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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #6,381
  • Feb 13, 2020 8:39am Feb 13, 2020 8:39am
30445 is last week pit high: acceptation above it needed for any continuation uspide
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,382
  • Feb 13, 2020 8:42am Feb 13, 2020 8:42am
Hay Lock,

i must say that i very enjoy to read your posts ,

trade safe and thanks .
Dream, believe,fight for it and you will achieve and NEVER EVER GIVE UP!
  • #6,383
  • Feb 13, 2020 8:54am Feb 13, 2020 8:54am
Quoting Almo2312
Hay Lock, i must say that i very enjoy to read your posts , trade safe and thanks .
You're really welcome and thanks for your appreciations.
Have a nice trading. Best regards
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  • #6,384
  • Feb 13, 2020 9:10am Feb 13, 2020 9:10am
Quoting Lock
30445 is last week pit high: acceptation above it needed for any continuation upside
In case of acceptation above 30445 we could imagine the filling of at least the first double pass pit gap up to 3075. Then, far above, there is the major poc 3134 just some pip below the second double pass gap higher extreme (31385)

At the opposite, in case of clear rejection of 30445 we could retrace to remove the mini double pass gap at 30105-12

Note that in any case the main references in order to establish acceptation or rejection of this possible major move are 2972-75
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  • #6,385
  • Feb 13, 2020 9:41am Feb 13, 2020 9:41am
Quoting Lock
{quote} In case of acceptation above 30445 we could imagine the filling of at least the first double pass pit gap up to 3075. Then, far above, there is the major poc 3134 just some pip below the second double pass gap higher extreme (31385) At the opposite, in case of clear rejection of 30445 we could retrace to remove the mini double pass gap at 30105-12 Note that in any case the main references in order to establish acceptation or rejection of this possible major move are 2972-75
Note that the entire pit gap zone up to 31385 coincides with the frantic liquidation performed by GB session after the brexit of 31_01. As any emotional and frantic move this one left upside a big amount of weaknesses in the form of multiple anomalies. So, technically (in theory), there is no structure to oppose a rally. At the same time I've no idea of current long inventories and so if price action will stop somewhere it will be probably caused by adjustment of inventories become too long and not by some serious opposition.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-02-13_7-43-44_Frantic liquidation of GB 02_03.png Size: 25 KB
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  • #6,386
  • Feb 13, 2020 10:12am Feb 13, 2020 10:12am
Well, I'm off. It liquidated. Maybe it's not over but I'm definitely too tired.
For tomorrow I think the most important level will be 2989 today GB spike base: we will evaluate where GB will open in relation to it. If above we could imagine that today spike test is not yet over. If below it that test will be considered as failed. In any case the major refs (unless something extraordinary tonight) will be 2954 and 2985. Acceptation above them will be needed for any serious continuation towards January high.
Have a nice continuation.
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  • #6,387
  • Feb 13, 2020 10:15am Feb 13, 2020 10:15am
Quoting Lock
30445 is last week pit high: acceptation above it needed for any continuation upside
last note: the liquidation tagged exactly 30445.
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  • #6,388
  • Feb 14, 2020 1:13am Feb 14, 2020 1:13am
So, GB attempted a retracement back inside GB January inside month range. End left a spike test upside (base 2989, top 30455)

  1. Let's see where it will open: above 2989 and 30455 will provide us also a new GB gap upside, meaning that yesterday test is not over.
  2. Above 2989 is the same but with less strength
  3. Below both 2989 and 30455 it could mean that yesterday test has been neglected by market activity.

Yesterday GB close is at 30495.

  1. If we see acceptation above all these references we could imagine a progression towards 3122 GB January unch, major poc 3134, Jan inside week high 3141 and eventually January GB close 3194 and high at 3230: this one as the last target to complete balance rules.
  2. If instead we will not see acceptation above these levels watch out for a possible retest of GB Jan inside week low at 29775 and Jan inside month low 2954. Obviously 2985 will be crucial as it was yesterday in such a scenario.

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  • #6,389
  • Feb 14, 2020 2:00am Feb 14, 2020 2:00am
Quoting Lock
So, GB attempted a retracement back inside GB January inside month range. End left a spike test upside (base 2989, top 30455) Let's see where it will open: above 2989 and 30455 will provide us also a new GB gap upside, meaning that yesterday test is not over. Above 2989 is the same but with less strength Below both 2989 and 30455 it could mean that yesterday test has been neglected by market activity. Yesterday GB close is at 30495. If we see acceptation above all these references we could imagine a progression towards 3122 GB January unch, major...
Hi Lock, can you elaborate more on this sentence pls "above 2989 and 30455 will provide us also a new GB gap upside, meaning that yesterday test is not over".

what do you mean that yesterday test is not over??

Many thanks,
  • #6,390
  • Feb 14, 2020 2:50am Feb 14, 2020 2:50am
Quoting Lock
Top of the triple pass GB gap is 30335
Overnight activity corrected. Back to 30335. Monitor for acceptation or rejection above and below 30495 yesterday GB close and 30315 yesterday GB unch.
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  • #6,391
  • Feb 14, 2020 10:13am Feb 14, 2020 10:13am
Quoting titi14
{quote} Hi Lock, can you elaborate more on this sentence pls "above 2989 and 30455 will provide us also a new GB gap upside, meaning that yesterday test is not over". what do you mean that yesterday test is not over?? Many thanks,
A spike is a form of excess and a test: Yesterday GB performed a test before preUS open.
This morning GB opened above the entire range of that test meaning that overnight session didn't refuse the result of the test. (direction upside)
GB opened above yesterday spike higher extreme 30455 (so there was a gap from the higher extreme of yesterday GB session and today GB open level)
and consequently opened above yesterday GB spike base at 2989.
Note that a gap is an other form of excess: so at that point in the morning we got 2 back to back excess in the same direction. And this is clearly not a sign of weaknesses.

