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Pivot Trading

  • #34,381
  • Feb 7, 2020 5:16am Feb 7, 2020 5:16am
Here's a LIve NFP youtube stream that comes out.
Inserted Video
Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #34,382
  • Feb 7, 2020 5:18am Feb 7, 2020 5:18am
Quoting Davit
lines on the horse are just marvelous.When you consider the image is carved takes it to high level.That's passion mastery! How many feel the same about trading? {image}
This looks like something that would look good on leather carving.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #34,383
  • Edited 6:00am Feb 7, 2020 5:36am | Edited 6:00am
Possibly good for my UC shorts

3 indecision candles for consecutive days. These releases might finally gives direction to UC downwards.
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Fortune favors the brave.
  • #34,384
  • Feb 7, 2020 5:57am Feb 7, 2020 5:57am
USD mix bag.Yes great job gain but unemployment went up slightly and earning down.Holding UC shorts
market in a limbo Sell USD? or Buy?...so far buy but it may get dumped after 10
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,385
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:03am Feb 7, 2020 6:03am
Quoting mngnglkl
Possibly good for my UC shorts {image} {image}
Good job data for both USD and CAD, CAD even better, but the latter is dragged down by oil price at $50 and pointing down.
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,386
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:12am Feb 7, 2020 6:12am
Quoting bubincka
{quote} Good job data for both USD and CAD, CAD even better, but the latter is dragged down by oil price at $50 and pointing down.
Thanks. Also noticed the situation with oil. But take the decision to short UC due to position and PA (R61 and 4H bearish candle when took it). Will hold it, esp due to bounce from R100 which also happens to be a strong multi month resistance zone. Will watch PA on the area to decide later on (removed my stop as there might be a bullish trap which is what might be happening at the moment).
Fortune favors the brave.
  • #34,387
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:27am Feb 7, 2020 6:27am
Quoting mngnglkl
{quote} Thanks. Also noticed the situation with oil. But take the decision to short UC due to position and PA (R61 and 4H bearish candle when took it). Will hold it, esp due to bounce from R100 which also happens to be a strong multi month resistance zone. Will watch PA on the area to decide later on (removed my stop as there might be a bullish trap which is what might be happening at the moment).
Me too short on UC.

On another note, with AUD total crash and AU dropped at its lowest level since 2009 all aussie pairs become interesting, EA, GA, AC are on my watch list.
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,388
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:34am Feb 7, 2020 6:34am
Closed UJ
was waiting for the fall
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,389
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:47am Feb 7, 2020 6:47am
Keep in mind when trading pay attention to ADR Example UJ last 20days 43 today dropped about 50 already over the ADR so holding for more is not advisable.You may just gave back your gains.
Given fundamentals can push pairs lot more but day like this safe to say UJ dropping lower is not great.Not saying it can't remember anything can happen but seating on gains hoping for more after stretched ADR is lower probability

On the same token if UJ goes to 980+I may reload shorts
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,390
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:55am Feb 7, 2020 6:55am
When you take the pivots out and look at clean charts or even with pivots you can see 110 is extremely strong R
Not going to break now not enough liquidity left being Friday that is.Positions are getting unloaded on USD
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,391
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:10am Feb 7, 2020 7:10am
Quoting Davit
Keep in mind when trading pay attention to ADR Example UJ last 20days 43 today dropped about 50 already over the ADR so holding for more is not advisable.You may just gave back your gains. Given fundamentals can push pairs lot more but day like this safe to say UJ dropping lower is not great.Not saying it can't remember anything can happen but seating on gains hoping for more after stretched ADR is lower probability On the same token if UJ goes to 980+I may reload shorts {image}
Hi Davit, thanks for this heads up, I was just giving back my moderate gain on UJ, after all dollar index is above 98, all latest data on USD have been good and swap on UJ short is really expensive.

As you say there's always the chance to reload.
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,392
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:13am Feb 7, 2020 7:13am
Quoting bubincka
{quote} Hi Davit, thanks for this heads up, I was just giving back my moderate gain on UJ, after all dollar index is above 98, all latest data on USD have been good and swap on UJ short is really expensive. As you say there's always the chance to reload. {image}
One of the benefits of sharing in public forum.You learn from various contributors what makes this thread great
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,393
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:13am Feb 7, 2020 7:13am
Quoting Davit
Keep in mind when trading pay attention to ADR Example UJ last 20days 43 today dropped about 50 already over the ADR so holding for more is not advisable.You may just gave back your gains. Given fundamentals can push pairs lot more but day like this safe to say UJ dropping lower is not great.Not saying it can't remember anything can happen but seating on gains hoping for more after stretched ADR is lower probability On the same token if UJ goes to 980+I may reload shorts {image}
Unloaded on UJ earlier today for reasons you've just outlined. Seems to just be a pull in the direction of Friday profit taking, I find it more probable that UJ revisits those prices maybe slightly higher taking out stops along the way before one of them healthy drops we see week in week out across the pivots.
  • #34,394
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:15am Feb 7, 2020 7:15am
Quoting YoungET
{quote} Unloaded on UJ earlier today for reasons you've just outlined. Seems to just be a pull in the direction of Friday profit taking, I find it more probable that UJ revisits those prices maybe slightly higher taking out stops along the way before one of them healthy drops we see week in week out across the pivots.
data was green on USD jobs that is and market is not yet bearish sentiment on USD maybe next week.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,395
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:19am Feb 7, 2020 7:19am
Next week RBNZ may surprise with rate cut.Virus may have changed their plans.NJ may revisit 69-68-6880-70 again
Good spot to buy. Not going to short or buy.Going to leave it alone for now. AN may drop to 350 in which case I may go long.As of now leaving it alone
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,396
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:29am Feb 7, 2020 7:29am
AC at WP cross roads given UC is moving slowly south this may get pushed lower.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,397
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:37am Feb 7, 2020 7:37am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} {image}
Re-entered EA short near pivot, watching what it does today, may hold over weekend. No significant news next week on both. Lowe speaking on Thursday due to 7th Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum, audience questions expected but I don't expect much from it.

Also holding some UC short.

I think we hear some good news next week according to corona virus. People are getting better so commodity pairs should gain.
  • #34,398
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:40am Feb 7, 2020 7:40am
Quoting Romanov102
Here's a LIve NFP youtube stream that comes out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-2f...ature=youtu.be
THANK YOU !!!

GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #34,399
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:44am Feb 7, 2020 7:44am
My results for this week:

Attached Image


I'm happy with it.

My target is to gain 10% per month. Although this week was a little lower, I'm still on the right track.

Cheers!
May the Force be with you.
  • #34,400
  • Feb 7, 2020 8:05am Feb 7, 2020 8:05am
I wrote about this before but worth refresher.
Market makers dont care about your stops or positions what they care about getting their orders filled.In order to that they must find liquidity clusters so they push price 1st down triggering stops causing their orders filled in millions even billion dollar positions but not all at once.So MM can't place 10billion order at once so every time price drops 20-30 pips chunk of it get filled until all orders get filled then break out occurs as real life example below.Range situation is often position building situation therefore why I prefer to trade most likely direction of break out.Example EC break out likely north.Notice multiple spikes down that's MM filling their orders.
Retail traders in general are predictable that is 20-30pips stops hence on every major support they are below 20-30pips stops which is oxymoron why majority lose in this business not understanding how wide stops should be.Another factor positions too big hence small stops to protect account then get killed.
.
So when price spikes down on major support pivot level DON'T panic! wait calmly!
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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