Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 134 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #2,661
  • Feb 10, 2020 4:28am Feb 10, 2020 4:28am
DAX Closed Short position + 20 points
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX SHORT 10 FEVRIER 2020.jpg Size: 198 KB
  • #2,662
  • Feb 10, 2020 6:44am Feb 10, 2020 6:44am
Quoting parisboy
DAX Closed Short position + 20 points {image}
Hello Alain,

Can you explain your entry?

green pips
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #2,663
  • Feb 10, 2020 7:33am Feb 10, 2020 7:33am
Quoting limprobable
{quote} Hello Alain, Can you explain your entry? green pips
DAX Trend in 5 mn chart was bearish

All 3 Envelopes were bearish oriented

Bearish VTL Slope was -53° and > - 45°

Entry was on reversal confirmed when the 3 rd Heikin Ashi bar of the suspected bearish swing opened red

I was not before my screen at the beginning of the bearish swing. Hence I entered "on the way"

We are playing probabilities here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LIMPROBABLE ENTRY GLIDING STOP LOSSES.jpg Size: 75 KB
  • #2,664
  • Feb 10, 2020 7:46am Feb 10, 2020 7:46am
DAX Closed Short position + 11 points
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX SHORT 2 10 FEVRIER 2020.jpg Size: 195 KB
  • #2,665
  • Feb 10, 2020 10:00am Feb 10, 2020 10:00am
Quoting parisboy
DAX Closed Short position + 11 points {image}
Hi paris , nice trades can i ask you what is your overall win/loss ratio on those trades?

thank you.
  • #2,666
  • Feb 10, 2020 12:51pm Feb 10, 2020 12:51pm
BTCUSD Daily : Average Uptrending slope = 9 / 10 points per day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD POSSIBLE SCENARIO 10 FEVRIER 2020.jpg Size: 61 KB
  • #2,667
  • Edited 1:50pm Feb 10, 2020 12:51pm | Edited 1:50pm
BTCUSD Another scenario based on average lengths of computer identified cycles periods nd projected in the future.

To be used ONLY for possible Timing

IT IS JUST A SCENARIO ! DON'T BET THE FARM ON IT

You are only authorized to check if Price Action follows the scenario and to estimate the variations ! Conclusions are yours !


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD COMPOSITE CYCLE SCENARIO.jpg Size: 67 KB
  • #2,668
  • Feb 10, 2020 1:54pm Feb 10, 2020 1:54pm
The BTCUSD Composite Cycle Model results TOP in April 2020 and LOW in the second half of September 2020 have been obtained by the same computer program which identified the Cycle periods (length) of the DAX

Conclusion : Hurst Cycle Model is 99 % ok IN AVERAGE

but Hurst Cycle Model Values are just that : Averages (and others Cyclic Model too)

9 Year Cycle :

Average Cycle Value is 102,62 % of the theoretical (nominal) value which is good - for 3 components BUT Variation goes from - 12 % to + 12 % on individual components

9 Year Cycle = 9 x 12 = 108 months
12 % variation = 13 months

4.5 Year Cycle :

Average Cycle Value is 102,73 % of the theoretical (nominal) value which is good - for 6 components BUT Variation goes from - 15 % to + 32 % on individual components

4.5 Year Cycle = 4.5 x 12 = 54 months
15 % variation = 8.1 months
32 % variation + 17.28 months

Hurst Cycle Model is in AVERAGE good , even excellent. But it is a discovery Model , an Initial Cyclic Model
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD COMPOSITE CYCLE SCENARIO.jpg Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: HURST CYCLE MODEL DAX 9 4.5 YEAR CYCLE.jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #2,669
  • Feb 11, 2020 1:52pm Feb 11, 2020 1:52pm
Love the ongoing analysis and knowledge sharing, thanks Alain.

Re. BTCUSD model...There is a bitcoin halving approaching around May 2020 which has historically led to massive gains thereafter. Not sure if history will repeat, but if it does price expectations are for >300,000, ie. 30x current, around 18 months post-halving. Not sure how this fits with your model, if at all !
  • #2,670
  • Edited 3:02pm Feb 11, 2020 2:39pm | Edited 3:02pm
Quoting AP2762
Love the ongoing analysis and knowledge sharing, thanks Alain. Re. BTCUSD model...There is a bitcoin halving approaching around May 2020 which has historically led to massive gains thereafter. Not sure if history will repeat, but if it does price expectations are for >300,000, ie. 30x current, around 18 months post-halving. Not sure how this fits with your model, if at all !

