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  • #34,441
  • Feb 9, 2020 7:50am Feb 9, 2020 7:50am
Hi guys
As the virus becoming more central stage fear is building up and that follows safe heaven Yen getting the scared money.
UJ short should be looked upon.I suspect after Feds Warning about the Virus it may open with gap down.
Back to 109 or even below likely.
I am anticipating some USD sell off since EU and GU less AU NU were at bottom of their support.GU should start claiming up above 29 likely Euro to move north as well.
Focus should be on these UJ GU EU. NZD may get dumped even more so dont recommend buying.

What you should do every week ask yourself first after looking at charts
1.Is market bullish or bearish on USD
This is important because it sets the stage of the sentiment.Difficulty is often Asia session is not reliable for better sentiment minimum London open should be observed.Once established which way market is heading then you adjust your trades.
This should help eliminating being on wrong side early.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,442
  • Feb 9, 2020 8:05am Feb 9, 2020 8:05am
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} excelent !! {image}
Most dont know but our Brazilian friend here is excellent high ranking player!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,443
  • Feb 9, 2020 8:20am Feb 9, 2020 8:20am
Quoting Davit
Looks like my club of haters are expending Must be doing something right!!! Haters are people who think they know the route to success, but they never actually get in the plane to fly themselves there Hate is often a sign of weakness, envy and fear. Haters hate on you because you’re doing what they cannot, will not or are too afraid to attempt https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...948113&page=62 Most are Former Pivot rejects and my ignore list club members! If these weak individuals think they are somehow hurting me...
Great post telling the truth. Fools and haters are born every day. Fortunately it takes them 20 years before they can join FF and try to cause damage
  • #34,444
  • Feb 9, 2020 8:31am Feb 9, 2020 8:31am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Great post telling the truth. Fools and haters are born every day. Fortunately it takes them 20 years before they can join FF and try to cause damage
Most come here and can't follow direction and get booted out then go do their thing end up losing boatload of cash then get bitter hateful individuals like I rubbed them of their money where the truth is they rubbed themselves.
Some of the incoherent comments are so illogical and downright stupid that you pause and ask yourself why even these guys want to trade(one idiot insists I am using MACD).Trading is very logical endeavor if your mind can't connect the dots in cohesive manner you got no chance.
I can tell from few posts if the guys is deranged or has a fighting chance to make it.Below example of an idiot who has no chance to make it in this business including the clowns at the bottom who liked the post.Goes to show shit attracts the fly.Stupidity finds comfort in stupidity.Below this guy was on Pivots who got booted out....
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,445
  • Feb 9, 2020 8:37am Feb 9, 2020 8:37am
I also am considering USD sell off since I see that Treasury yield projection, that I posted earlier
however, we have to consider this week also Speculators raised their bullish bets on the U.S. dollar for the third straight week, and put DXI high according we can see on this resume below..

-----------------------PREVIOUS JAN 31th-------------------------------------CURRENT FEB 7TH.
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The value of the dollar's net long position, derived from net positions of IMM speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars, was $12.69 billion, this week.
That compares with a net long position of $9.58 billion the previous week
  • #34,446
  • Feb 9, 2020 8:38am Feb 9, 2020 8:38am
My Calendar events week two February

Sharp focus on NZD USD.

Sun
CNY CPI y/y With a positive projection of 4.9% from 4.5%. If green this may give some relief for AUD and NZD. The Coronavirus outbreak still are the main driver for them.

Tues
EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks Due to deliver opening remarks at the presentation of the ECB Annual Report before the European Parliament in Strasbourg. This may or may not drive volatility in the market as Lagarde isn’t expected to extend forward guidance on ECB policy decision.
USD FED Chair Powell Testifies On the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee. The markets will be watching his comments closely to see what he has to say on the potential impact of the coronavirus.
NZD Official Cash Rate Projection is to hold steady at 1.0%
NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
NZD RBNZ Press Conference With a pickup in both GDP growth and inflation at the end of 2019, the RBNZ has little reason to ease policy over the next few months, however, given new factors such as the spread of the coronavirus and Australian bushfires that are likely to slow growth in China and Australia – both close trading partners of New Zealand, the RBNZ may adopt a more cautious tone.

