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Pivot Trading

  • #34,461
  • Feb 9, 2020 7:36pm Feb 9, 2020 7:36pm
Quoting ikdenk
Update on the coronavirus. Same source as previous video I posted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4Ho96UKfYA
Lets not lose focus on PA
AUD in fact is gaining now.WE should not scare ourselves to the point of not seeing reality in the charts
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,462
  • Feb 9, 2020 8:05pm Feb 9, 2020 8:05pm
Quoting Josti
{quote} A long time ago I was a youth chess champion four years in a row. I don't play much chess now, but I still enjoy playing chess once in a while.. My children want to play against me sometimes, luckily I still win
play speed chess 5min games.It sure wakes your brain up
chess.com
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,463
  • Feb 9, 2020 8:16pm Feb 9, 2020 8:16pm
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} I'm holding a long EJ and I don't think to close it, because I know that Japan's GDP is not very good I see a poll showed on Friday Japan's economy likely shrank at the fastest pace since 2014 in the December quarter. take a look below POLL-Japan's Q4 GDP expected to post largest decline since 2014 {image}
Yes, while their economy is not growing, this points to more Easing in the future. Currently however it seems they are about tied as far as easing and interest are concerned as far as a comparison to the EU. In my thinking, they are about tied in the devaluation of their currencies. This leaves only the pressure on the Yen as a Safe Haven. As Asia is reeling from the coronavirus investors will move their capital into the safest positions they can. Hence the strength in the JPY.

I weigh my macroeconomic projections on a mental scale.

EU
Interest rate: 0%
QE: 720B/year
Balance Sheet: 4.7T
Balance Sheet % increase: 15%
Safe haven status: minor

Japan
Interest rate: -.10%
QE: 80T/year
Balance Sheet: 573T
Balance Sheet % increase: 14%
Safe haven status: strong

Asians will undoubtedly invest more in the Yen as a Safe Haven and this economic crisis is primarily in Asia. If you believe(as I do) the shutdown in China will create a temporary 'risk-off' flight to safe havens, then we should see the JPY strengthen overall in spite of weak economic data and continual Easing.

I chose EUR as the counter pair since it has the least strength to counter this trend. The scale(for now) is tipped in favor of JPY strengthening against the EUR.
  • #34,464
  • Feb 9, 2020 8:20pm Feb 9, 2020 8:20pm
wow over 60pips drop on EA with such short time
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,465
  • Feb 9, 2020 9:11pm Feb 9, 2020 9:11pm
so happy with the rise in AN at the moment
I will get my head around this, but always can be wrong
  • #34,466
  • Feb 10, 2020 12:15am Feb 10, 2020 12:15am
Week is light on Red News with a few highlights. I will look to moderate USD and some red news to move majors. It is more likely the uncertainty around the coronavirus will be a bigger driver, or just create more volatility and opportunity. A stronger CNY CPI today gave strength to the AUD across the board I noticed. Wasn’t able to take advantage though. Hope others did.

Although I am trading successfully here with pivots, I don’t have the length of time with this method to suggest that a lighter news week would provide more range bound opportunities on the crosses like EA, EG, AN, AC, EN.

I’m watching UC, GU, UJ(I usually don’t trade this one), AC, AN mostly but keep my eyes open to other opportunities.

Mon Feb 10
USD FOMC Bowman Speaks – moderate impact. Dovish comments here might begin a selling off of the overbought USD. I am in UC short now and close to WPP now. Looking for a larger move though.
USD FOMC Harker Speaks-low impact.
CAD Housing Starts – forecast at 210K increase from 197.3K.
AUD Home Loans- decrease from 1.8 to .7%. Watch for possible long entry on EA if this moves the pair to S38 area.


TUES Feb 11
GBP – Prelim GDP forecast decrease from .4% to 0%. Will watch closely as this seems likely. If it comes in better than forecast, this might provide the impetus for a GU move north
GDP – BOE Carney speaks – high impact expected.
EUR – LaGarde speaks – will watch for any dovish language
USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks. High impact – a more likely driver for overbought USD and selloffs on GU, EU and AU.
NZD – Official cash rate – likely already priced into the market however will be watching Monetary Policty and Rate statement for clues of future.

WED Feb 12
USD - FED Powell Speaks – expected high impact
NZD - RBNZ Orr Speaks
CAD BOC Poloz Speaks
EUR – German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices – forecast unchanged at 1.6%

THURS Feb 13
USD CPI – forecast unchanged at .2%
USD Core CPI – forecast increase to .2% over .1%
Watching this news closely as a driver for possible correction to overbought USD. The selloff may have taken place already though based on FED Powell comments.

