Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 133 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #2,641
  • Feb 5, 2020 5:49am Feb 5, 2020 5:49am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Hello limprobable . No, I have not. As it is a semi-discretionary method (at least for the decision to enter or exit) but based on rational systematic "rules" , I would not say I never had done. But de facto it seems to me based on the same principles. Anyway you have to work FIRST and TOGETHER the PRACTICE and the THEORY to understand the rationale behind the Methodology {image}
What I have done with the systematical use of 3 Envelopes is to rationalize and hierarchize the classification of the Waves / Cycles classified in :

Degree 1 : Price Action has touched or crossed the Upper or Lower Limits of Enveloppe 32 (blue)
Degree 2 : Price Action has touched or crossed the Upper or Lower Limits of Enveloppe 128 (ocre)
Degree 3 : Price Action has touched or crossed the Upper or Lower Limits of Enveloppe 256 (brown)

Here for example you have a Top 3 (in green)

The next Top is a Top of Degree 2 . Hence linking both Tops you can build a Descending Valid Trend Line of Degree 2 (in red). This means that , as long as this Descending VTL is not broken on the upside (potential Action Signal (AS 2) the Trend is bearish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX LIMPROBABLE VTL ACTION SIGNALS 5 FEVRIER 2020.jpg Size: 78 KB
  • #2,642
  • Edited 7:15am Feb 5, 2020 6:55am | Edited 7:15am
Quoting limprobable
{quote} Hello Parisboy, Have you studie something like this: entries not based on price (VTL) but a Trend line based on last extension of the last curve of the envelopes. {image} green pips
Notice the black cartouche.

Within this cartouche you see an Ascending VTL in green parallel to your blue extension of the last curve of the Enveloppe.

The Action Signal AS1 where the Ascending VTL of degree 1 (in green) is broken on the downside by Price Action means that :

Trend is now bearish
The Top T3 which is also a Top T1 is confirmed as the last Top within the Enveloppe 32 (blue) which has changed its Direction

Similarly if AS2 is generated by Price Action having broken on the upside the Descending VTL of degree 2 (in red) this will confirm Low 2 as the last Low of Degree 2

AS means in hurstonian language " Action Signal" generated by cyclic price Action where you can on a rational basis open a long or a short position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX LIMPROBABLE 2.jpg Size: 79 KB
  • #2,643
  • Edited 9:22am Feb 5, 2020 8:06am | Edited 9:22am
As far as i understand english and your theory (c'est pas gagné )

I only watch the 32 envelopps to simplify. Only VTL of degree 1.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: InkedInkedInkedDOW LONG 3 FEVRIER 2020_LI VTL.jpg Size: 979 KB


1. First wave of the 32 envellop market is up (direction of the envelopp is up, price is up)
a good buy could be a buy on TL red : which is not a VTL.

2. On the first wave up of the 32 envelope you can drawn 4 VTL, the 4 blue (which have differents angles- note that degree of angles are intersting). Only the last is good for sell. Logic in an uptrend market (according to 32 enveloppe)

3. The second wave of the 32 enveloppe is down. The 3 TL (1,2,3 green) which are not VTL are good for sell. But VTL are drawn for buy in a descending market (yellow lines).
So for a trader :
{C}- {C}the 1, 2,3 blue VTL which can be only a sell, can’t be trade or this will be a lost
{C}- {C}Only the TL (which is not a VTL) is a good trade.
{C}- {C}Only the last VTL is a good trade for sell (4 blue)
So only some of the VTL are good for indicates a reversal market. This means that you can be in counter trend if you sell at 1, 2 and 3 blue VTL or at least support DD if your SL is not touch.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: InkedCHFJPY DESCENDING VTL LINKING 4 TOPS 26 JANVIER 2020_LI.jpg Size: 714 KB


Why are you seeking descending VTL for a buy (if scalping - if you seek big mouvment it's another story) in counter trend instead of others TL (in red) for sell ?
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #2,644
  • Edited 9:57am Feb 5, 2020 8:33am | Edited 9:57am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Degree 1 : Price Action has touched or crossed the Upper or Lower Limits of Enveloppe 32 (blue)
Not clear definition of VTL for me : sometimes price must touch or cross the upper limit of enveloppe to be a VTL , sometimes it's just a peak of price that not touch or cross the upper limit of the enveloppe, like The Action Signal AS1 where the Ascending VTL of degree 1 (in green) in you black cartouche (and according to Hurst).

So if you take again the 4 blue VTL. The 1,2 and 3 are bad entries for sell and the 4 is not a VTL (do not touched or crossed lower limits of enveloppe 32). So the last signal for sell is VTL 3 and it probably hit SL cause there is a HH just after.
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #2,645
  • Edited 11:49am Feb 5, 2020 11:21am | Edited 11:49am
Quoting limprobable
As far as i understand english and your theory (c'est pas gagné ) I only watch the 32 envelopps to simplify. Only VTL of degree 1. {image} to 32 enveloppe) 3. The second wave of the 32 enveloppe is down. The 3 TL (1,2,3 green) which are not VTL are good for sell. But VTL are drawn for buy in a descending market (yellow lines). So for a trader : {C}- {C}the 1, 2,3 blue VTL which can be only a sell, can’t be trade or this will be a lost {C}- {C}Only the TL (which is not a VTL) is a good trade. {C}- {C}Only the last VTL is a good trade for sell...
You do not BUY in a BEARISH market. You SELL (most of the time)

You do not SELL in a BULLISH market (most of the Time)

You do not play the counter-trend , only if the possible Swing Amplitude leaves you enough space Amplitude to benefit from it. Moreover you take into account the Angle of your counter-trend swing which gives you Speed and Acceleration . Finally you take allso into Accound the strength of the Underlying Trend you are opposed to.

