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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #6,341
  • Feb 9, 2020 12:20pm Feb 9, 2020 12:20pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} Yes is a very common volume profile.
OK. Where can I get it, name of indicator?
  • #6,342
  • Feb 9, 2020 1:59pm Feb 9, 2020 1:59pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} Yes is a very common volume profile.
Welcome Back Lock
  • #6,343
  • Feb 10, 2020 1:50am Feb 10, 2020 1:50am
Quoting Pixie666
{quote} Welcome Back Lock
Hi Pixie, thank you very much for your greetings! Have a nice trading day!
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  • #6,344
  • Feb 10, 2020 1:52am Feb 10, 2020 1:52am
GB will open below all our main references underlined last week and with a new gap downside from Friday low 2921. Friday GB close is at 29055. If the gap will not be retraced and acceptation confirmed below those main levels odds are in favor for continuation. Consider anyway overnight activity: it's completely short.
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  • #6,345
  • Feb 10, 2020 2:49am Feb 10, 2020 2:49am
Quoting Lock
GB will open below all our main references underlined last week and with a new gap downside from Friday low 2921. Friday GB close is at 29055. If the gap will not be retraced and acceptation confirmed below those main levels odds are in favor for continuation. Consider anyway overnight activity: it's completely short.
Note: overnight activity tagged at his low 28715, then B period tagged GB open at 2875: short covering and testing of the first main level 2898. Watch out
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  • #6,346
  • Feb 10, 2020 3:42am Feb 10, 2020 3:42am
Quoting Lock
GB will open below all our main references underlined last week and with a new gap downside from Friday low 2921. Friday GB close is at 29055. If the gap will not be retraced and acceptation confirmed below those main levels odds are in favor for continuation. Consider anyway overnight activity: it's completely short.
And here we are: now we should be able to understand if this is only short covering or something more. For something more we need acceptation above 29055, above 2898 and above overnight high 29095. If not consider the weaknesses left downside.
And also consider that the game could be to fill the new gap up to 2921 and then retrace after that. In any case take this market a piece at a time.
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  • #6,347
  • Feb 10, 2020 6:24am Feb 10, 2020 6:24am
2954 is GB January inside month low: it is the breakdown level and a go-no go price. I don't know if it will test it now but be aware of the implication of it if reached.
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  • #6,348
  • Feb 10, 2020 6:26am Feb 10, 2020 6:26am
Monitor curent poc level: if it moves upside a spike is possible
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  • #6,349
  • Feb 10, 2020 7:17am Feb 10, 2020 7:17am
Now, GB poc moved upside but we didn't see a spike before US open: 2942 is Pit inside week low from Nov 19 (the last inside week before the major rally upside). Then above it we got Friday poor high 29595, while the real important level is PIT Jan inside month low at 2975 (or if you prefer 2972 Nov 19 inside month high)

2972-75 are the go-no go levels for US and Pit sessions as they are the breakout levels on a monthly scale.

If price will confirmed below them odds are still for a continuation downside (on a monthly timeframe)
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  • #6,350
  • Feb 10, 2020 7:21am Feb 10, 2020 7:21am
Current GB structure left downside is very poor: 2908, 2902 28745 and 28715 are all weak levels. Also note that Friday pit action didn't remove 2982 US poor low from 19_11_29 us session. And below them we also got 2865 and 2823: both pit poor lows from November.
So let's see how it will develop but always having in mind the situation left downside.
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  • #6,351
  • Feb 10, 2020 7:34am Feb 10, 2020 7:34am
Quoting Lock
... 2972-75 are the go-no go levels for US and Pit sessions as they are the breakout levels on a monthly scale. If price will confirmed below them odds are still for a continuation downside (on a monthly timeframe)
Should I underline the fact that if instead for whatever reason price will be accepted above those levels 2972-75 we could aim at the opposite side of the monthly balance, meaning Pit Jan high 3210?
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  • #6,352
  • Edited 12:23am Feb 11, 2020 12:12am | Edited 12:23am
On a major scale we still are below all the major references underlined in previous posts:

  1. GB in the last 2 sessions operated below GB January inside month low at 2954 (acceptation below it) and below GB November 19 inside month high (2985).
  2. At the same time also PIT operated below its major references, both below 2975 (January PIT inside month) and below 2972 (November 19 PIT inside month high).

So in a broader perspective unless we will see price clearly accepted above all these levels and then rejected below them we still have odds to continue lower towards November low (GB 2793 and PIT 27687)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-02-10_22-07-26_Monthly.png Size: 47 KB


On a very minor scale what we saw yesterday, in my opinion, was a very poor market both during GB session and Pit one. GB only covered too short inventories left by Asia session while PIT did exactly the opposite with Europe session (liquidation of too long inventories). In any case the main result has been the materialization of an inside PIT session (yesterday PIT session range is inside Friday Pit range) and as a consequence today we will have to respect balance rules.

