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Trading Made Simple

  • #100,021
  • Jan 26, 2020 5:46pm Jan 26, 2020 5:46pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks. So what be your advice i should look at if trading just one instrument for the Eu session?
I trade the Daily timeframe and only trade once a day. I can look for trade and also manage trades during the European session if I want but I chose to do it once during my morning Sydney/Tokyo open hours.

Trading the Daily is much simpler, less stress and better chance of profitability over a 12 to 36 months period. You need to work on entries and exits with a proven money management strategy.

Three examples below, 12 months 2019 EU Daily - same entry and exit rules, same $10k account deposit, ..use different % risk per trade, ... no average down, no martingale nonsense, ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Example A EU compounding 10k 2019D1 data.png Size: 23 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Example B EU compounding 10k 2019D1 data.png Size: 23 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Example C EU compounding 10k 2019D1 data.png Size: 24 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,022
  • Jan 26, 2020 5:52pm Jan 26, 2020 5:52pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} {quote} Yes. You did not give >leverage level >initial account deposit >margin call level >account stop out level >typical spread >typical slippage It makes a huge difference in the trading plan if you are trading an account of $100 versus an account of $10,000. Also, the setup TDI giving a signal (I will assume you mean green cross red) as your entry criterion does not follow Big E's teaching. That signal is ONLY an indication that you now must look at several other criteria to determine if entry conditions have been met. That is why he...
Well, the question i am asking my self then is more like: Why should i even bother with a TDI signal (green cross red) if they are not giving any advantage at all.

I am fully aware of that the TDI indicator on its own isn't enough. But if i still have to manually analyse like 20 other criteria including comparing multiple times frames in advance i really cannot see why i should use this indicator at all? I could simply open a chart draw some trend lines, try to mark S/R levels and wait for the right price action to give me a buy or sell point and make my decision.

I thought people like me who are looking for a reliable working trading strategy exactly don't want to deal with tons of XY variables once they get a "signal".

I donīt want to trade with an EA either, but as more as i think about it, that might even much more reliable then trading such "strategy" where anything can be everything at every time.

Also like Emmanuel showed these signals seems to have not even a 50/50 chance of a positive outcome. Now I don't know how this maybe looks better on higher timeframes above the H4. But trading higher time frames with much smaller position sizes even with multiple entries/exists and all that stuff is not something i want to do "manually" at all.

So again i am not looking for a holy grail, also i am not looking for massive amount of pips.

If you ask me for more details on my trading plan, again.

Trading capital would be around 50k-100k, leverage can be up to 1:500, average spread i have for the major forex pairs are 0-3,5. I trade on a ECN account, therefor commissions for each 1 Lot trade would be around $4-5 again.

My "goals" would be to achieve a 2-3% on average per month. I am aware of the fact this can't be achieved every month, and sometimes there will be losing strikes and month maybe even ending with a minus. I think these are quiet realistic goals.

If this can't be done, i am not sure why i should trade at all, i could simply put a mil in a savings account and would end up the same with much less stress and risk involved.

Now let me know what ever strategy you think i can achieve that by trading manually, and only one instrument/market during the EU session.
  • #100,023
  • Jan 26, 2020 6:19pm Jan 26, 2020 6:19pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks. So what be your advice i should look at if trading just one instrument for the Eu session?

here is this is the Daily timeframe trades are done.
- each swing run 3 to 8 candles (the OP did say this) Follow Post#261 basci rules.
- entry on every reversal setup, place the first entry after HA#1 candle closed, open first positions on HA candle#2. Use SL for positions size.
- no averaging down
- close when initial stop loss get hit or opposite setup.
- average UP using Average Daily Range, use pending stop order with position sizing.
- manage all open positions with their average entry price, move SL to protect profits and trail market

note: you will have losses - many small Rs, lots of them but your profitables one are in R multiples.