Weds
USD FED Chair Powell Testifies On the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee.
USD Crude Oil Inventories Red here is good for CAD.
NZD RBNZ Gov. Orr Speaks
AUD RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks Due to participate in a panel discussion at the 7th Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum.
CAD BOC Gov. Poloz Speaks The same as above.

Thurs
USD CPI m/m Projection to hold steady at 0.2%.
USD Core CPI m/m Projection of 0.2% from 0.1%.
NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Previous of 49.3.

Fri
EUR German Prelim GDP q/q Projection to hold steady at 0.1%.
USD Core Retail Sales m/m Projection of 0.3% from 0.7%.
USD Retail Sales m/m To hold steady at 0.3%.

Watching for opportunities especially on NZD and USD crosses.
My prime candidates are UJ, UC, NU, AC, AN, EN.

Currently holding some DD on UC shorts.

Let's pile the pips!
"In the end you only trade yourself."
  • #34,447
  • Feb 9, 2020 8:44am Feb 9, 2020 8:44am
Quoting ppxdf
I also am considering USD sell off since I see that Treasury yield projection, that I posted earlier however, we have to consider this week also Speculators raised their bullish bets on the U.S. dollar for the third straight week, and put DXI high according we can see on this resume below.. -----------------------PREVIOUS JAN 31th-------------------------------------CURRENT FEB 7TH. {image} The value of the dollar's net long position, derived from net positions of IMM speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian...
Powell's testimony can change that quickly.It may start bullish exception UJ until Powell testifies then positions get dumped.He testifies Tues Weds
Bottom line US is not immune to China troubles.Apple already shut down all stores in China and I am sure ton of small manufacturing plants as well.Its a global issue and USD happens to be overbought.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,448
  • Feb 9, 2020 8:54am Feb 9, 2020 8:54am
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} Gmo.: is that an atypical movement? In my post https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post12742980 , I realized the moving going down. however, as you show, dxi and futures going up. if we are seeing yelds moving down. This means that currency should move down also., right? Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was going down at 1.4031% in afternoon trading. take a look on this daily chart below {image} 2 hour chart posted on page 1720 {image}
I way be wrong but I think the treasury rate is based on demand...so the more people buying government bonds, the lower the rate goes.

I suppose its just supply and demand....the more investors pile money in to a safe haven like gov bonds the lower the rate will go until investors can find a competitive alternative.
  • #34,449
  • Edited 9:32am Feb 9, 2020 9:09am | Edited 9:32am
Inductive Reasoning

There are two different methods for reasoning, inductive and deductive. While deductive reasoning looks for certainties, inductive reasoning is used when a circumstance is seen as supplying evidence that a conclusion could be true. The belief in a conclusion based on inductive reasoning is highly probable and based on evidence that can be seen and measured but is not 100% certain. Inductive reasoning is a tool for making well informed educated guesses using all the available data and information you have at the time. It doesn’t mean you will be correct but this type of reasoning will give you the best estimation you can make based on the current known facts. Deductive reasoning is a tool you use when you don’t know something to be a fact 100% or you are having to make the best decision in an uncertain environment.
The different types of inductive reasoning:
Generalization: Drawing a general conclusion about all of a group based on an observation. All the chickens I have seen are white, so all chickens must be white.
Statistical: Make a high probability guess based on statistics. If 90% of all chickens are white then out of ten chickens, nine should be white.*
Sample: Making an educated guess about others based on a sample size. If nine out of ten chickens on this farm are white then 90% of chickens will be white on my neighbors farm.
Analogous: Makes a conclusion based on the shared attributes of two types of things. 90% of chickens are white and ducks are birds like chickens so 90% of ducks are probably white too.
Predictive: Makes a conclusion by using a prediction from a past sample of data. When I went to this farm three years ago 90% of the chickens here were white so when I go back tomorrow 90% of the chickens are likely to be white again.
Causal inference: Makes a conclusion using a causal connection. 90% of chickens on this farm are white. I just saw a white bird in the woods behind the farm. The bird I saw was likely a chicken.

