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Pivot Trading

  • #34,401
  • Feb 7, 2020 10:10am Feb 7, 2020 10:10am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} Re-entered EA short near pivot, watching what it does today, may hold over weekend...
I had the same idea.
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,402
  • Feb 7, 2020 10:14am Feb 7, 2020 10:14am
My perspective on stops: you don't need stops. You need risk management.

If you combine factors like where resistance and support lines are (I mainly use D1 charts), news events, pivots and PA you can trade without using stops.

Today I chickend out USD/JPY because usually I don't trade major pairs and because of the news today. The 110 line is very strong and I could have kept my sell trades longer, but hey that's life. Take a loss and move on..
May the Force be with you.
  • #34,403
  • Feb 7, 2020 10:34am Feb 7, 2020 10:34am
Quoting Davit
I wrote about this before but worth refresher. Market makers dont care about your stops or positions what they care about getting their orders filled.In order to that they must find liquidity clusters so they push price 1st down triggering stops causing their orders filled in millions even billion dollar positions but not all at once.So MM can't place 10billion order at once so every time price drops 20-30 pips chunk of it get filled until all orders get filled then break out occurs as real life example below.Range situation is often position building...
Honestly appreciate your lectures Davit, Even tho I have traded for years I am still here to learn new aspects about the market.
Money is a part of what turns you into who you are.
  • #34,404
  • Feb 7, 2020 10:42am Feb 7, 2020 10:42am
He explains this very well.I like this guy a lot
"Market will go where your stops are most of the time"
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,405
  • Feb 7, 2020 10:58am Feb 7, 2020 10:58am
Continuing on this theme.You can sense that I have thought about this way earlier then 2016 when I started this thread. Spacing orders advantage is the whole 20-30pip distance example 61-100 is sell or buy zone so the whole thing becomes 1 trade consist of cluster of smaller 10trades.Where others place their stops you are adding building a position just like institutional traders.
Think of Cat from ears to tail end.Its this Edge that works best on this system.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,406
  • Feb 7, 2020 11:32am Feb 7, 2020 11:32am
Quoting Davit
He explains this very well.I like this guy a lot "Market will go where your stops are most of the time" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4GaJKprGEs
Good explanation. Here another explanation from Jarratt Davis from which I learned a lot about how to understand the fundamentals

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Trade What's Happening... Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen
  • #34,407
  • Feb 7, 2020 1:15pm Feb 7, 2020 1:15pm
Have a good weekend all
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I'm still holding some EN dd from last week and my UC trade from today. looking forward to the market moving NZD news releases toward the later part of next week
  • #34,408
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:13pm Feb 7, 2020 2:13pm
How Canada deals with Corona virus

"Canadian Government to Citizens : "Nothing to fear, we added one single question to customs forms for individuals entering Canada from China. "Did you visit Wuhan recently?"

PM is oxymoron!
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...questions.html

Travellers
11. I travelled to Canada on a flight with many passengers who originated in China. Am I at risk?
Canada has no direct flights from Wuhan, and the volume of travellers arriving indirectly from Wuhan is low. At this time, there is no clear evidence that this virus is spread easily from person to person.
Canadians should always tell their health care providers about their travel if they become ill after returning to Canada. In particular, Canadians should tell their health care providers about their symptoms, where they have been travelling or living, and whether they have had close contact with a sick person or had another high-risk exposure such as direct contact with animals or their droppings or secretions (e.g., through a visit to a live animal market or farm).
Symptoms reported among the identified cases in China are common to several respiratory illnesses. The clinical signs and symptoms are mainly fever, with some patients having difficulty breathing and chest radiographs showing invasive lesions (pneumonia) in both lungs.

24k already carriers in China and spreading and this is what Canadian govern puts out? Really?They dont know it spreads person to person? Really? Pathetic!
1st of all decease is wide spread outside the Wuhan already!!!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,409
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:25pm Feb 7, 2020 2:25pm
Quoting Davit
How Canada deals with Corona virus "Canadian Government to Citizens : "Nothing to fear, we added one single question to customs forms for individuals entering Canada from China. "Did you visit Wuhan recently?" PM is oxymoron! https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...questions.html Travellers 11. I travelled to Canada on a flight with many passengers who originated in China. Am I at risk? Canada has no direct flights from Wuhan, and the volume of travellers arriving indirectly...
This is the real Problem with this Coronavirus. The whole world does underestimate this issue. I think the number of 24 K is much too low. I' heard more than 100K. Time will tell...
Regards,
Renko
  • #34,410
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:30pm Feb 7, 2020 2:30pm
Quoting renkotop
{quote} This is the real Problem with this Coronavirus. The whole world does underestimate this issue. I think the number of 24 K is much too low. I' heard more than 100K. Time will tell... Regards, Renko
So Canadian govern asks people coming back to China to voluntarily check with their health provider and assumes these people will do so?
Well fact is you can be carrier not show symptoms for two weeks and that's enough time to infect hundreds of Canadians.Bottom line is this Pussy government of Canada does not have the balls to deal with this directly from fear of political correctness

Agree numbers are lot bigger!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,411
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:35pm Feb 7, 2020 2:35pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} So Canadian govern asks people coming back to China to voluntarily check with their health provider and assumes these people will do so? Well fact is you can be carrier not show symptoms for two weeks and that's enough time to infect hundreds of Canadians.Bottom line is this Pussy government of Canada does not have the balls to deal with this directly from fear of political correctness Agree numbers are lot bigger!
Right Davit! Within the next two weeks the "official" number the chinese Government will be above 50 K and many many dead People.

