and below its zero line for a while, whereas now it’s +4m and significantly above.

From a TA standpoint, it actually doesn’t look too bad.
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  • #46,738
  • Feb 23, 2020 12:36pm Feb 23, 2020 12:36pm
Quoting Neogenesis
I am trying to gauge how deep this dip will be. Previously it was fear gripping the market, now fear has heightened given corona has breached Italy, and FANG companies are issuing earnings warnings. For this reason, I do wonder if we are facing a bigger correction than previous. Sadly there’s no major answers. TA that I look at: adv/Dec stocks - as with everything, it tends to reach a top/bottom and then seeks homeostasis. It’s at the bottom. Tick index - despite the downfall, stocks were still ticking up positively for a lot of the session on Thursday...
thx for your thoughts. to sum it up: will you be a buyer when brokers offer first prices at midnight cet if there will be a drop?
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,739
  • Feb 23, 2020 12:49pm Feb 23, 2020 12:49pm
I’ve placed a limit order short at the 29k close as the weekend Dow is down 140 points.

While I don’t think a big correction of 10%+ will happen, I do think there’s further downside.

I will buy when there’s some bullish candle breakouts on the daily.
  • #46,740
  • Feb 23, 2020 12:52pm Feb 23, 2020 12:52pm
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