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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #46,181
  • Feb 13, 2020 4:45am Feb 13, 2020 4:45am
Quoting EddyL
Limit order at 13600. SL15.. Catching a knife?
It looks ok from a TA perspective (as I said in previous post; you’ll hit news highs and they will look for a reason to pullback).

In contrast to what Jupiter said, this is where you want to see how the news pans out before jumping in. We are in the middle of a pandemic, better safe than sorry.

I am monitoring and may watch the US open before making a decision.
  • #46,182
  • Feb 13, 2020 4:46am Feb 13, 2020 4:46am
Quoting dcavar
long some @590, stop 570 ...maybe for back to 640 stop +3 now took some off at 625 , for rest stop at 600
stopped out on that
  • #46,183
  • Feb 13, 2020 4:47am Feb 13, 2020 4:47am
Going to buy above 614 and place my stop at or below 582
  • #46,184
  • Feb 13, 2020 4:54am Feb 13, 2020 4:54am
Long Dax @ 13611
  • #46,185
  • Feb 13, 2020 5:09am Feb 13, 2020 5:09am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} It looks ok from a TA perspective (as I said in previous post; you’ll hit news highs and they will look for a reason to pullback). In contrast to what Jupiter said, this is where you want to see how the news pans out before jumping in. We are in the middle of a pandemic, better safe than sorry. I am monitoring and may watch the US open before making a decision.
Yes, agreed. Had another scalp long to 13637. But now I think we will get another leg lower after consolidating.... News wasn't good this morning, which is why I had a bearish bias, plus the technicals were ripe for a move lower.
  • #46,186
  • Feb 13, 2020 5:28am Feb 13, 2020 5:28am
Quoting EddyL
{quote} Yes, agreed. Had another scalp long to 13637. But now I think we will get another leg lower after consolidating.... News wasn't good this morning, which is why I had a bearish bias, plus the technicals were ripe for a move lower.
600-610 is a daily S (formerly R) IMO. If it doesn't hold, it's back to 500.
Also, the virus news is nothing new, just a change of mayor that cleaned the air, not an acceleration of the virus
  • #46,187
  • Feb 13, 2020 5:33am Feb 13, 2020 5:33am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} 600-610 is a daily S (formerly R) IMO. If it doesn't hold, it's back to 500. Also, the virus news is nothing new, just a change of mayor that cleaned the air, not an acceleration of the virus
There was a jump in daily fatalities, plus a lot more new cases, so that's a good excuse to drive the market down ;-)
  • #46,188
  • Feb 13, 2020 5:34am Feb 13, 2020 5:34am
Quoting darko2010
Long Dax @ 13611
I am short from that level. Stop @ BE now. Let's see what happens at 600...
  • #46,189
  • Feb 13, 2020 5:39am Feb 13, 2020 5:39am
Quoting EddyL
{quote} There was a jump in daily fatalities, plus a lot more new cases, so that's a good excuse to drive the market down ;-)
Maybe, but the market already decided it didn't matter on Jan 31st and after. We'll see, but I think shorting after it puked already 200 points is not something I would do in an otherwise bullish pattern. Good luck anyway
  • #46,190
  • Feb 13, 2020 5:51am Feb 13, 2020 5:51am
Quoting darko2010
Long Dax @ 13611
Out @ 13634, morning done :-)
  • #46,191
  • Feb 13, 2020 6:13am Feb 13, 2020 6:13am
I don't know the level of participants here, but if I can share the way I see things and help anyone while structuring my own thought process, it is double jackpot :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #46,192
  • Feb 13, 2020 6:22am Feb 13, 2020 6:22am
Quoting darko2010
I don't know the level of participants here, but if I can share the way I see things and help anyone while structuring my own thought process, it is double jackpot :-) {image}
Nice darko
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #46,193
  • Feb 13, 2020 6:29am Feb 13, 2020 6:29am
Quoting ensale
{quote}Nice darko
Hello friend, long time no see. I hope you are doing well!
  • #46,194
  • Feb 13, 2020 7:04am Feb 13, 2020 7:04am
PA starting to look good, placed another long at 29.3k.
  • #46,195
  • Feb 13, 2020 7:06am Feb 13, 2020 7:06am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Maybe, but the market already decided it didn't matter on Jan 31st and after. We'll see, but I think shorting after it puked already 200 points is not something I would do in an otherwise bullish pattern. Good luck anyway
After stepping away from the screen and thinking about the situation further, I have to agree with you. I think the overriding factor here was that the higher timeframes were all bullish and uptrending (no lower highs put in on any of them yet). So buying the dip at 600 was the right way to go, and the second leg that I was expecting was very unlikely. Good for you, and happy you profited and I didn't talk you out of it ;-)

I made money on the short side this morning, but unfortunately missed buying the dip. Live and learn. Thank you for your thoughts :-)
  • #46,196
  • Feb 13, 2020 7:13am Feb 13, 2020 7:13am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Maybe, but the market already decided it didn't matter on Jan 31st and after. We'll see, but I think shorting after it puked already 200 points is not something I would do in an otherwise bullish pattern. Good luck anyway
Hmm - not true. The market reacted to news this morning.

Institutions use news to crash the market whenever it suits. It’s the ‘whenever it suits’ element which is subjective and means you can’t form a trading bias solely from news.

But you should have an awareness..
  • #46,197
  • Feb 13, 2020 7:15am Feb 13, 2020 7:15am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Out @ 13634, morning done :-)
I really really need to work on my exits... Too much fear after a few bad beats I guess. Any psychological trick from more experienced traders?
  • #46,198
  • Feb 13, 2020 7:18am Feb 13, 2020 7:18am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Hmm - not true. The market reacted to news this morning. Institutions use news to crash the market whenever it suits. It’s the ‘whenever it suits’ element which is subjective and means you can’t form a trading bias solely from news. But you should have an awareness..
Again... It was a minor twist to the story. It is a very strong uptrend. This is different to when you and montygoldy were both buying the dip at the initial stages of the situation. 60m chart already put in a lower high at that point, and the news was just breaking - so it was suicide buying into that ;-) today was different, I think.

Obviously, with trading there are no absolutes.
  • #46,199
  • Edited 7:54am Feb 13, 2020 7:21am | Edited 7:54am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Hmm - not true. The market reacted to news this morning. Institutions use news to crash the market whenever it suits. It’s the ‘whenever it suits’ element which is subjective and means you can’t form a trading bias solely from news. But you should have an awareness..
I agree with you on the market news part, it's just noise compared to PA. Market puked further this morning but PA last night was not overly panicky despite lack of POBC stimulus. Europeans took the opportunity to shake weak hands and, of course, the reaction on hourly S/R was key for me. I am just a newbie, still learning anyway
  • #46,200
  • Edited 8:40am Feb 13, 2020 7:23am | Edited 8:40am
Nah - in the initial stages it wasn’t being reported as a global pandemic.

WHO have recently said this may only be the tip of the iceberg. Don’t assume we are out of the woods on this yet, by any means.

Its not about price action or news. It’s about how quickly fear can grip the market.

Remember it’s Friday tomorrow. If there’s more negative news guess what happens? Huge sell off so nobody holds weekend risk. That can create a 2-3% slide easily.

Again, I am not saying it will (I have two long positions open per my previous posts). But it can and has happened. Risk awareness...
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