Other precious information are:

  1. we have 2 poor highs left by yesterday and Friday PIT sessions: 2945 and 29595
  2. we have 2 poor lows left by the same sessions at 29065 and 2882 (this last one coincides with an old us poor low of November 19)
  3. we got a very suspicious weak low left by yesterday GB session around 2872

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-02-10_21-44-16_GB-PIT situation.png Size: 68 KB

So in my opinion we could have the following 3 possible scenarios:

  1. Price will attempt higher removing some of the weaknesses left above (PIT poor highs) but still remaining accepted below major refs (maybe testing them again) and then it will continue downside towards Nov 19 lows.
  2. Price will continue downside without removing the weaknesses left upside towards Nov 19 lows.
  3. Price will remove the weaknesses left downside, it will find buyers below them and then it will rally upside in order to test acceptation above major references (back inside January inside month range).

All of them are possible but I put them in a "biggest odds" sequence from 1 to 3. In any case the purpose to have more options is exactly to be prepared to take useful decisions even if the more probable options will be neglected by the market.

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  • #6,353
  • Feb 11, 2020 1:12am Feb 11, 2020 1:12am
Quoting Lock
On a major scale we still are below all the major references underlined in previous posts: GB in the last 2 sessions operated below GB January inside month low at 2954 (acceptation below it) and below GB November 19 inside month high (2985). At the same time also PIT operated below its major references, both below 2975 (January PIT inside month) and below 2972 (November 19 PIT inside month high). So in a broader perspective unless we will see price clearly accepted above all these levels and then rejected below them we still have odds to continue...
Very well written thank you
  • #6,354
  • Feb 11, 2020 2:15am Feb 11, 2020 2:15am
Quoting Pixie666
{quote} Very well written thank you
You're welcome, have a nice trading.
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  • #6,355
  • Feb 11, 2020 7:11am Feb 11, 2020 7:11am
Note that after US open we are still well inside yesterday PIT session range (inside session of Friday Pit session): so balance rules still fully apply.
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  • #6,356
  • Feb 12, 2020 12:26am Feb 12, 2020 12:26am
So, yesterday PIT session attempted a rally upside 2 sessions balance and failed once. It also closed below main pit references 2972-75 for the third day in a row. So in a major scale we have acceptation of the break from January pit inside month. At the same time, on a minor scale, it left upside a new poor high and it should be said, it didn't test 2972-75.

Current price level is around GB major references 2954 (GB Jan low) and 2985 (GB Nov 19 high): the situation for GB is consequently very similar to PIT. For three days consecutively GB closed below its major refs, accepting, at least for now the monthly break.

The problem is that balance rules tell us that when a break occur we should see acceleration in the direction of the break: and we didn't see it at all. To the contrary we saw a three days stall just below breakeven.

So for upcoming GB session it should be reasonable to carefully evaluate market reaction to a possible test of 2954 and 2985. Furthermore it could be useful to evaluate acceptation below GB Dec low 2922: if acceleration will eventually occur, it will be below it.

As written numerous times, if for whatever reason we will see acceptation above the main levels 2954 and 2985 then we could see a complete retracement of January range. While at the opposite if we finally get acceleration below breakeven we could aim at Nov 19 lows (GB and PIT)

PS: 29435 is yesterday GB close.
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  • #6,357
  • Feb 12, 2020 9:35am Feb 12, 2020 9:35am
2972-75 watch out here.
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  • #6,358
  • Feb 12, 2020 10:02am Feb 12, 2020 10:02am
Quoting Lock
2972-75 watch out here.
Go-NO go levels: if acceptation next target is 3010
If rejection all the way back to 29065 -2881
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  • #6,359
  • Feb 12, 2020 12:49pm Feb 12, 2020 12:49pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} Go-NO go levels: if acceptation next target is 3010 If rejection all the way back to 29065 -2881
Now it rejected them (2972-75) so take note on a major scale. On a minor scale I see a very weak market with a new poor high 29795 and a weak low (2953 yes pit unch). So be aware of current environment.

Quoting Lock
2972-75 watch out here.
In any case note the importance of market generated information: it spent almost 2 hours there.
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  • #6,360
  • Feb 12, 2020 12:54pm Feb 12, 2020 12:54pm
This first test of 2972-75 seems to me very uncertain. It rejected them but at the same time the new poor high seems an indication of the fact that we didn't find new strong sellers above these levels. So I suggest to evaluate carefully this situation. Especially in such a weak environment.
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