Then GB liquidated overnight action but was not able to retrace the test: it was not able to obtain acceptance below yesterday spike base 2989. (Furthermore the value of the GB profile developed well above yesterday GB profile value)
So at least for GB participants what has been done yesterday during GB session has not been refused: so when I suggested to monitor for acceptation above 2989 and 30455 I did it because in opposite case (rejection above those levels) the test should have been considered failed and consequently a new serious scenario downside could have developed.

Now we saw price clearly rejected above 30455 but not above 2989: this means that at least for today we didn't find GB participants capable to open a new serious scenario downside.
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  • #6,392
  • Feb 14, 2020 10:23am Feb 14, 2020 10:23am
Quoting Lock
{quote} ... At the opposite, in case of clear rejection of 30445 we could retrace to remove the mini double pass gap at 30105-12 ...
Even though this has nothing to do with yesterday pit action, note that current pit session managed to fill at the pip 30105-12
Yesterday unch is at 30405
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  • #6,393
  • Feb 14, 2020 10:43am Feb 14, 2020 10:43am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Even though this has nothing to do with yesterday pit action, note that current pit session managed to fill at the pip 30105-12 Yesterday unch is at 30405
Note that for any serious continuation upside we need to reach 30405 and then get acceptation above it. If not we will probably have balance or a new retracement downside.
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  • #6,394
  • Feb 14, 2020 11:17am Feb 14, 2020 11:17am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Even though this has nothing to do with yesterday pit action, note that current pit session managed to fill at the pip 30105-12 Yesterday unch is at 30405
So here we are at 30405: see previous post.
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  • #6,395
  • Feb 14, 2020 11:46am Feb 14, 2020 11:46am
So why it is so important, in this case, to monitor for acceptation above yesterday pit session unch level 30405? Yesterday built its entire value above 30405.

Now: we trade value, not price. Ask yourself: how many possibilities we have, at this hour in the day, to develop value above yesterday value?

We spent almost 7 periods of pit session developing value below yesterday value: we still have 8 periods untill pit will close.

Current poc at 3025 is 4 letter meaning that 4 periods built value there: to have something more than 4 letter we should move fast above 30405 and start to build a new poc above yesterday poc at 3054.

How do you evaluate this possibility? Is probable? Is only possible but not so probable?

Let's say you are long from C period (the third of the session): if you will not see acceptation above yesterday unch 30405 and if you will not see acceleration above it and above 3054 (yesterday poc) your position is risky.

Clearly there are numerous other elements to evaluate but this is one of the most important now.
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  • #6,396
  • Feb 17, 2020 12:09am Feb 17, 2020 12:09am
Main GB refs for upcoming session are:

  1. last week GB close 30365.
  2. Thursday spike base 2989.
  3. Major monthly refs 2985 and 2954.

For any continuation upside we want to see price accepted above all of them. In which case we could aim to the complete correction of Monday 02_03 GB session liquidation up to 3150. And then up to GB Jan monthly high 3230. Note that in any case, even if you'll see price going up acceptation above January Gb unch 3122 is required for continuation.
At the contrary if we will see price consolidating below these refs (30365 and 2985-89 and 2954) we could see a new attempt downside toward Nov 19 lows.

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  • #6,397
  • Feb 17, 2020 5:12am Feb 17, 2020 5:12am
3019 is Friday GB low: we want to have acceptation below it for any serious continuation downside (as a first step). If not all the way back up to 3050.
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  • #6,398
  • Feb 18, 2020 1:20am Feb 18, 2020 1:20am
Note overnight action toward 2985 major GB ref. Now, for upcoming GB session 2985 and 2989 (Thursday spike base) are crucial as it could be 2954 if reached.

The fact is that we left upside huge weaknesses, starting with yesterday US 3020 and PIT 3016 poor highs made during bank holiday to end up to 3054 yesterday Sydney weekly poor high.

So watch out because if we will no find acceptation below those major GB refs, the upper weaknesses are almost sure, today or in the next sessions.

In any case monitor carefully for a possible new Gb gap downside from yesterday GB low 3010 and note that GB close is just a pip above it at 3011: any serious attempt upside will need acceptation above them. If not, even considering the weaknesses left above we could see continuation downside, at least for today.
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  • #6,399
  • Feb 18, 2020 2:10am Feb 18, 2020 2:10am
Quoting Lock
Note overnight action toward 2985 major GB ref. Now, for upcoming GB session 2985 and 2989 (Thursday spike base) are crucial as it could be 2954 if reached. ....
Testing 2985-2989 watch out.
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  • #6,400
  • Feb 18, 2020 2:17am Feb 18, 2020 2:17am
Quoting Lock
.... In any case monitor carefully for a possible new Gb gap downside from yesterday GB low 3010 and note that GB close is just a pip above it at 3011: any serious attempt upside will need acceptation above them. If not, even considering the weaknesses left above we could see continuation downside, at least for today.
Note GB action starting with a new gap downside from yesterday GB low 3010 For any serious continuation downside as said many times we need acceptation below 2985-89, below 2954 and clearly we do not want to see the new GB gap downside retraced.
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