Inductive reasoning can be a tool to use for a higher probability of having a correct assumption over randomness. However it can be dangerous when used to see links that are not really there or to assume too much from a limited set of data. In the business, investing, and trading world inductive reasoning must be used a lot of the time because in those environments people must manage so much uncertainty in the future that they can only make the best decisions possible using the available data. The quality of decisions using inductive reasoning are based on the value and real connections of the data to reality.





This goes to heart of trading.Calendar events analyses are basically preparing you set of actions depending outcome of data however based on previous examples of market reactions inductive reasoning is used to connect data to reality.Its basically creating an edge over randomness.

Example if you look past green NFP and market was bullish right after on USD then we can use inductive reasoning to predict market reaction on similar economic conditions to be same.
Same manner if market expects rate cut and similarly starts selling it prior of event then we can conclude likely future markets reactions on other rate cuts.In general market is ahead....of actual important events.Pricing in the event is what usually takes place.Recent example Brexit spike then deflation after the event.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,450
  • Feb 9, 2020 11:17am Feb 9, 2020 11:17am
Quoting Davit
Inductive Reasoning There are two different methods for reasoning, inductive and deductive. While deductive reasoning looks for certainties, inductive reasoning is used when a circumstance is seen as supplying evidence that a conclusion could be true. The belief in a conclusion based on inductive reasoning is highly probable and based on evidence that can be seen and measured but is not 100% certain. Inductive reasoning is a tool for making well informed educated guesses using all the available data and information you have at the time. It doesn’t...
Great post!

This can also be explained in a chess analogy. You can reasonably predict the next move or two of your opponents using these same techniques. However, the farther into the future you are predicting the less accurate your predictions become. You can add to your predictive models the tendencies of your opponents, gaining slightly more accurate predictions, but this will only take you so far.

I often find myself using inductive reasoning to gauge the market and its sentiments and even model its future.
  • #34,451
  • Feb 9, 2020 11:57am Feb 9, 2020 11:57am
Inserted Video
  • #34,452
  • Feb 9, 2020 4:40pm Feb 9, 2020 4:40pm
Quoting ikdenk
Watch this you tube video for the latest news on the corona virus. It has the quadratic (only) model of the spread that the Chinese government uses to allay fears. Also information on the cruise ship in Japan that gives us real data to work from. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ir79...ist=WL&index=3
Excellent story. I work in logistics as a freight broker it has been so slow the last year that I've been actively seeking other things to do. A lot of companies run in a JIT (Just in Time) business model where they cut things to the bone and trucks become their warehouses and critical parts supplies that keep the factories running are rolling down the road if the truck breaks down or crashes it can shut a factory down. A car might say GM the Heartbeat of America , however the reality is a lot of the parts in that car are made in China like the engine,and the vehicle is assembled in an American factory. Some of the entire cars are being made in China like some of the Buicks, Cadillacs, Volvos. How about Tesla with their crazy stock run up last week? That's what the companies did with Obama's bailout money they built plants in China. All the major manufacturers are using cheap shit Chinese parts, and they sell cheap shit Chinese parts in their replacement parts supply chain. It takes two weeks to a month for a container ship to leave China and arrive in the USA. We'll definitely start seeing the ramifications of this soon as the container ports and manufacturing plants are shut down in China. It won't take long for the effects to start showing up here, so don't be surprised when car plants start shutting down in North America and Mexico. Even the major truck manufacturers use lots of Chinese parts in their "American iron" Chinese windshields, wiring harnesses, u-joints, brake parts, exhaust, etc. Cummin's has lots of parts made there, and they are inferior garbage. There were some local trucks a few years ago that were brand new Kenworth's with Cummin's engines in them and they got around the 50,000 thousand mile mark which is just getting broken in for a semi, and engines started blowing up. The crankshafts went out on them and the entire engine grenaded. Cummin's blamed their Chinese supplier who did not build the bearings to the proper specifications so they failed. It won't take long for vehicles to be left sitting in need of repair also as the part is not available. It also won't take long to start seeing empty spaces on store shelves either as practically all the shit on the shelves is made in China. So don't be surprised in the near future when there are shortages of cell phones, microwave ovens,etc. Perhaps we'll see a correction in this irrational exuberance that has been going on in world stock markets that have been soaring to higher highs on poor data and earnings ratios that don't add up.
Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #34,453
  • Feb 9, 2020 4:48pm Feb 9, 2020 4:48pm
How market works