If EU continues and repeats to make small swings in 2020, we will be profitable ... thanks Big E.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Back-testing D1 EURUSD HA candle entry and exit 2019.png Size: 99 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,024
  • Jan 26, 2020 6:39pm Jan 26, 2020 6:39pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well, the question i am asking my self then is more like: Why should i even bother with a TDI signal (green cross red) if they are not giving any advantage at all. I am fully aware of that the TDI indicator on its own isn't enough. But if i still have to manually analyse like 20 other criteria including comparing multiple times frames in advance i really cannot see why i should use this indicator at all? I could simply open a chart draw some trend lines, try to mark S/R levels and wait for the right price action to give me a buy or sell...

Trading capital would be around 50k-100k, leverage can be up to 1:500, average spread i have for the major forex pairs are 0-3,5. I trade on a ECN account, therefor commissions for each 1 Lot trade would be around $4-5 again.

My "goals" would be to achieve a 2-3% on average per month. I am aware of the fact this can't be achieved every month, and sometimes there will be losing strikes and month maybe even endingwith a minus. I think these are quiet realistic goals.


- yes, you can turn $50k to $400k in 36 months, 3 years, or you can lose 50% $25k of your initial amount and walk away.

- 2~3% average per month is a SMART target. Can be achieved over a longer period of 36 to 60 months.


Now, make a 3 years business trading plan for 2020 to 2022... PLAN_MMXX-MMXXII
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,025
  • Jan 26, 2020 6:44pm Jan 26, 2020 6:44pm
This week Friday Jan 31 is the day the UK will officially leave the EU... the UK will be great again!

The fun would be in the next 11 months - Feb to Dec 2020, with lots of trading opportunities to make money.

Have you done your trading plans for EURUSD, GBNPUSD and EURGBP?

Be prepared for the PERFECT STORM.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TradingMadeSimple into the Perfect Storm 2020.png Size: 302 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,026
  • Jan 26, 2020 6:45pm Jan 26, 2020 6:45pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} You refresh a live chart and have some bars change their open / close values That is how post#25 TDI interpreted what is happening. You say it recalculate. That means you can not not back test TDI. My broker's price data Open High Low Close values remain the same in my terminal history. Re-starting MT4 and refreshing charts will not open the OHLC price data. I know the problem with that broker you are trading with...Goodluck! The TDI#25 will remain the same on you chart until you re-start your MT4 or refresh your charts or re-load your indicator....
TDI Red Green.mq4 (non repainting) ... it re-paints its history on refreshed charts.
By saying I am wrong, you are telling readers that post#25 TDI red green does not repaint some crossovers when the chart is refresh.

TDI RealTime.mq4 (repainting) ... it is updating on every price tick,
By saying I am wrong, are you denying that the TDI green / red line does not move up and down with price.

Yea right. Try this Emmanual
>Load a realtime TDI on a live M1 chart
> Zoom in real close on the TDI red / green lines
Don't have a heart attack when you see how those two lines follow price.

By the way, who care's what you did many times years ago. The readers want to understand how to use the TDI not what you did or not do many years ago.
  • #100,027
  • Jan 26, 2020 6:57pm Jan 26, 2020 6:57pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} here is this is the Daily timeframe trades are done. - each swing run 3 to 8 candles (the OP did say this) Follow Post#261 basci rules. - entry on every reversal setup, place the first entry after HA#1 candle closed, open first positions on HA candle#2. Use SL for positions size. - no averaging down - close when initial stop loss get hit or opposite setup. - average UP using Average Daily Range, use pending stop order with position sizing. - manage all open positions with their average entry price, move SL to protect profits and trail market...
Thanks, I will look at this daily chart in detail tomorrow.

But i think trading the daily is no option for me right now. Setups are rare if trading only one pair. Remember i don't want to look at other instruments more than 1.

Secondly, even if much easier to achieve a better risk/reward and the quality of the signals it self, there is not much i will learn from spotting maybe 1 possible trade per month. I would have to leave trades open for days + managing them, leaving them open for days maybe weeks. At least not with my current knowledge level.

Also it would require large SL, with trading full lots per trade i could not sleep with, also my account would be undercapitalized if i only want to risk 1% per trade.

1% on a 100k account is 1.000. SL would have to be 100 Pips with something like EUR/USD trading 1 Lot, which i guess would destroy your theory of more profits overall than stopped out.

Last but not least this would be more like a long term investments, nothing to pay the bills, I could not withdraw money from my brokers account with floating trades open from the Daily...