So their economy will slow down as well the AUD and NZD, I' m sure...

Market makers collect Shorts on those AUD and NZD since About 5.th to 6.th February!
  • #34,412
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:40pm Feb 7, 2020 2:40pm
Quoting renkotop
{quote} Right Davit! Within the next two weeks the "official" number the chinese Government will be above 50 K and many many dead People. So their economy will slow down as well the AUD and NZD, I' m sure...
There are Chinese lying about their infection and where they come from to get out and later brag about it in social media.Already out there.
Not saying this to create racism about Chinese but they are despicable Chinese individuals knowingly lie about it.He used to live in China and now back to LA prior of outbreak.Knows China real well.Speaks Chinese and married to one.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,413
  • Feb 7, 2020 4:09pm Feb 7, 2020 4:09pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} There are Chinese lying about their infection and where they come from to get out and later brag about it in social media.Already out there. Not saying this to create racism about Chinese but they are despicable Chinese individuals knowingly lie about it.He used to live in China and now back to LA prior of outbreak.Knows China real well.Speaks Chinese and married to one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkF4qYdNU9Y
OH NO! Davit now you are on the Chinese HOTLIST for speaking out against them. They are making a list like Santa Claus who's been naughty and who's been nice . Don't ever go there, you may be detained! I have nothing against the average Chinese person many of them are very nice, however I despise their heavy handed Commie C^#t government. oops now I'm on the list too.
https://www.axios.com/china-arrests-...76aa6004d.html
Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #34,414
  • Feb 7, 2020 4:19pm Feb 7, 2020 4:19pm
Quoting Davit
How Canada deals with Corona virus "Canadian Government to Citizens : "Nothing to fear, we added one single question to customs forms for individuals entering Canada from China. "Did you visit Wuhan recently?" PM is oxymoron! https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...questions.html Travellers 11. I travelled to Canada on a flight with many passengers who originated in China. Am I at risk? Canada has no direct flights from Wuhan, and the volume of travellers arriving indirectly...
A picture is worth a thousand words.
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #34,415
  • Feb 7, 2020 5:23pm Feb 7, 2020 5:23pm
Hi all,

Here are some thoughts from this week. Anyone feel free to add, contradict, etc. Can anyone suggest a 'summary of the week' website that is in line with how pivot traders view trading?

I am not trading JPY crosses right now so invite anyone to comment on those if they want.

USD – Green news throughout the week and strong against GBP, EUR,AUD, CAD. NFP was revealing, suggesting a possible softening of USD since unemployment increased to 3.6% from 3.5%. Change numbers were green though. FED dovish statements suggest the rates will remain unchanged for the time being with a possible rate cut later in the year. Trump State of the Union - he was positive, as usual. Not sure if his comments affected the USD. He likes to stroke his own ego so will talk about how great things are, even if they aren't.

CAD – very little news this week for CAD although positive Friday employment data helped maintain the strong resistance level around 1.3300. IVEY PMI also positive. Next week is another pretty light week for CAD news.

AUD – RBA kept rates unchanged, which was a positive and possibly one of the drivers to bring EA back into balance around the WPP. AUD is still affected by bushfire fallout and coronavirus impact. There is some evidence that the coronavirus in China may be much worse than the Chinese government is telling, although this is hard to prove. It is unclear now what that impact may be. We should know more in another week or so since it apparently has a two week incubation period.

NZD – positive employment data didn’t affect it against the AUD. AUD is still strong here, even though weaker against USD.

GBP – volatility decreased now that Brexit is a done deal.
EUR- lots of EUR news that was mostly positive or neutral. LaGarde spoke twice with somewhat positive or neutral sentiment.

I am always amazed that even though volatility, news, world geopolitical events push and pull the pairs one way or another, they always end up back around the WPP eventually.
  • #34,416
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:57pm Feb 7, 2020 6:57pm
This week.
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  • #34,417
  • Feb 7, 2020 10:54pm Feb 7, 2020 10:54pm
Coronavirus economic impact on Australia

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...st-hit-nations

source: https://www.theguardian.com/
  • #34,418
  • Feb 8, 2020 12:48am Feb 8, 2020 12:48am
Watch this you tube video for the latest news on the corona virus.

It has the quadratic (only) model of the spread that the Chinese government uses to allay fears.

Also information on the cruise ship in Japan that gives us real data to work from.

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  • #34,419
  • Edited 5:59am Feb 8, 2020 5:41am | Edited 5:59am
Quoting ppxdf
{image} {image} {image} {image}
as I did last Saturday, I will post today, the most expressive values of the COT report.
I don't know if you had a chance to examine the information from last Saturday, and took advantage of 150 pips down on EU, from Pivot lvl R38 to S100.
Obviously that info can give us clues on how sentiment is developing and changing, but it should never be used as a trade signal on its own and
I used it only be incorporated as an additional layer of analysis of our weely pivot system.
In the post, long for USD and short for EUR were highlighted.
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  • #34,420
  • Feb 8, 2020 8:43am Feb 8, 2020 8:43am
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} as I did last Saturday, I will post today, the most expressive values of the COT report. I don't know if you had a chance to examine the information from last Saturday, and took advantage of 150 pips down on EU, from Pivot lvl R38 to S100. Obviously that info can give us clues on how sentiment is developing and changing, but it should never be used as a trade signal on its own and I used it only be incorporated as an additional layer of analysis of our weely pivot system. In the post, long for USD and short for EUR were highlighted. {image}...
Positions can change dramatically depending on data Example red NFP would of changed entire currency moves.Its something to consider but I would not use as bases of placing trades
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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