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May the Force be with you.
  • #34,454
  • Feb 9, 2020 5:09pm Feb 9, 2020 5:09pm
Quoting Davit
One of the games just played. Mate in 2.Black to move I am black {image}
Down to the wire on that game, that's the way the cookie crumbles in Chess one bad move spoils it all. Chess is a great brain exercise. I like to do the puzzles daily and play at least one game a day although I usually play 2 or 3 a day.
Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #34,455
  • Feb 9, 2020 5:15pm Feb 9, 2020 5:15pm
Quoting Romanov102
{quote} Down to the wire on that game, that's the way the cookie crumbles in Chess one bad move spoils it all. Chess is a great brain exercise. I like to do the puzzles daily and play at least one game a day although I usually play 2 or 3 a day.
A long time ago I was a youth chess champion four years in a row. I don't play much chess now, but I still enjoy playing chess once in a while..

My children want to play against me sometimes, luckily I still win
May the Force be with you.
  • #34,456
  • Edited 6:25pm Feb 9, 2020 5:38pm | Edited 6:25pm
Yen seasonality averages, keeping in mind these are averages and we are definitely not in an average situation here with the Novel Corona virus. One thing as a trader we should take into consideration is who is the second largest holders of US treasury securities? Hint the Country name starts with a C and ends with an A and its neither Canada or Cambodia. Would you like to buy a vowel? If you guessed Croatia, please do yourself a favor and stop trading Forex! Now that that Country is in shutdown mode what if they start selling off some of their USD? To me UJ looks like a good sell and $1.10 may be the ceiling. I've entered my first trade.I usually divide my trades into 3's so I can use different entry and exit strategies.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...treasury-debt/
http://www.equityclock.com/charts/ja...easonal-chart/
https://vantagepointtrading.com/fore...onal-patterns/
Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #34,457
  • Feb 9, 2020 5:52pm Feb 9, 2020 5:52pm
I see EUR/JPY as the Weakest/Strongest pair in the Yen book. Sell EUR/JPY until the coronavirus outbreak peaks and a little beyond until the full damage to the Chinese economy is known. They will have a correction as there is pent up demand in orders that they are unable to fulfill while they are on 'Extended Holiday'. Watching for the Japanese to respond to the strengthening of their currency is vital for the management of positions on this pair. Don't forget CBs do not have to schedule interventions, they can be a surprise. I see at least 117.00 as a target.
  • #34,458
  • Feb 9, 2020 6:34pm Feb 9, 2020 6:34pm
Quoting Josti
{quote} A long time ago I was a youth chess champion four years in a row. I don't play much chess now, but I still enjoy playing chess once in a while.. My children want to play against me sometimes, luckily I still win
I used to play correspondence chess, mainly with people from the UK (I am in NZ).

The games used to take up to two, three years. A bit different from 5 minute games, but great for building up patience.
  • #34,459
  • Edited 8:47pm Feb 9, 2020 6:57pm | Edited 8:47pm
Quoting Skracor247
I see EUR/JPY as the Weakest/Strongest pair in the Yen book. Sell EUR/JPY until the coronavirus outbreak peaks and a little beyond until the full damage to the Chinese economy is known. They will have a correction as there is pent up demand in orders that they are unable to fulfill while they are on 'Extended Holiday'. Watching for the Japanese to respond to the strengthening of their currency is vital for the management of positions on this pair. Don't forget CBs do not have to schedule interventions, they can be a surprise. I see at least 117.00...
I'm holding a long EJ and I don't think to close it, because I know that Japan's GDP is not very good
I see a poll showed on Friday Japan's economy likely shrank at the fastest pace since 2014 in the December quarter.
take a look below

POLL-Japan's Q4 GDP expected to post largest decline since 2014
  • #34,460
  • Feb 9, 2020 7:16pm Feb 9, 2020 7:16pm
Update on the coronavirus.

Same source as previous video I posted.

Inserted Video
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