If the TMS strategy is not good in your eyes for day trading just one instrument is there might be another strategy worth trying out?

With a 100k account 2-3% per month would equal to 200-300 green pips per month, while risking 100 pips per trade at max.

I don't say i want to jump to another strategy again but like you say, with H1/M15 here and the TDI signals i always pick the 9 out of 10 losers. So yes, thats really a pain in the .. You win, lose, win, lose its a zero-sum game like that. And the risk reward can't compensate the losses, i wonder how Tekkies is doing that, he must really have a freaking high win rate because i never see swings where TDI crossed here booking you in at least a 1:2 trade.

Maybe scalping would be another option but i would have to make tons of more trades and with my pure quality of picking the right trades i would be stopped out 9/10 times as well
  • #100,028
  • Jan 26, 2020 7:01pm Jan 26, 2020 7:01pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} TDI Red Green.mq4 (non repainting) ... it re-paints its history on refreshed charts. By saying I am wrong, you are telling readers that post#25 TDI red green does not repaint some crossovers when the chart is refresh. TDI RealTime.mq4 (repainting) ... it is updating on every price tick, By saying I am wrong, are you denying that the TDI green / red line does not move up and down with price. Yea right. Try this Emmanual >Load a realtime TDI on a live M1 chart > Zoom in real close on the TDI red / green lines Don't have a heart attack when...

hey Tekkies

you have a different meaning of re-painting and realtime update of the the TDI versions.

what I said is that the TDI#25 re-paints all its green, red and yellow lines when the chart are refreshed i.e the term re-painting indicator.
when in realtime live market data, it paints at the CLOSE of the price bar and remains there until the chart get refreshed.

of course the TDI Realtime version updates on every price tick. I have seen this happen for 10 years now since the time Dean Malone update the version in 2008.
Big E still use the version from 2006/2007 and that works in TMS 5-Method as in the old thread and also in this new thread.

you are correct that the TDI green line and red line follow the price ... the CLOSE of the price and the CLOSE price is changing with every price tick.
follow price also mean it lags, right?

Your previous post #73,461 provided wrong information.

TDI Red Green.mq4 (non repainting) ... it re-paints its history on refreshed charts.
for (i=limit-1;i>=0;i--) The -1 sets the counter to bar 1.
Bar 1 is closed and red /green will not change

TDI RealTime.mq4 (repainting) ... it is updating on every price tick,
for(int i=limit; i>=0; i--) The -1 removed sets counter to bar 0.
Bar O is open and is rising and falling with price action there for red /green will move up and down

Here below is USDJPY M15 Jan27 today now...

study for yourself both the TDIs ,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY M15 Jan27 27-1-2020 9-01-38 am.png Size: 52 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,029
  • Jan 26, 2020 7:31pm Jan 26, 2020 7:31pm
here compare these two charts and the TDIs

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY M15 Jan27 27-1-2020 9-01-38 am.png Size: 52 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Jan27 M15 27-1-2020 9-29-48 am.png Size: 53 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,030
  • Jan 26, 2020 7:33pm Jan 26, 2020 7:33pm
and now another M15 candle just closed and a new one opens,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Jan27 M15 27-1-2020 9-29-48 am.png Size: 53 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Jan27 M15 27-1-2020 9-31-54 am.png Size: 53 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,031
  • Jan 26, 2020 7:45pm Jan 26, 2020 7:45pm
we will know at the end of this 1min if we have a reversal candle setup,

now compare the two TDIs...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Jan27 M15 27-1-2020 9-44-03 am.png Size: 53 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,032
  • Jan 26, 2020 7:47pm Jan 26, 2020 7:47pm
yes, we have a reversal candle setup and the TDI#25 shows it confirm the reversal setup with the Stoch(8,3,3) crossed earlier,

again compare which TDI is 'better' when you trade live like the OP did.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Jan27 M15 27-1-2020 9-45-28 am.png Size: 53 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,033
  • Jan 26, 2020 7:57pm Jan 26, 2020 7:57pm
USDCAD Jan27 M15 Tokyo

not trading at this hour but just studying the two TDI versions and discuss the price action and how the different TDIs respond to the price action,

note:

1) the TDI#25 remains as it now until the chart get refreshed or MT4 re-started.

