Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

unfreakinbelievable. same here. thx for that!

"if you don´t live for something, you´ll die for nothing!"

off for party now. have a nice evening!

Anyone recall a few years ago 26020 swung down 300 points bounced back to 26000 after gapping up & then the following day dropped 1000 points in short order ?





enjoy your party delta.

Let’s see what unfolds, literally every metric I use is ticking up at the moment.

As always can’t legislate for good ol’ black swans

Indeed. Indicators kind of are until they arnt in a situation where it’s been a bull run for a long time... like now.. that’s why people say you cannot predict the top, however I disagree... by the time most indicators are reading bear it’s already far lower, that’s the thing about the top, imo, it’s more about trying to read the psychology of the situation with longer term trends / timeframe & see how that might develop.

look at it this way.

things are far different now, than they were in December & will be for the foreseeable, the markets reaction can often depend on the mainstream news, yet the situation is still the same despite news for or against a certain situation... if the narrative of doom and gloom hit the papers, media over the weekend then one would expect the market to be marked down, yet realistically if you're ahead of the curve nothing’s changed except the media’s stance.

the knock on effect of the coronavirus, if it turns into a pandemic which, as people far more educated then myself believe it will, has effects that reach out to the smallest corners of the economy and eventually effect almost every single market across the globe.

despite what the fed are doing and have done & will continue to do... the situation was risk off and positive with money flowing in, now it is risk very much on and negative with money flowing in.. with potentially catastrophic consequences.

untold potential repocussions from the developing situation in China, now 80 cases in Beijing, the death toll is quite obviously far higher than we are led to believe & their reaction shows us what we need to know.

like I said yesterday who would be buying shares in Apple, or fb, or Walmart in this situation ?

Against a backdrop of the chart ?

why has gold gone on a huge run this past week ?

& then the ultimate who’s selling with foresight ?

It’s clear imo what’s going to happen, timing it, as ever, isnt so clear, which is where the longer term trends come in & even then, the powers that be need to play ball.

we’ll see.

S&P500 almost vertical since new year, like - there is no global issue developing that could send countries into recession, which will effect everyone, breaks out from its long term, 7 year channel and touched, last night an outer resistance dating back to 2007.

You see it going higher than this, given the broader psychology of the market ??

even the staunchest of bulls could start to see its time to change tack, esp as perhaps for the fed, there a be a time when they stop throwing good money after bad & the market is already far lower by this point & the situation really has developed far reaching angles of the globe.

who knows but I know the pos I’d rather enter, at this point in time......

EVEN if my indicators are telling me to buy

Lastly. I’m expecting February monthly candles to turn red.

just a hunch.

Not to mention big ol Divergence on the macd on the monthly Dow

Guys

Delta you are still holding these shorts....

Longs even it’s late here in uk and I’ve had to many beers.

hope it doesn’t cause you to much damage

Hk50 just bounced off its 50ma on the monthly at confluence with the 25ma on the daily, I would expect we start moving back up from here. Retest of 293XX.

delta you know what you’re doing dunno why I was even concerned.

Low interest rates = low bond yields = investors put money in equities.

Fed confirmed they will continue to inject liquidity.

Everything’s just a pull back ... until the Q1 data comes out!

With respect, you’ve just contradicted yourself.

So we, you, i and I’d imagine mr market..... knows data is going to be shite.... yet you expect the market to WAIT for the Shite data to be released to start pricing it in ? errr.

& if it’s “just a pull back .... until Q1 data comes out” you’re not expecting “just a pull back” from this point ? even tho “Low interest rates = low bond yields = investors put money in equities. Fed confirmed they will continue to inject liquidity.”

makes no sense, if it’s obvious, it gets priced in early, you either think it’s just about the fed pumping liquidity in, or you don’t. Which it isn’t. Buy backs will slow down considerably from this point onwards, data will be shite & there’s an ever growing elephant in the room!

Clearly pointless debating it with you tho, we have starkly different approaches & views, you keep buying, I’ll keep selling & we’ll both see how long it takes to see 28000 or 30000 (I’m confident) even tho the odds are in your favour.

I’d even put a little prop bet on it....

Yikes, an angry person on an Internet forum. That’s novel.

Ignore button pressed. Enjoy your trading and good luck.

ofc. i do. (2200 longs/-500k dd atm) if not, closing it would have been posted here.

Options expire today, you should have a respite early next week. I am not a permabull, far from it, but I recognize the strength of the market currently.

via GIPHY

That’s good to know.

I expect this to pick up, every metric I am tracking is showing good health.

It is Friday and with a spooked market, there might be more profit taking and people choosing not to participate. Hoping there’s no further slides but I am more optimistic about next week.

Well that was a pretty shit debate on the market situation lol, angry ? lol

takes all sorts, certainly won’t mind him being on the other side of my trades.

covered my shorts for today. Just now @ 29079