FRI
USD Core Retail Sales –forecast to decrease from.7% to .3%
USD Retail sales – forecast to remain unchanged at .3%
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – moderate news however I have noticed it does drive the market. There are no number forecast
  • #34,467
  • Feb 10, 2020 1:00am Feb 10, 2020 1:00am
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} Before New York session close today, we have more FX option that expiries with thoses prices below: EUR/USD: 1.0960 (526M), 1.1000 (508M), 1.1030-40 (1.3BLN), 1.1090-1.1100 (700M) GBP/USD: 1.3000 (210M), 1.3135 (230M),1.3155 (300M) EUR/GBP: 0.8375 (200M), 0.8450 (400M) USD/CAD: 1.3190 (335M), 1.3250 (230M) AUD/USD: 0.6720 (500M), 0.6750 (1.3BLN),0.6770 (530M) 0.6800-15 (900M) USD/JPY: 109.00 (750M), 109.50 (360M) EUR/JPY: 121.60 (770M)
we have Larger FX option that expiries Before New York session close today
EUR/USD: 1.0950 (580M), 1.1000 (301M), 1.1060-70 (650M)
USD/CHF: 0.9690 (364M), 0.9710 (690M)
GBP/USD: 1.2700 (808M), 1.2900 (376M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8420-25 (650M), 0.8490 (200M)
AUD/USD: 0.6625 (1.4BLN), 0.6750 (920M)
USD/CAD: 1.3050 (655M), 1.3280 (200M)
EUR/JPY: 120.60 (455M)
AUD/JPY: 74.65 (387M), 74.90 (1.5BLN),75.87 (1BLN)
USD/JPY: 108.00 (2BLN), 108.50 (1.1BLN), 109.50 (610M), 109.70 (300M)
  • #34,468
  • Feb 10, 2020 6:31am Feb 10, 2020 6:31am
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} we have Larger FX option that expiries Before New York session close today EUR/USD: 1.0950 (580M), 1.1000 (301M), 1.1060-70 (650M) USD/CHF: 0.9690 (364M), 0.9710 (690M) GBP/USD: 1.2700 (808M), 1.2900 (376M) EUR/GBP: 0.8420-25 (650M), 0.8490 (200M) AUD/USD: 0.6625 (1.4BLN), 0.6750 (920M) USD/CAD: 1.3050 (655M), 1.3280 (200M) EUR/JPY: 120.60 (455M) AUD/JPY: 74.65 (387M), 74.90 (1.5BLN),75.87 (1BLN) USD/JPY: 108.00 (2BLN), 108.50 (1.1BLN), 109.50 (610M), 109.70 (300M)
Hi, ppxdf

I'm not trying to confuse anybody or derail people from weekly pivots but just trying to understand fx options expiration data. I found the video on YT that explains what the concept is and I have also implemented the examples below:

Inserted Video


The first example AU discussed in the video (0.7500 Barrier on 11 Dec 2017)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU 11 DEC 2017 0 7500 BARRIER.png Size: 263 KB


The second one EURJPY (Bullish bat pattern that I'm currently involved in)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY H1 BULLISH BAT PATTERN.png Size: 336 KB


I apologize in advance if this post confuses anyone. No disrespect to ppxdf. I appreciate him sharing something for free that he himself is paying a subscription fee. I'm just trying to make sense of ppxdf's post for myself.

Kindest regards
  • #34,469
  • Feb 10, 2020 7:14am Feb 10, 2020 7:14am
Quoting MrAussieFX
{quote} Hi, ppxdf I'm not trying to confuse anybody or derail people from weekly pivots but just trying to understand fx options expiration data. I found the video on YT that explains what the concept is and I have also implemented the examples below: https://youtu.be/BECu7ac_1f8?t=110 The first example AU discussed in the video (0.7500 Barrier on 11 Dec 2017) {image} The second one EURJPY (Bullish bat pattern that I'm currently involved in) {image} I apologize in advance if this post confuses anyone. No disrespect to ppxdf. I appreciate...
You can get the data here for free daily. If you sign up they will send you a daily email. I like to keep an eye on the levels especially if there is a big expiry and its close to that level, you will sometimes see price on the London open move up above that level and then right after the NY cut start falling. It's not always predictable , however its certainly worth knowing where those levels are at. if its a pair I have my eye on for our pivot trading I mark those levels on my chart. https://www.forexlive.com/Orders
Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #34,470
  • Feb 10, 2020 9:22am Feb 10, 2020 9:22am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Great article thanks for posting.Its something to be aware. AUD is at risk in major way...unless some good news on virus... I had no idea about this. The education sector – at $34bn, revenue from overseas students is Australia’s second biggest export behind iron ore – is also crucial, and again highlights how exposed Australia is if students cannot leave China to start their courses this month.
Good morning Davit.
EXTREMELY GLAD that you posted this information.
I have an observation and that is , I view Australia's Education Sector as an extremely valuable IMPORT because student's must COME TO Australia for their educational benefit and the foreign currencies flow to Australia (students are being imported) , maybe I'm viewing this incorrectly. Iron Ore flows to China , albeit the currency flows back to Australia.
My main focus is this: BOTH are excellent precursor's for a sudden surge of the Aussie once authentic , proven , accurate News Data on the CoronaVirus hits the News Wires.
In my mind , it is the PERFECT STORM in the POSITIVE SENSE.
Love this thread ,
GreenEarth
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #34,471
  • Feb 10, 2020 9:47am Feb 10, 2020 9:47am
Quoting GreenEarth
{quote} Good morning Davit. EXTREMELY GLAD that you posted this information. I have an observation and that is , I view Australia's Education Sector as an extremely valuable IMPORT because student's must COME TO Australia for their educational benefit and the foreign currencies flow to Australia (students are being imported) , maybe I'm viewing this incorrectly. Iron Ore flows to China , albeit the currency flows back to Australia. My main focus is this: BOTH are excellent precursor's for a sudden surge of the Aussie once authentic , proven , accurate...
On virus and AUd I am detecting slight optimism by noting AUD gaining.Could be market is looking ahead like "worse" is behind us..
Markets are always steps ahead.
Fundamentals are important but dont lose sight of charts PA

