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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #45,681
  • Jan 24, 2020 2:05pm Jan 24, 2020 2:05pm
Quoting fxdk
what a bloodbath. did go short at the open for only 60 points. oh well a winner is a winner. now long @28890 sl under todays low. TP open.
Fear kicks in and closed @29000 + 110 points
  • #45,682
  • Edited 2:34pm Jan 24, 2020 2:23pm | Edited 2:34pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} Long 28850
closed all positions at 29040
the market orders are set in place

It was a multi entries position with Market orders starting at 29020, 29000 and so on, the last Market odder triggered was 28850
Exit was manual, thought to be flat over the weekend, as all the positions were in profit, so I got out.

Have been away for the majority of the session, only the last two hours have been following it at the trading desk. Market orders can work, but the positions have to be allowed to breathe.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #45,683
  • Jan 24, 2020 4:31pm Jan 24, 2020 4:31pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} another 100 points and we are there!
It’s kissed below the 20ma and closed above. As it stands, nothing major.

Trump has issued a tweet to say ‘it will work out well’. Not entirely reassuring.

Argh. I bought on the basis that it was determined it wasn’t a global issue. Now apparently it is. I think if this escalates we will touch 28.4k.

Lets hope they contain it over the weekend.
  • #45,684
  • Edited 5:15pm Jan 24, 2020 4:49pm | Edited 5:15pm
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} It’s kissed below the 20ma and closed above. As it stands, nothing major. Trump has issued a tweet to say ‘it will work out well’. Not entirely reassuring. Argh. I bought on the basis that it was determined it wasn’t a global issue. Now apparently it is. I think if this escalates we will touch 28.4k. Lets hope they contain it over the weekend.
Nothing unusual, possibly flight for safety over the weekend, and contrarian move, bull is well and kicking, mid to long TF nothing has changed.
Levels to be aware to the downside - 28129 and 27310 zone, if these levels are well taken, it will be a significant PB, unlike scenario for time being IMHO. But one needs to be preparred for every scenario. if 28567 is hit DOW will do a symetrical 1 to 1 move down; 28772 is the L of a daily High Wave candle.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #45,685
  • Jan 24, 2020 6:06pm Jan 24, 2020 6:06pm
Mean reversion, the market wanted it as more buying room.

I am concerned about high volume bearish options, though. When the institutions want a heavyweight dip they get one. Greed has overcome my analysis twice now, I am furious with myself.

Apple earnings are next week, amongst trade deal signings in the whitehouse. The reasons to lift the market are also there if the institutions want it.
  • #45,686
  • Edited Jan 25, 2020 3:52am Jan 24, 2020 7:37pm | Edited Jan 25, 2020 3:52am
Quoting Neogenesis
Mean reversion, the market wanted it as more buying room. I am concerned about high volume bearish options, though. When the institutions want a heavyweight dip they get one. Greed has overcome my analysis twice now, I am furious with myself. Apple earnings are next week, amongst trade deal signings in the whitehouse. The reasons to lift the market are also there if the institutions want it.
COT is always important, as well as how option are priced.
It is also important to keep in mind the two sides of every option and future. First of all, there are those who write it, otherwise there would be none, and there are those who acquire this instruments. There are different reasons participants have for trading these instruments. CME and other exchanges monitor and report on what they can see, (black pools are outside of this reports) and one needs to be aware of these facts. Simple question comes to mind - who is more advanced the writer (creator) of the option/future or the one who acquires it. The answer has to do with the reason for each trade, like hedging the potential risk and not just profiting from this arrangements, it is not that simple. The data is there, and what is reported is the actual number of acquired contracts, that means written and disposed, the numbers of potentially available but not yet acquired contracts is impossible for ontological reasons to be reported. There is an equilibrium between acquired and written potions/contracts, and this is duly reported, apart from the activities in the black pools. It is useful to interpret these activities correctly and with some precision, avoiding mixing categories.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #45,687
  • Jan 25, 2020 5:32am Jan 25, 2020 5:32am
The timing and volume of the put taking was significant to me.

Several pages back I said there were anomalies in the market with high volumes of puts being taken all of a sudden. Those puts preceded the dip; it was institutional - it happened before any news announcements.

Retail traders are still net short, institutions are still net long.

My concern is how deep this pullback could be. From a technical standpoint, the VIX is near its volatility peak and both the Dow and S&P are oversold (so hopefully any further drops aren’t material).

The one thing that we cannot account for from here is the fundamentals; developing news over the weekend. And those puts are a concern.
  • #45,688
  • Jan 26, 2020 2:14pm Jan 26, 2020 2:14pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: photo_2020-01-26_20-18-56.jpg Size: 109 KB
  • #45,689
  • Jan 27, 2020 2:02am Jan 27, 2020 2:02am
It’s quiet. How’s everyone doing?
  • #45,690
  • Jan 27, 2020 2:31am Jan 27, 2020 2:31am
Long @13390 sl -10 TP dailyopen 13427
  • #45,691
  • Jan 27, 2020 2:37am Jan 27, 2020 2:37am
Sitting on my longs at average 29200...
  • #45,692
  • Jan 27, 2020 2:47am Jan 27, 2020 2:47am
Quoting fxdk
Long @13390 sl -10 TP dailyopen 13427
So -10

Long again @13380 Sl -10 Tp 13420
  • #45,693
  • Jan 27, 2020 2:53am Jan 27, 2020 2:53am
Quoting fxdk
{quote} So -10 Long again @13380 Sl -10 Tp 13420
So -10
  • #45,694
  • Jan 27, 2020 3:09am Jan 27, 2020 3:09am
long x2
Attached Image
  • #45,695
  • Jan 27, 2020 3:14am Jan 27, 2020 3:14am
Quoting fxdk
long x2 {image}
SO BE
  • #45,696
  • Jan 27, 2020 4:32am Jan 27, 2020 4:32am
DOW long at 28577
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #45,697
  • Jan 27, 2020 4:34am Jan 27, 2020 4:34am
Quoting 2be
DOW long at 28577
reason - bottom of symmetrical 1 to 1 move on Daily TF SL 150 pips just in case as this trade is not hedged
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #45,698
  • Edited 5:22am Jan 27, 2020 5:01am | Edited 5:22am
I still holding my long on DOW.
But this drop was a bit scary .
Edit : I'm 80% confident about this.
Entry @ 28722 . TP @29227
  • #45,699
  • Jan 27, 2020 5:05am Jan 27, 2020 5:05am
Quoting 2be
DOW long at 28577
Added to the long position 28500 at the round number
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #45,700
  • Jan 27, 2020 5:28am Jan 27, 2020 5:28am
Quoting Neogenesis
It’s quiet. How’s everyone doing?
i myself still holding my longs. added 100 @28.500. will have to wait, no more add-ons for the time being.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
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