Here you have (in red ) a Descending VTL whose Slope is - 35 °.

Hence you can open a Short Position after reversal on each intermediary Top T1,T2, T3, T4

Notice that this Descending VTL - 35 ° merges more or less with the Centered Moving Average 128 (ocre)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LIMPROBABLE DESCENDING VTL -35.jpg Size: 67 KB
  • #2,646
  • Feb 5, 2020 11:36am Feb 5, 2020 11:36am
read this about VTL' and its use

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12722965
  • #2,647
  • Feb 5, 2020 11:36am Feb 5, 2020 11:36am
2 Videos about VTL's

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  • #2,648
  • Feb 5, 2020 11:45am Feb 5, 2020 11:45am
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  • #2,649
  • Feb 5, 2020 1:14pm Feb 5, 2020 1:14pm
DOW Closed Long Position + 42 points
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  • #2,650
  • Feb 7, 2020 5:40am Feb 7, 2020 5:40am
DAX Closed Short position + 50 points with Gliding Stop Losses
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Click to Enlarge Name: DAX SHORT 7 FEVVRIER 2020 WITH GLIDING STOP-LOSSES.jpg Size: 69 KB
  • #2,651
  • Feb 7, 2020 5:57am Feb 7, 2020 5:57am
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  • #2,652
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:06am Feb 7, 2020 6:06am
Average Cycle Time Period = 1,25 Square
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  • #2,653
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:24am Feb 7, 2020 6:24am
Hi Parisboy,,

As I've said before I have never seen another trader anymore knowledgeable than you in the trading of cycles & the willingness you have to relentlessly share your knowledge with those willing to learn. You are a treasure trove of information on how to trade cycles as well as other related information. You have one of the best thread at the Factory. I may not post much, but always following along on the sideline. Thank you & best wishes to you & yours in the year ahead.

______________________________________________________________________
  • #2,654
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:38am Feb 7, 2020 6:38am
Quoting acetrader
Hi Parisboy,, As I've said before I have never seen another trader anymore knowledgeable than you in the trading of cycles & the willingness you have to relentlessly share your knowledge with those willing to learn. You are a treasure trove of information on how to trade cycles as well as other related information. You have one of the best thread at the Factory. I may not post much, but always following along on the sideline. Thank you & best wishes to you & yours in the year ahead. ______________________________________________________________________...
Ace thanks for your nice words.

There is also some egoism. Sharing by explaining others allows me to go deeper and deeper in the theory linked together withe the practice.

Best wishes to you too.

The key is not to absolutize Gann or / and Hurst or others. But to consider that they were great minds using their brain, their knowledge and the tools at their disposanl to answer the same question we have today.

How to analyze the structure of the market (if the mrket has one)
Where and when to enter ?
Where and when to exit ?
How to protect my trade ? where to position my stop-loss ?
How to estimate the underlying trend ?
How to detect and confirm a reversal ?
How to estimate a possible target / end of a swing ?
  • #2,655
  • Edited 2:40pm Feb 7, 2020 6:52am | Edited 2:40pm
After you have all mastered the SQUARING PROCESS, I will demonstrate to you that " GANN SQUARES" are just a specific case of the LAW OF VIBRATION.

Look at vik11 chart

Price can fluctuate eternally within the same Range , going back and forth within that Range (whatever the Range)

Time NEVER goes back, hence your Time axis, whatever the Time Unit you use , ALWAYS expands on the right.

Consequence your original "Square" is woved to change itself into a quadrilater

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  • #2,656
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:39pm Feb 7, 2020 2:39pm
The beauty of Manual Drawing joined to the Time Price Conversion Bar Methodology !
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  • #2,657
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:43pm Feb 7, 2020 2:43pm
I repost what I have already posted about "manual drawing" :

Manual drawing is NOT "tedious" . It generates a learning process.

With manual drawing you will learn the how and why the methodology works.

Do not forget that Gann has created his tools and developped his methodology at a time when him and his customers had no computer, not even a pocket calculator. Respect and understand that.

With manual drawing you will understand that the methodology as a whole is not automatable. But you will understand better what is worth to be automatized or not

vik11 you follow the good path. Doing it yourself manually. Hence you "program" yourself the methodology. Then to "program" something you need to master yourself the whole process and the parameters. Otherwise it does not work.

Even your "failures" to do it are productive - that is the Edison paradigm - my failures or impossibilities to do are a way to the success.

This way you can discriminate between what is vital to the methodology and what is less important.

This way You will understand that there are NO GANN ANGLES , Gann "Angles" are a specific case of Angles - what you generally got on your software or platform.

You have in fact "GANN SQUARES" . But if the name is more precise , you have yet to understand :

what is Gann's Squaring Process,
its interest and consequences for trading
and how to use it
  • #2,658
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:45pm Feb 7, 2020 2:45pm
an old chart of Swede revisited
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Click to Enlarge Name: SWEDE UNDERLYING TREND.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #2,659
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:46pm Feb 7, 2020 2:46pm
Food for thoughts

work in some limits when the Underlying Trend (see previous chart of yours revisited) is not too strong - an idea to follow

This means that the Relationship between Price and Time is similar in both Cycles .

Which means that the scaling is stable - we are de facto in Range
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SWEDE SAME AREA DIFFERENT FORM.jpg Size: 69 KB
  • #2,660
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:53pm Feb 7, 2020 6:53pm
H.W. Steele about Music and the Law of Vibration

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