Powell's testimony tomorrow and weds is key on USD sentiment.
EU is really gunning down aiming cluster of stops on previous strong support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 60 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,472
  • Feb 10, 2020 10:15am Feb 10, 2020 10:15am
Davit , your reply is exactly the way that I was looking at this entire scenario , the tipping point if you will , "the worst is behind us".
Since you and all of the other amazing trader's on this thread have hammered the importance of PA into my brain , it's been absolutely amazing how my trading perspective has changed.
And the "naked" charts , has been a Godsend.
I didn't realize how distracting many indicator's could be in taking my eye OFF OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THING , PRICE ACTION.
Thanks again ,
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #34,473
  • Feb 10, 2020 2:06pm Feb 10, 2020 2:06pm
UJ ranging so I closed another batch may hit it again tonight before Powell
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,474
  • Feb 10, 2020 7:28pm Feb 10, 2020 7:28pm
Two patterns EJ and EU.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJDPH1100220.png Size: 150 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EUDPM30100220.png Size: 101 KB
Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #34,475
  • Feb 11, 2020 1:44am Feb 11, 2020 1:44am
Im in long EC now
  • #34,476
  • Feb 11, 2020 2:32am Feb 11, 2020 2:32am
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} we have Larger FX option that expiries Before New York session close today EUR/USD: 1.0950 (580M), 1.1000 (301M), 1.1060-70 (650M) USD/CHF: 0.9690 (364M), 0.9710 (690M) GBP/USD: 1.2700 (808M), 1.2900 (376M) EUR/GBP: 0.8420-25 (650M), 0.8490 (200M) AUD/USD: 0.6625 (1.4BLN), 0.6750 (920M) USD/CAD: 1.3050 (655M), 1.3280 (200M) EUR/JPY: 120.60 (455M) AUD/JPY: 74.65 (387M), 74.90 (1.5BLN),75.87 (1BLN) USD/JPY: 108.00 (2BLN), 108.50 (1.1BLN), 109.50 (610M), 109.70 (300M)
FX option that expiries Before New York session close today
EUR/USD: 1.0915-20 (1.2BLN), 1.1000-15 (900M), 1.1050-60 (700M)
GBP/USD: 1.2850 (200M), 1.2875 (281M), 1.2900 (200M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8500 (463M)
AUD/NZD: 1.0440 (340M)
AUD/USD: 0.6715-20 (540M)
USD/CAD: 1.3065 (640M), 1.3200 10 (350M),1.3250 (210M)
USD/JPY: 110.00 (500M)
AUD/JPY: 75.00 (550M)
  • #34,477
  • Feb 11, 2020 2:58am Feb 11, 2020 2:58am
Quoting kleybenny
Im in long EC now
Could work but it has fallen over a week straight ... I believe we see lower levels maybe this week already, near S100, this is what I'm looking at. Lagarde speaking later today. Not to mention EC has a killer swap for long, not good for a long hold.
  • #34,478
  • Feb 11, 2020 3:00am Feb 11, 2020 3:00am
Not happy I closed my EA trade too soon. It gave good levels for shorting but I didn't hold on to them long enough.
  • #34,479
  • Feb 11, 2020 3:25am Feb 11, 2020 3:25am
Gbpusd Get Ready!Go
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 23 KB
  • #34,480
  • Feb 11, 2020 4:13am Feb 11, 2020 4:13am
I closed all my positions in one of the most meaningful trade of my entire life. During this EA trade I found a lot of similarities between the EA trade on May 2019 that was one of the main actor that dilapidated my gains ending with nearly -6% on that month.
The conditions were similar, the fundamentals were similar (trade war vs coronavirus), but my approach were different. Now, Oanda doesn't give me the permission to upload trades older than some months, but I remember that after a gap up and a strong pump of EA I panicked and I closed everything. Then, days and weeks after I watched that trade a lot, thinking about what I could have gained if I didn't panicked.
In this last trade I was completely normal. I didn't panicked when EA started to climb. I trusted my edge, my knowledge and my skills to manage every trade that I take. Of course we are not happy when we are in deep DD, but it happens, it's part of this business.
So, this morning I closed all the positions. Not only the DD evaporated, but I gained also 1.7% on the month. Now, watching my chart, different questions come in my mind, "could I had more?", "could I held a little more?"... Of course you can always improve, perfection does not exist, but closing this winning trade in a scenario very similar to my last ruin gives me strenght and motivation to continue to trust the process.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EA feb20.PNG Size: 70 KB
Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
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