2) the other TDI Realtime version is updated on every price tick data and shows different from the TDI#25 version used by the OP.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Jan27 M15 27-1-2020 9-53-50 am.png Size: 68 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,034
  • Jan 27, 2020 12:31am Jan 27, 2020 12:31am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well, the question i am asking my self then is more like: Why should i even bother with a TDI signal (green cross red) if they are not giving any advantage at all. I am fully aware of that the TDI indicator on its own isn't enough. But if i still have to manually analyse like 20 other criteria including comparing multiple times frames in advance i really cannot see why i should use this indicator at all? I could simply open a chart draw some trend lines, try to mark S/R levels and wait for the right price action to give me a buy or sell...
Apparently, you either have not read the entire thread, or you read it but did not take notes about the entry criteria that Big E used. He did not use "like 20 other criteria". If the number he used is too many for you, then why are you still here debating it? You have been given many things to consider. It is up to you to do the work to determine what combination, if any, works for you. If drawing trends lines and marking S/R is your answer, use it. If TDI green cross red with previous bar size, S/R. etc. works for you, use it. Only you can discover what works for you.

Quote
I donīt want to trade with an EA either, but as more as i think about it, that might even much more reliable then trading such "strategy" where anything can be everything at every time. Also like Emmanuel showed these signals seems to have not even a 50/50 chance of a positive outcome.
You are misusing the data. The green cross red, assuming that is the ONLY criteria Emmanuel was using for the posted results, is not an entry signal!!!!! It is simply an ALERT to check if the entry criteria are met. Think of it as your first and primary filter. Every closed bar without a green cross red has been filtered out from being a possible entry. Then the closed bars that pass the filter get further filtering to determine if an entry can be made. So it is no surprise at all that the posted results were negative, because Big E has already made it clear that green cross red ALONE is not a money making entry strategy.

Quote
Now I don't know how this maybe looks better on higher timeframes above the H4. But trading higher time frames with much smaller position sizes even with multiple entries/exists and all that stuff is not something i want to do "manually" at all.
Apparently, you did not read that Emmanuel has an EA that manages his ME/MEs.
Quote
So again i am not looking for a holy grail, also i am not looking for massive amount of pips. If you ask me for more details on my trading plan, again. Trading capital would be around 50k-100k, leverage can be up to 1:500, average spread i have for the major forex pairs are 0-3,5. I trade on a ECN account, therefor commissions for each 1 Lot trade would be around $4-5 again. My "goals" would be to achieve a 2-3% on average per month. I am aware of the fact this can't be achieved every month, and sometimes there will be losing strikes and month maybe...
Did you calculate 2% gain per month in $$ and in pips per day using 15 trading days per month? Did you calculate how many pips price would have to move if you trade 1 full lot to meet the daily target? Did you consider targeting 10 pips per trade, then calculate what the lot size would be? If so, does that work for you? Have you decided what percentage of your account that you are prepared to lose on a single trade? If it is 1%, then did you convert that into $$ and really think about having THAT MUCH money disappear with a single trade? If you can handle that, then did you consider simply setting your stop loss to that 1% level on EVERY trade instead of using some R:R scheme?
Quote
I think these are quiet realistic goals. If this can't be done, i am not sure why i should trade at all, i could simply put a mil in a savings account and would end up the same with much less stress and risk involved.
You must be on great terms with you bank if you can get an interest income of 2% per month on a savings account. In the US, the current average interest rate PER ANNUM for a savings account is a whopping 0.1%!
Quote
Now let me know what ever strategy you think i can achieve that by trading manually, and only one instrument/market during the EU session.
What I or anyone else thinks is a strategy that meets those conditions for you is irrelevant; it is up to you to consider a proposed strategy, then do the work to determine if it works for YOU. A great chef can give you a recipe and even include instructions for preparing it. Do you think that your dish will come out the same as his?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #100,035
  • Jan 27, 2020 2:15am Jan 27, 2020 2:15am
another example comparing the TDIs ...

