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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #46,221
  • Feb 13, 2020 6:38pm Feb 13, 2020 6:38pm
just closed it for a good little earn..u beauty...got a big short on ASX 200 ..picture 1 hr.. back this arvo
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  • #46,222
  • Feb 13, 2020 6:48pm Feb 13, 2020 6:48pm
Quoting 2be
I wander if DOW will make a PB to 29000 and possibly below before it makes new H. I am establishing Market orders to go long accordingly. Will day trade both ways in the meantime {image} {image}
Do you mean 30k? Yes, it’s certainly heading there. There will be a few bumps on the way.

There’s going to be a lot of volatility in the coming months with corona, end of Q1 data, evolution of Chinese-US trade.

There’s usually a sizeable pullback every few months on the Dow anyway, news just fits into it.
  • #46,223
  • Edited 5:05am Feb 14, 2020 2:35am | Edited 5:05am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Do you mean 30k? Yes, it’s certainly heading there. There will be a few bumps on the way. There’s going to be a lot of volatility in the coming months with corona, end of Q1 data, evolution of Chinese-US trade. There’s usually a sizeable pullback every few months on the Dow anyway, news just fits into it.
this is definitely strong bull market, but some bumps and periods of tighter ranged PA is part of the game.,
Nothing goes in a straight line, traders need to make profit by buying dips in a bull market!

One has to adjust to the percentage moves on DOW, rather than just a number of points, as 100 points even 5/10 years ago was statistically a different move than now. yet the old habits die slowly. For example in 2000/2001 a 50 point SL when DOW was in the region 7000-8000 level gave some breathing space, today the scenario is different, and requires taking into account the fact that DOW is nearing 30000.
I have increased SL to reflect this. 50 points 10 years ago in proportion to the relevant level of Dow price will make it 150/200 points now purely taking into account %tage ratios, yet in capital involved, point is a point but the moves in numbers of points have increased.
Other indices have also increased but not that dramatically as DOW and S&P.
This is a basic stuff, but it might easily escape attention.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #46,224
  • Feb 14, 2020 5:14am Feb 14, 2020 5:14am
good day folks,

closed all dow longs for +60 (+12k) each. "i love this market. i really do!" position flat atm.

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fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,225
  • Feb 14, 2020 5:27am Feb 14, 2020 5:27am
Quoting Goyatrade
{quote} Evening D1, have been lurking for a while here and i have to say ˋˋ hut ab´´!! But also a classic example of money (and experience) makes money! Are you a buyer out of principle or will you also sell when necisary? How do you determine trend? Just curious and learning! Have a nice eve !!
hi Goyatrade,

thx for the kind words. since a while (and for the time being), i´m a buyer out of principle. when my scenario analysis tells me to change, i´ll also sell. but long only until so. will ask your question how to determine trend when i have some time and i´m in the mood.

all the best
d1
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,226
  • Feb 14, 2020 5:32am Feb 14, 2020 5:32am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} hi Goyatrade, thx for the kind words. since a while (and for the time being), i´m a buyer out of principle. when my scenario analysis tells me to change, i´ll also sell. but long only until so. will ask your question how to determine trend when i have some time and i´m in the mood. all the best d1
Delta,
thanks for your reply!
Enjoy the weekend!

GT
  • #46,227
  • Feb 14, 2020 5:34am Feb 14, 2020 5:34am
Despite Powell’s comments about reducing liquidity injections, he also stated that the Fed will pick up again in March, and support the economy if it dips.

Other than the usual dips from news, looks like we are set for a bullish 2020 overall.
  • #46,228
  • Feb 14, 2020 5:40am Feb 14, 2020 5:40am
Quoting darko2010
Hello everyone, I just discovered this thread and will try to contribute productively. I am fairly new to equity indices but I look at Dax, Dow, S&P, Nasdaq and Russel 2000 although I mostly trade Dax and Dow. So long as the Fed and other Central Banks keep printing money, it seems like the plabook is buy the dip but the higher we go, the more money seems necessary to keep the markets going. One exception though, the Russel 2000 failed to make a new higher high from 2018 and would be my preferred short candidate at some point for both technical...
hi darko2010,

welcome to carpe diem. good luck!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,229
  • Feb 14, 2020 5:43am Feb 14, 2020 5:43am
Quoting Caiuss
Not the best time to say hi! But Hi nevertheless. Is this normal in DAX ? Forgive the silly question... new to DAX. Moved to Europe recently and trying to understand it {image}
hi Caiuss,

welcome to carpe diem. yes, when it takes direction, vola is much higher than most of forex and moves go faster and have more room (if you traded that asset class before). good luck!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,230
  • Feb 14, 2020 5:54am Feb 14, 2020 5:54am
Quoting Neogenesis
Despite Powell’s comments about reducing liquidity injections, he also stated that the Fed will pick up again in March, and support the economy if it dips. Other than the usual dips from news, looks like we are set for a bullish 2020 overall.
+election years had been good years statistically if president got re-elected. looking at the political situation in the us, it´s more likely than the antithetic outcome. since 1949, yearly performance for dow had been +10,1% on average although fed had been less aggressive during election period. (source: ig and outcome of more than a decade of own empirical capital market research). history might not repeat itself, but it rhymes they say...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,231
  • Feb 14, 2020 5:58am Feb 14, 2020 5:58am
long 200 @29.466,93
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,232
  • Feb 14, 2020 5:59am Feb 14, 2020 5:59am
Quoting deltaone
long 200 @29.466,93
no sl, tp = +60
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,233
  • Feb 14, 2020 6:10am Feb 14, 2020 6:10am
Quoting Goyatrade
{quote} Delta, thanks for your reply! Enjoy the weekend! GT
you´re welcome. same to you!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,234
  • Feb 14, 2020 6:27am Feb 14, 2020 6:27am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} no sl, tp = +60
Is there a specific reason why you seem to favor 50/60 point targets? Is it a function of ATR or something else based on stats?
Sorry if the question was asked before
  • #46,235
  • Feb 14, 2020 6:37am Feb 14, 2020 6:37am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Is there a specific reason why you seem to favor 50/60 point targets? Is it a function of ATR or something else based on stats? Sorry if the question was asked before
i don´t use atr or look at it. it´s just the way i´ve been trading dow over the past years. learning by doing. i used -20 as sl and +60 for tp. it worked fine. so you can think of it as my own stats right now, although i don´t use hard sl for each trade anymore.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,236
  • Feb 14, 2020 6:46am Feb 14, 2020 6:46am
added 200 @29.484,67. no sl, tp = +60

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  • #46,237
  • Feb 14, 2020 6:49am Feb 14, 2020 6:49am
back to ath is a valid goal in an uptrend. so i´ll go for it.

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fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,238
  • Feb 14, 2020 6:57am Feb 14, 2020 6:57am
I agree - although I am playing it safe and awaiting at least a top or bottom of intraday charts to initiate a move.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the market closes up today though. No bad news in an uptrend - keeps going.
  • #46,239
  • Feb 14, 2020 7:10am Feb 14, 2020 7:10am
added 200 @29.483,49. tp = +60
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #46,240
  • Feb 14, 2020 7:31am Feb 14, 2020 7:31am
added 200 @29.470,43. no sl, tp +60
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