Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

Happy New Year Traders!

Hope that you all have enjoyed time with your family and friends over the Holidays.

Let's make 2020 the best trading year yet!

Now that the Holidays are over.... let's get back to making some money in the markets by riding the coat tails of the MM's and targeting the retail sheep.

I have my eye on a currency pair that has many stars aligned.

Read more about it here:

https://sentifx.com/share/ff/post/eo...irst-analysis/

Let's make money together.

UJ was a successful trade of the new year.

+80 points x 10 leverage = 800 pts.

I exited full position at stops. Sorry retail.

Very good way to start the year.
Congratulations

Thanks Merka, was an easy trade where all the stars aligned as mentioned in the analysis prior.

Now we stalk the market for the next opportunity.

UJ is a perfect example of how MMs took price down to clear stops then take price back up.

This is why taking most or all off at the key areas like stops is so important to be profitable trading FX and why most retail lose. They follow the herd, hold on for dear life to losers, hope winners go to the moon, or cut profits very short. If we havent reached a high probability target... the trade is on.. let it play out more.

You want to have a bias based on something reasonable (trading sentiment changes, retail overloading, market structure analysis, seasonality, etc) and take the trades with the highest probabilities to get in a trade.

You want to get out of a trade at high probability targets or where you know youre wrong.

Clearing daily or weekly stops is one of the high probability targets.

End of Week Analysis is ready.

https://sentifx.com/share/ff/post/eowa/eowa-200112/

Why is it called End of Week instead of beginning of week? Because sometimes it covers what happened the week prior and all analysis is based on currently where we are based on the last trading week.

With one HUGE trade last week, there was really no reason to go after anything else.

Let's get the retail fish again this week!

AU took out stops above as expected, one of my orders didn't trigger by 1/3rd of a PIP.

It happens.

Waiting for the next opportunity.

SentiFx
What about UJ for this and next week?

What do you see drsa1970?

The beauty of using the SentiFX Methodology is not only does it align you with high probability trades - but it keeps you out of the bad ones.

Take a look at EURUSD. You'll see the MM's pushed price down to manipulate the market for 3 reasons:

1. To get better pricing before they take it long.
2. To get retail on the short side so their stops become buy orders to help lift the offers (move the market price up).
3. To create the illusion and play on behavioral psychology that the market was going down to take out stops below.

Why didn't we take the trade (as a sell)?

Market Structure looked great on the Sell Side.

But using the Sentiment Analysis Tool, we were able to see that EURUSD was still in the buy zones. We also used the Sentiment Analysis Tool to analyze the Basket of USD currencies and most of them were clustered in the Sell Area... which means USD is a Sell.... therefore EURUSD would be a Buy - not a sell.

Bottom line - we look for alignment of Sentiment and Market Structure (at a minimum!!) before taking trades. The more confluence we have - the higher our probabilities to profit.

This kept us from taking a losing trade - which is a win.

Current Sentiment Basket Analysis for USD.

Looking at a USD Chart, where are the Stops? Where does it look like MMs are targeting?

So what is a Basket Analysis when it comes to Sentiment?

We take a common currency, say USD and we compare the Retail Sentiment across all USD pairs. By putting USD as the Base Currency (USD/xxx), we are able to compare apples to apples and see when retail is shifting positioning or over positioning either for or against the USD.

Using the Sentiment Analysis Tool, we are able to do this for any single currency (Say EUR, or JPY).

This allows us to look at Sentiment over an entire currency set to see if it is a BUY, SELL, STRONG BUY, or STRONG SELL.

As we know, betting against retail gives us a strong edge. Being able to see how retail is positioned towards a particular currency amplifies that edge and gives us Sentiment Strength/Weakness insight.

One of the greatest achievements is when one of the traders in our group sees the same trades that we do.

One of the members saw EU and AU short before the End of Week Analysis was posted.

While doing the Analysis, it was the biggest opportunities I saw as well.

PIPs are there to take when you have the tools and the know how.

Trade well,

Charles

Well done bro.
Would you mind to post also the analysises for these 2 profitable trades.
It's always nice to compare the analysis before the fact and the outcome of that analysis.
Cheers

Hi Merka, sure thing

https://sentifx.com/share/ff/post/eowa/eowa-19-jan-20/

Price took out stops now and is stalling so I took most off and moved stops to BE.

DXY, what do you see?

Professional Traders were able to use the Sentiment Shift to Scalp 10-12 pips from the AU pop.

People think it's the extremes that matter with Sentiment. It's a factor but not the strongest factor. The shifting of Sentiment and MS are key to getting in early for $$$

Did you get some?

Current USD/XXX basket analysis - what does it look like?

Poor retail trying so hard to short the Dollar.

It's due for a pullback but the dollar shorts have been in pain for a long time.