pay attention to details.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Jan27 M15 TDI extremes 27-1-2020 4-14-08 pm.png Size: 53 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,036
  • Jan 27, 2020 6:18am Jan 27, 2020 6:18am
if you are one of those who trade price action - 1 2 3, here is one example:

USDCHF Jan27 M15 123 with Stoch and TDI

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF Jan27 M15 123 27-1-2020 8-15-58 pm.png Size: 56 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,037
  • Jan 27, 2020 6:28am Jan 27, 2020 6:28am
Quoting DrDave
Did you consider targeting 10 pips per trade, then calculate what the lot size would be? If so, does that work for you? Have you decided what percentage of your account that you are prepared to lose on a single trade? If it is 1%, then did you convert that into $$ and really think about having THAT MUCH money disappear with a single trade? If you can handle that, then did you consider simply setting your stop loss to that 1% level on EVERY trade instead of using some R:R scheme?
Yes i considered targeting 10 pips per trade. About 20 active trading days to achieve 100-200 Pips.

But hereīs what i noticed.

- I canīt make 100-200 Pips with a single trade on a time frame of lets say H1 where the average daily range is not even 50 pips.
- So how many trades i should do per day, week, month to realize that in a realistic way? How would you handle not overtrading, so chasing for trades while still reaching such target?
- What if you do decide in conclusion just to do 1 trade per day and thats it? What if you lose 10 days in a row and you -50 Pips behind your monthly goals and only have 10 days left?
- What if that one market i want to trade every day like for e.g EUR/USD is in a "bad market condition". (I hear this a lot of times here). What if such condition rests for the entire month? What do you gonna do then? Switch to another market to make money? Remember, i donīt want that...

I mean until now not even one single person here could explain to me how i am able to spot such "bad market condition" BEFORE starting my day. What should i look at? Look if anything is trending or not? Great but on what time frame? Look at H4, the Daily, Weekly? What if all going into different directions (which would probably be the case for nearly all setups you get per day for 19 out of 20 days). What do you do then? Constantly trade against the higher time frame on H1 because otherwise you can not take 1 trade per month?

You see a lot of questions. If you are all so wise, please create some better "trading plan" for me keeping my goals, risks and that "only trade one instrument" rule in mind. Please include as much as crystal clear defined rules for entry/exit as possible so i can REPEAT this like every day i brush my teeth before leaving home.

What ever that requires, i donīt care but please then include details to it. BigE said "look at S/R, look at price action, look at market condition, look at XY" as still had the cheekiness to call this "trading made simple" without even trying to explain these "4x basic stuff". I mean you know... There is not even a track record to find he he was right or wrong like you get with each professional hedge fund or social trader making everything transparent. Last but not least not even backtesting the TDI is possible. Its like selling people the pig in a poke.

Give me something straight forward to follow here and i will do this every day until next month and post my results
  • #100,038
  • Jan 27, 2020 6:31am Jan 27, 2020 6:31am
today is one of those rare occasion when you see two different versions of the TDIs show the same green line and red line values at the Close of a price bar/candle...

EURUSD Jan27 rare M15 moment!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15_2020.01.27 08_15 BEEB BEOB.png Size: 45 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #100,039
  • Jan 27, 2020 7:35am Jan 27, 2020 7:35am
Quoting lddd
{quote} BigE said "look at S/R, look at price action, look at market condition, look at XY" as still had the cheekiness to call this "trading made simple" without even trying to explain these "4x basic stuff".
I extracted only the above from your post.

Are you serious????
Clearly, you have not even done trading 101 yet! You want to be a Master Chef but haven't even done your time learning basic cutting techniques, let alone actually cooking something!

Why in the world would anyone explain to you the basics? There are thousands of resources for you to TAKE THE INITIATIVE and learn them as a PREREQUISITE. If you actually read the entire thread, then you already saw links given to some good learning resources.

Anyway, the title is Trading Made Simple, not Trading made EASY.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #100,040
  • Jan 27, 2020 8:51am Jan 27, 2020 8:51am
So which are the best / actual indicators now to start TMS?
The old non repainting TDI or the repainting one?

As I understood, I need to wait till a candle closes and the look at TDI + PA and decide to entry / exit?
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