AP2762, process is easy to understand

today BTC-USD = 10.157

Hence BTC-USD fluctuates within the Fractal of Price 0-12.500 (= 100.000 / 8)

Gann Octave = 12.500 / 8 = 1.562,5

12.500 is a Resistance.

We were in the same configuration for the DAX (see Chart)

Hence we have right now 2 potential room for improvement :
- from 10.157 to 12.500 = + 23 %
- from 10.157 to (12.500 + 1.562.5 ) 14.062.5 = +38,45 %

Let's assume a HALVING

right now BTC-USD would be valued at 5.078

Then we would have 2 options :
- from 5.078 to 10.000 = + 97 %
- from 5.078 to 12.500 = + 146 %
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD 11 10 FEVRIER 2020.jpg Size: 190 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX 10.000 - 13.750.jpg Size: 308 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pptx 2 FRACTAL STRUCTURE OF TIME AND PRICE ENGLISH 17.pptx   2.2 MB | 297 downloads
  • #2,671
  • Feb 11, 2020 7:53pm Feb 11, 2020 7:53pm
I'm not following you, maybe I'm missing something...

The btc halving is when the amount of btc that is created is halved (every 4 years or so). The current block reward of 12.5 Bitcoin every 10 minutes will be cut in half to 6.25 Bitcoin, thereby increasing longer-term scarcity and hopefully value, hence the >$300,000 btc price if history repeats.

This is a very good article on historical and the 2020 halvings... https://medium.com/swlh/bitcoin-halv...w-4573dc5b528e

My point was related to how this event would influence your btc pricing/timing cycle model.
  • #2,672
  • Feb 13, 2020 5:12am Feb 13, 2020 5:12am
Understanding Price Action :

Hereunder the Underlying Trend 32 represents the influence on Price Action of the Sum of All Cycles whose period is greater than 32 Time Units

Price Action is always composed of 2 components :

- the Amplitude of your Trading Cycle
- the correspondent Underlying Trend

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 15 mn UNDERLYING TREND 13 FEVRIER 2020.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #2,673
  • Feb 13, 2020 5:14am Feb 13, 2020 5:14am
Quoting AP2762
I'm not following you, maybe I'm missing something... The btc halving is when the amount of btc that is created is halved (every 4 years or so). The current block reward of 12.5 Bitcoin every 10 minutes will be cut in half to 6.25 Bitcoin, thereby increasing longer-term scarcity and hopefully value, hence the >$300,000 btc price if history repeats. This is a very good article on historical and the 2020 halvings... https://medium.com/swlh/bitcoin-halv...w-4573dc5b528e My point was related to how this event would...
AP2762

Thank you for this very informative link about Bitcoin "halving". I was not aware of such phenomena.

Sorry for my confusion with a traditional "split" on shares
  • #2,674
  • Feb 13, 2020 9:18am Feb 13, 2020 9:18am
EURUSD 1 mn

To protect profit Sold half of the position when Price Action was in the vicinity of the Lower Limit of the Envelope 256 (brown)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD SHORT 1 mn 13 FEVRIER 2020.jpg Size: 180 KB
  • #2,675
  • Feb 13, 2020 9:27am Feb 13, 2020 9:27am
DAX closed Long position + 20 points
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX LONG 1 mn 13 FEVRIER 2020.jpg Size: 173 KB
  • #2,676
  • Feb 14, 2020 7:08am Feb 14, 2020 7:08am
DAX Closed Long position + 70 points
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX LONG 14 FEVRIER 2020.jpg Size: 176 KB
  • #2,677
  • Feb 14, 2020 8:29am Feb 14, 2020 8:29am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD PRICE EXPLOSION RETURN TO THE MEAN 14 FEVRIER 2020.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #2,678
  • Feb 17, 2020 6:53am Feb 17, 2020 6:53am
Inserted Video
  • #2,679
  • Feb 18, 2020 11:27am Feb 18, 2020 11:27am
Various views of EU ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,680
  • Feb 19, 2020 6:59am Feb 19, 2020 6:59am
Update
With thanks to Parisboy
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1a.png Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1b.png Size: 118 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM1c.png Size: 73 KB
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