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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #82,301
  • Feb 19, 2020 11:44am Feb 19, 2020 11:44am
Quoting skumix
Could somebody explain the breakout that happened today ?? I can't see any solid reasons for such big move!!
Japan is for long time in comatose economically and BOJ continues to support via printing money. Lastly, fundamental data was even negative. With COVID-19, Japan could be next in terms of pandemic with Hong-Kong and Singapore. Hence YEN is not seen as a heaven currency for this risk and money is flying to US Equities. By the way, Dollar is the only currency standing up; other others are crushing. Hope it helps.
  • #82,302
  • Feb 19, 2020 1:42pm Feb 19, 2020 1:42pm
Market is insane this month. First the EUR/USD, now this...
So glad I stayed away.
Withdrawal makes your profit real.
  • #82,303
  • Feb 19, 2020 1:49pm Feb 19, 2020 1:49pm
Quoting JayBag
Here's me attempting to hit the head of USDJPY.. well, hope I don't get hit first but considering my height, I should survive .. My exit would be a daily close above 110.082. Major entry that I will be more comfortable with will be a close below 109.381.. Target? that will depend on how much I am content with but overall target is at MTL. Stay Well {image}
Now the JPY has slided and Usd Jpy has soared to 111.466[attach]uSDjPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uSDjPY 111.466.PNG Size: 32 KB
  • #82,304
  • Feb 19, 2020 1:54pm Feb 19, 2020 1:54pm
Quoting skumix
{quote} Come on, really now... It's quite big ... Just taking out retail shorts, It doesn't seem to be a good reason...
Not just small retailers...even most hedge funds are "dumb money". If you follow the news a little...its "Hedge fund blew 10 billion on...", "Fund manager blew 50 billion on...", etc.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #82,305
  • Feb 19, 2020 3:02pm Feb 19, 2020 3:02pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Japan is for long time in comatose economically and BOJ continues to support via printing money. Lastly, fundamental data was even negative. With COVID-19, Japan could be next in terms of pandemic with Hong-Kong and Singapore. Hence YEN is not seen as a heaven currency for this risk and money is flying to US Equities. By the way, Dollar is the only currency standing up; other others are crushing. Hope it helps.
While this is true, and sounds logical, I can't understand the timing and the scale of the move. Covid-19 is not yesterday news, and neither US has amune to it. Also BOJ is printing money a lot time now. No big fundemental news today as well... So why so short term and violent move... That's something I scratch my head all day...
  • #82,306
  • Feb 19, 2020 3:05pm Feb 19, 2020 3:05pm
Quoting skumix
{quote} While this is true, and sounds logical, I can't understand the timing and the scale of the move. Covid-19 is not yesterday news, and neither US has amune to it. Also BOJ is printing money a lot time now. No big fundemental news today as well... So why so short term and violent move... That's something I scratch my head all day...
Too many shorts were accumulated below 110...people kept shorting between 109-110 for weeks...it almost seemed too easy. Thats why I said that next time we break 110, it may spike further above 111, simply because the amount of dumb money in the short trades.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #82,307
  • Feb 19, 2020 3:13pm Feb 19, 2020 3:13pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Too many shorts were accumulated below 110...people kept shorting between 109-110 for weeks...it almost seemed too easy. Thats why I said that next time we break 110, it may spike further above 111, simply because the amount of dumb money in the short trades.
Ok sounds good, but how do you know the amount of shorts that where accumulated? Where do you get this information if I may ask ?
  • #82,308
  • Feb 19, 2020 3:16pm Feb 19, 2020 3:16pm
Quoting skumix
{quote} Ok sounds good, but how do you know the amount of shorts that where accumulated? Where do you get this information if I may ask ?
Myfxbook, oanda and pretty much every broker is posting sentiment numbers. Plus, you get an idea here, too, by just following people and what they trade. Then articles posted here and so called analysts(failed traders). All combined.

And, when there is a very tight range for days...mostly its calm before the storm...and the move won't go in favor of most.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #82,309
  • Feb 19, 2020 3:18pm Feb 19, 2020 3:18pm
Quoting skumix
{quote} While this is true, and sounds logical, I can't understand the timing and the scale of the move. Covid-19 is not yesterday news, and neither US has amune to it. Also BOJ is printing money a lot time now. No big fundemental news today as well... So why so short term and violent move... That's something I scratch my head all day...
Why is today? All currencies are/will have their tour against USD. This week, we got EU, today UJ and GU and may be tonight AU & NU and tomorrow UC. In addition, quarterly GDP was negative on Sunday. GL!
  • #82,310
  • Edited 7:01pm Feb 19, 2020 6:41pm | Edited 7:01pm
Quoting skumix
{quote} Ok sounds good, but how do you know the amount of shorts that where accumulated? Where do you get this information if I may ask ?
sometimes i guess a why can not be given but onlineaddict have been with this view for some time, that 110 was a false top support.. hope he made some ling profits today! ... agree an interesting move today... made a short scalp after fomc news with a tight manual stop, so now out. May have exit the short early, but wary of a bullish continuation today.... took early profit at 0.23 fib
  • #82,311
  • Feb 20, 2020 1:33am Feb 20, 2020 1:33am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Myfxbook, oanda and pretty much every broker is posting sentiment numbers. Plus, you get an idea here, too, by just following people and what they trade. Then articles posted here and so called analysts(failed traders). All combined. And, when there is a very tight range for days...mostly its calm before the storm...and the move won't go in favor of most.
I'm following sentiment very closely, but to me this breakout was absolutely unexpected. I cannot explain from technical or fundamental point of view either.
I guess it's another "deus ex machina". Happens every now and then.
Withdrawal makes your profit real.
  • #82,312
  • Feb 20, 2020 4:02am Feb 20, 2020 4:02am
Oh if only I'd held onto me longs me longs if only I'd held onto my longs....
  • #82,313
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:30am Feb 20, 2020 8:30am
Has reached the target at 112 zones. It was a nice swing, can't complain.

Chart before. February 18, 2020
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UYyDkFQh/

Chart after. Current Market price chart, February 20, 2020
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Nqarpf5g/

Feel free to contact me if you have any questions. Telegram: @Gold_Cartel , or you can join my Telegram free channel https://t.me/goldcartel
"Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news." Bernard Baruch
  • #82,314
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:48am Feb 20, 2020 8:48am
I was waiting for this move for a couple months, been holding massive longs. The fundamentals have been predicting this for some time. Japan keeps stagnating or even negatively growing, while the US is experiencing a strong period of growth that has been ongoing for over a decade now. I won't be surprised if it moves to 115 to 120 by year end if the US economy remains robust.
  • #82,315
  • Feb 20, 2020 11:47am Feb 20, 2020 11:47am
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https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post12765944
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Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #82,316
  • Feb 20, 2020 12:18pm Feb 20, 2020 12:18pm
Quoting Amir_Forex
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post12765944 {image}
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Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #82,317
  • Feb 20, 2020 12:46pm Feb 20, 2020 12:46pm
Quoting Amir_Forex
{quote} . . . {image} {image} {image}
any idea for a reversal point or are you short here for the long time?
  • #82,318
  • Feb 20, 2020 12:59pm Feb 20, 2020 12:59pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} any idea for a reversal point or are you short here for the long time?
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #82,319
  • Feb 23, 2020 10:05am Feb 23, 2020 10:05am
Should i trust it and short the hell out of it ? (weekly basis)

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #82,320
  • Feb 23, 2020 12:39pm Feb 23, 2020 12:39pm
Bonds (and falling yields) are saying yes
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
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